Thread: Rod's Account Talk

From yesterday...

Originally Posted by Rod

Because Mr. Market has rallied +30% off of the 23 Mar lows, I would not be surprised if Daddy Fed allows Mr. Market to consolidate at least 10% in the very near future. I just hope that now I am in, that I do not get caught up in that... as I am willing to ride the S&P 500 to just below its 50 EMA. That is currently about a 3% decline. We know all too well that a 3% decline can occur on any given day.

And a near 3% decline happened today. Go figure, right? But, one thing that I can take solace in is that the S&P 500's 50-EMA was tested numerous times today and held. Furthermore, the last candle was on strength for all 3 indices. After today's volatility, hopefully all of that is a good sign leading into next week.

Maybe you can relate with me... very seldom do I make a perfectly timed IFT. (A warning if you follow me!) The last time I did was actually when I IFT'd out of (F) at its all-time high in March. But for equities, I usually seem to be a day early going into them. I was a day early when I attempted to catch that relief rally in late Feb. That scared me into (F) where I recouped 1.78% of those losses.

So, what will Monday bring? Was I a day early again? But, if I'm being honest, I likely would not have made an IFT today if I was still sitting in (G). Therefore, I cannot claim that this time around.

I am a bit nervous going into next week. And because I will now be down 3% - 4%, I do not tend to sell at a loss that great. So, if Monday is another selloff, I guess I just got caught up in that "10% consolidation" if it actually ends up being that much. What I don't want is to be caught up in that test to the 23 Mar lows, if it comes. Boy, would that just be my luck, huh? Here I was warning everyone about it all along... then I get caught up in it myself while trying to test out the 3-5 day confirmation rule. I sure hope that's not the case.

At any rate, (let me know if my math is wrong) there have now been two consecutive weeks of overall losses in the Dow, S&P, and Naz. Bad sign? What will next week bring? I guess we shall see!

God Bless

Effective 1 May: 70 (C) 30 (S)

My calculations for the past couple of weeks:

Last Week:

DOW: -1.84%
S&P: -1.23%
NAZ: -0.06%


This Week: A rather flat week.

DOW: -0.13%
S&P: -0.12%
NAZ: -0.20%

Yeah... I like to say, "NAZ" with a "Z"!

(A warning if you follow me!), he says..
👋😬Marvelous training, however. Fwiw, Mr Market doesnt like me either. Buckle up.

The latest from PPT...

Interestingly, he is convinced that Mr. Market will not revisit the Feb highs for at least another few years. Seems a bit far-fetched. But then again, what do I know. Furthermore, he believes that Mr. Market will decline far beneath the 23 Mar lows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTJDavjtbkA&t=828s

Originally Posted by Rod

The latest from PPT...

Interestingly, he is convinced that Mr. Market will not revisit the Feb highs for at least another few years. Seems a bit far-fetched. But then again, what do I know. Furthermore, he believes that Mr. Market will decline far beneath the 23 Mar lows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTJDavjtbkA&t=828s

Does he publish his returns? How long has he been around? Not saying he can't be right or that he is a fraud. Just wondering why he gets so many accolades on TSPTalk. Everyone's got an opinion I guess.

Originally Posted by Happy_Trails

Does he publish his returns? How long has he been around? Not saying he can't be right or that he is a fraud. Just wondering why he gets so many accolades on TSPTalk. Everyone's got an opinion I guess.

I stumbled upon him within the past month. There isn't a whole lot of "intel" on him. Besides for social media accounts, this is about the best you're going to find:

https://www.pivotpoint-trading.com/

https://au.linkedin.com/in/james-farmer-a6083355

I guess one thing you could do is look at some of his videos shortly before the the Dec 2018 sell-off and see how he did with that.

BTW, keep abreast of the recent YouTube video comments. There are some interesting comments as to why he is wrong in his analysis. If he is wrong, I don't think he would admit to it ahead of the market itself proving him wrong because he seems to be dug in with his TA. That can be a dangerous thing, because within the world of investing/trading there is nothing worse than a prideful, stubborn investor/trader who doesn't admit (to themself even) when they are wrong.

Yes, he really is making a strong call in the 5/2 video even suggesting that viewers bookmark it for future reference. Not much wiggle room there. Dug in sums it up

Yeah... I don't lean on every word he says. But, his videos do have some solid takeaways. Just have to separate the wheat from the chaff. One comment to that video is this:

James, respectfully, you had this narrative in 2016 and were very confident in it.

BTW, this guy is quite entertaining. Check him out:

https://www.youtube.com/user/williamstenzel

Originally Posted by Rod

From Friday...

Furthermore, the last candle was on strength for all 3 indices. After today's volatility, hopefully all of that is a good sign leading into next week.

Maybe you can relate with me... very seldom do I make a perfectly timed IFT. (A warning if you follow me!) The last time I did was actually when I IFT'd out of (F) at its all-time high in March. But for equities, I usually seem to be a day early going into them. I was a day early when I attempted to catch that relief rally in late Feb. That scared me into (F) where I recouped 1.78% of those losses.

So, what will Monday bring?

I'm just happy that the S&P 500 closed above its 50-EMA. Five of the last six candles were green, with the closing candle also being green. If this is the beginning of another leg up (after Friday's 3% haircut), I guess I had to take Friday's brunt in order to get in on the action. But, that action must be at least a 4% increase (overall) to make it worth my while.

We shall see how the rest of the week shapes up.

God Bless

Watching todays action I'm seeing a chance to punch out with little to no losses from last weeks IFT...seems as though a factor in todays uptick are the prospects of states loosening restrictions on quarantine and little else. I'm not finding 'good news' aside from feelings about the easing of restrictions.

I am likely moving back to G today in preparation for another drop due to: re-climbing the curve of infection, mutation of Covid-19, and absence of good news. Might not even recognize last Thursdays "loss".

Thoughts?

Add to that Friday's upcoming -21 million jobs report with a 16% - 17% unemployment rate.

You would think that's baked into the prices already, but it could be a reality check for some who think all is well again.