Thread: Rod's Account Talk

Thanks for the reminder Rod. I needed a gut check this morning and I think this was it. I'm still all in G just biding some time. My patience is wearing thin though lol. He keeps things in perspective imo.

Any summation from PPT? Last one I saw he was saying we're at an inflection point, could go up, could go down, but we should know either way this week. Anything different in the video posted? Youtube has been blocked to minimize network load.

He is still saying the markets are in a danger zone. Advises against taking any long positions.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Any summation from PPT? Last one I saw he was saying we're at an inflection point, could go up, could go down, but we should know either way this week. Anything different in the video posted? Youtube has been blocked to minimize network load.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

He is still saying the markets are in a danger zone. Advises against taking any long positions.

Thanks, I do think we're up against a small pull back; so much for being in for 1 May. Then again...

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Any summation from PPT? Last one I saw he was saying we're at an inflection point, could go up, could go down, but we should know either way this week. Anything different in the video posted? Youtube has been blocked to minimize network load.

As usual, there is a lot to digest in his videos. So, I recommend you watch it on your phone. But overall, he remains bearish, expecting a lot of folks to get sucked in due to FOMO before the push to test the lows. In the meantime, he expects the S&P to push to Tuesday's intraday high of 2,921.15 (it is above that now), and then test strong resistance around 3,000. If successful, he can see the S&P making a push to 3,145 before turning down. He says when the downturn commences, it will do so quickly while blindsiding a lot of folks.

Of course, although he recommends avoiding buying at the critical juncture of tests/resistance, there is money to be made if 3,145 is the ceiling before it hits the floor. It's just a matter of getting lucky making that IFT prior to an up day. I just know that if I was to make an IFT today, Mr. Market would eat my lunch tomorrow. And y'all know I'm right about that.

Once again, Mr. Market is reacting on emotions and hope. Not technicals!

It'll likely snap back to reality after investors have fully understood/digested Gilead's purported good news on Remdesivir. I mean, there wasn't even a control group...

The clinical trial involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gile...rug-trial.html

At least China's study had a control group. And remember, it showed that patients on the drug did not improve more than those in a control group.

But outside experts in clinical trial design worry that the results, instead of leading to a clear picture of whether the medicine is effective, will instead muddy the waters further.

The main concern, they say, stems from the fact that the Gilead trial expected to read out this week, which was conducted among patients with severe disease, lacks a control group — that is, patients who are randomly assigned to receive the best treatment available, but not remdesivir. As designed, the only randomization is the duration of treatment: either five days or 10 days of drug. Without a true control group of patients, many experts say, it will be difficult to determine whether remdesivir is effective.

“The overall study itself has little or no scientific value since all patients are receiving the drug,” said Steven Nissen, the chief academic officer at the Cleveland Clinic and lead investigator of many trials for heart drugs that have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

“The study, as designed, is essentially useless and cannot be used by the FDA for consideration of remdesivir for approval to treat coronavirus,” Nissen said.

Peter Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, called the situation “frustrating.”

“For them to run the trial in severe but not include a control group, it’s just such a waste,” Bach said.

The predicament is symptomatic of one of the biggest problems in medicine: Collecting data quickly can actually slow things down if studies are not designed in a way that gives clear, definitive answers.

Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/27/...e-uncertainty/

I don't think the news warrants today's rally, especially given the limited supply of the drug. But, as we all know too well, Mr. Market will quickly gobble up any bit of "good news" nowadays while ignoring the vast majority of negative economic news. It simply makes no sense whatsoever. Mr. Market's reckless disregard of the technicals will catch up with it sooner or later. A day I look forward to!

Originally Posted by Rod

Once again, Mr. Market is reacting on emotions and hope. Not technicals!

It'll likely snap back to reality after investors have fully understood/digested Gilead's purported good news on Remdesivir. I mean, there wasn't even a control group...



Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gile...rug-trial.html

At least China's study had a control group. And remember, it showed that patients on the drug did not improve more than those in a control group.



Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/27/...e-uncertainty/

I don't think the news warrants today's rally, especially given the limited supply of the drug. But, as we all know too well, Mr. Market will quickly gobble up any bit of "good news" nowadays while ignoring the vast majority of negative economic news. It simply makes no sense whatsoever. Mr. Market's reckless disregard of the technicals will catch up with it sooner or later. A day I look forward to!

Yup agreed, not technicals.
But remember that "Irrational Exuberance" still resulted in another 2-3 year HUGE up surge in the late 90's, before reality kicked in.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Yup agreed, not technicals.
But remember that "Irrational Exuberance" still resulted in another 2-3 year up surge in the late 90's, before reality kicked in.

Production has been cut by double digits. Production of most hard goods. Support work is still happening: store clerks, Home Depot, etc. But what are they servicing? They're servicing people who are staying home, likely not collecting a paycheck and/or living on credit.

None of this "rally" makes sense. Safe in G until the zombie madness subsides.

Are you buying today, Rod? Above 50 several days but down so far today.

Originally Posted by Happy_Trails

Are you buying today, Rod? Above 50 several days but down so far today.

If I do, it will be more about the likelihood of AMZN having a blowout earnings report than it is about the 3-5 day confirmation rule for the S&P 500. I would think that a blowout report would carry Mr. Market tomorrow. Therefore, I would be leaning more on it than the 50-EMA. But, both may work together hand-in-hand for a positive day tomorrow. Contemplating going either 100 (S) or 30 (C) / 70 (S).

In case you haven't seen the "Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index":

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.COVID19

CNBC’s Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index is equal-weighed and currently comprised of 29 companies that are working on testing and treating the coronavirus.
The S&P 500 and the CNBC Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index have moved in near lockstep since the market bottomed on March 23.

The S&P 500 and the CNBC Covid-19 Testing & Treatments Index have moved in near lockstep since the market bottomed on March 23. A look at their movement since the March bottom reveals the S&P 500 and the Covid-19 index tend to rise and fall at the same time.

The relationship between the two reveals just how important coronavirus news is to Wall Street investors, who have for weeks said a reliable treatment is key to unleashing financial markets and an eventual return to all-time highs.

Source for quotes: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/cnbc...ebounding.html