And there it is...1522hrs...up up and away.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-announces-new-lending-plans-it-says-will-provide-23-trillion-in-support-for-economy-2020-04-09?mod=mw_latestnews
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And there it is...1522hrs...up up and away.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-announces-new-lending-plans-it-says-will-provide-23-trillion-in-support-for-economy-2020-04-09?mod=mw_latestnews
That was actually what sparked the rally this morning before the bell, right after the jobless claims number. But yeah... typical close to a Friday on a positive day. I'm just surprised it didn't close at the highs.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...HOO&yptr=yahoo
15-minute S&P futures chart:
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/040920e.gif
Interesting...
To quote Cramer on today's Mad Money,
"This Fed move probably makes it so we will not revisit the lows, given the fact that J. Powell is just there standing in there for you."
Of course, as with anything, take it with a grain of salt. He could be right... he could be wrong. We shall see in due time.
Based on the current trend of stock price recovery, by May 1 stocks should be back to positive for the year.. I guess by then or shortly thereafter the sports stadiums will be filled again, the restaurants will be crowded, the airlines will be filled with travelers looking forward to adventures, the hotels will be back to normal, the cruise ships will be full, the malls will be back to pre-covid levels.. (I guess everyone but me, i’m scared of suffocating with this virus so will avoid all of the above) Most of the services that support all those industries will be back as well, most of the small businesses will have weathered the storm ... and most of those that were laid off will have been rehired... No??? Then I guess the stock market looks forward, and all of the economic “pain” From all of the above will have been remedied by actions from the Fed and the last round of legislation... Is this correct?
Followed soon after by The Second Wave of COVID-19.
There seems to be dark forces at work (ahem... The Fed) that is force-feeding Mr. Market "artificial fillers" in order to prevent it from doing what it would naturally do otherwise. And that is to retest the 23 Mar lows.
But, will the force-feeding succeed?
The Fed can throw all sorts of stuff at the financial crisis. But, what about the biological crisis that is certain to continue (and re-ignite) into the Fall? There will likely be a COVID-20, then 21, then 22, then 23, etc., etc.
There's all this talk about a light at the end of the tunnel. Sure, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. But, how do we know it's not the light of an oncoming train?
My end game is capital preservation. As of now, my TSP is down 0.79%. And that's only because I tried to catch one of the first relief rallies, but was a day early. I quickly learned then that there was no timing (or taming) this beast. Although I did have some success in the (F) fund afterward. But for the most part, I've been riding it out in (G).
One thing I must remain open to is the possibility that the 23 Mar lows will not be retested. At least not as soon as I had hoped. Dow 25,000 (50-DMA) might convince me of that in the interim.
I've always thought that the Q1 earnings reports would push Mr. Market a lot lower. But, I don't know if I am convinced of that anymore. Especially seeing how it reacted to the record unemployment numbers... two weeks in a row! Might have to wait until at least Q2 for the economy to catch up with the virus. Perhaps then a retest will come?
But, going back to the original topic... it's a Fed thing. The Fed is keeping Mr. Market artificially propped up. Always has... always will. Until it is abolished or fails. But, that won't anytime soon.
If anyone reading this has faith in The Fed (hook, line, and sinker), then maybe you should pull up a seat and feast at its table. I, for one, don't possess such faith. In The Fed, that is. Therefore, I shall continue to hibernate in (G). But, don't let me keep ya from enjoying the deceitful "fruits" of The Fed. :bandit:
Glad to see you have a great sense of humor. :smile: People will want to venture out.... but I don't think tons of people will be clamoring into crowded restaurants. These 40 days or so will have changed people's habits...at least for a half year or so. Some folks will wear masks, and continue to be weary....until a vaccine comes out....that would be me. But at least I will enjoy going out to the river to day camp and Barbeque with very close family members!
As for the market, no telling....she's rather fickle! Lots of mood swings!!! Lots of ups and downs! Probably much worse than menopause.... plenty of hot flashes too! and whoa to all the best laid plans of mice and Gubmint! The fixes might be a bit rough....in the end, but right now the market is definitely getting pumped up. Eventually need to figure out when to jump in for a one-two day nibble.... timing is tough and dangerous....and its gonna be easy to slip into a hole!
Best wishes to you!:D:D:D
Current moving averages to keep an eye on, should Mr. Market settle above them:
S&P:
50-DMA: 2,909.59
200-DMA: 3,015.96
Dow:
50-DMA: 25,058.20
200-DMA: 26,757.85
Naz:
50-DMA: 8,453.24
200-DMA: 8,394.20
I knew I was confused yesterday re: what darned day it was. lol. So yeah, Mondays open will be fun after this weekends inevitable bland dystopian madness.
To Rods point about the unemployment numbers, totally spot on and I'd add once the March, April, and May numbers are official and codified by USBLS, things will finally be revealed for what they are right now : Dire for non-salaried workers. $1200.00 is useless as a bailout for the 49% living paycheck to paycheck-realistically that's two car payments in 2020. Rents aren't being paid, car notes aren't being paid, credit cards aren't being paid, and so on and so on up the chain until yachts are being repossessed. Oh it's gonna be a wild ride financially through May and June unless there all debt forgiveness/delay for the bad months or an aid package so large we can't even imagine it.
To DreamboatAnnies point re: venturing out if the quarantines are lifted. You're right, peoples habits have changed, some permanently. But people are clamoring to get out, it's not normal for healthy social humans to be cooped up like this. There will be much hugging and handshaking and beers all around, then the second wave will hit and we'll be right back here, only worse because the Executive Branch won't risk the double-tanking the economy on a second shut-in and I don't blame them. More elderly and infirm deaths will come on that second round. We've seen this before with many pandemics. The plague, obvi orders of magnitude worse than Covid, bounced around England for several years. That was when cities had walls and quarantines were enforced by the sword, coincidentally that was also when a few nuns figured out wearing face masks soaked in boiled water might prevent transmission. This is 'just another flu' to a majority who still believe this is being hyped by the media. This will continue killing our parents/peers after we 'open back up'. Five in my bldg alone died last week from Covid-related pneumonia, and that was after strict cleaning and skeleton-crew procedures. Unless current FDA guidelines for vetting a vaccine are lifted, it will take one year to create a viable vaccine, and that's assuming everything goes perfect with trials.
Re: Stocksurfer calling the arenas, cruise ships, et al as opening wide. I think we're going to see some hefty class-action lawsuits soon on those industries. I've already bought 4 plane tickets to destinations OCONUS after June because they're crazy cheap (Ecuador from IAD for $100?!?!), but I'm betting on those being cancelled by the airlines. Those industries will be mandated to try social distancing or other methods to reduce viral transmission which will make the experience cumbersome at first. So cumbersome, non die-hard fans will walk away back to their TV sets, or into their cars for travel, or give up on cruises altogether. Small business are going not going to weather this well unless they get string-free aid packages. Most small businesses can't or won't get on the hook for an aid package loan, let alone go revenue-free for a month or more as they have. I disagree with you there, we're going to see so many small businesses across so many industries go belly up our heads will spin. Further, I'd say we'll see huge businesses fall off the map or get hoovered up into massive conglomerates. Remember Hostess in 2012? Twinkies are an American institution, and they didn't start making those again for 10 months. Did you ever think you wouldn't be able to buy a Twinkie? Get ready for some more of that.
Oh...gonna be such a wild ride unless things change within days of now. May rent is due in 20 days and most didn't pay for April. Better pray for an Easter miracle.