Thread: BigJohn's Account Talk

Re: Top Decile Daily Results - July 07
Well said, I read all the top performers comments (this year and lasts) - even if they are so humble, they emphatically deny they have any skill (you know who you are ). I'm all for continued new highs, but most of the major foreign and domestic indexs have not seen new highs in weeks - that is typically a good sign that the market is about to correct - so I am inclined to describe your position as "sensible", "calculated" etc....but get ready to hop faast 'cause we could see the shorts get squeezed real hard before the correction comes.


I moved this over to my Talk thread...didn't want to muck up ATCJeff's terrific thread. I agree that we have a better than average shot a correction in the near future...I will park in the G until a better buy opportunity presents itself. If the earnings reports come in higher than expected and start to drive the markets higher...I may jump on board, otherwise, I will take my penny every 6 or so days until something demonstrative happens.

Originally Posted by BigJohn

If the earnings reports come in higher than expected and start to drive the markets higher...I may jump on board, otherwise, I will take my penny every 6 or so days until something demonstrative happens.

Ditto, but I may try to work the F-fund in one-day shots here and there.

To the FADO crew from the Friday Night retirement party who did not realize that so many co-workers watched this site...booyah! Not only did we not realize that so many watched, but no one realized that BigJohn was a co-worker and was snapping at the heels of Thunder5 for lead return of the year...that is okay, as I have said all along, I owe most of it to this board and all of the great contributors and a heck of a lot of luck.

Let's make sure that all of our co-workers know the TSP fundamentals and aren't at least contributing 5%...and heaven forbid they aren't throwing everything in the G thinking that is the smart thing to do...see the terrific thread at

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread...eferrerid=2188


BigJohn

Small world and getting smaller every day.

Crappola...hope that isn't a verbotten word. Took one in the shorts today because I got antsy to get out of the I fund...hoped to get a +FV today and almost did, but no cigar. Now it is back to the basics, like remembering my two basics rules...don't sell on a down day and don't get greedy...oh well, it still has been a darn good month. It is a little interesting to see a lot of those that I respect heading into the market as I head out...we will see how it ends up.

Best of luck to all.

Interesting Article...

Global Stock Gains Show Fed `Stepped Up' to Avert Credit Crisis

By Michael Tsang
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Stock markets around the world are rallying in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its lending rate to banks to help avert a credit crisis.
``Clearly the Fed stepped up,'' said Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps oversee more than $173 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial Services in Boston. With the discount rate cut, the Fed ``told the markets they're not going to let this liquidity crisis become a major contagion.''
The central bank on Aug. 17 cut the interest rate it charges banks by 0.5 percentage point to 5.75 percent, acknowledging for the first time a policy shift was needed to contain the subprime- mortgage collapse that roiled financial markets and wiped out $5.56 trillion in global market value in less than a month.
The decision helped ignite a rally in global equities. The Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index of 23 developed markets has since rebounded 5.4 percent, after plummeting 11 percent from its record on July 19.
In the U.S., the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 4.8 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 4.2 percent. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European companies rose 5.2 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index jumped 8.1 percent, the biggest weekly advance since March 2002.
Emerging markets rallied the most after suffering the biggest losses during the global rout. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 8.7 percent since the discount rate cut, after plummeting 18 percent from a record on July 23.
VIX Tumbles
The advance in stocks accompanied a rise in yields of the safest U.S. government securities as investors waded back into riskier assets. Three-month Treasury bill yields increased for a fourth day yesterday to 4.21 percent, after touching a two-year low of 2.505 percent on Aug. 20.
On that day, bill yields tumbled by the most since 1987.
The main measure of U.S. stock volatility also declined as stock markets regained their footing. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, fell 31 percent to 20.72 this week. The drop was the biggest since the CBOE started calculating the index in 1990. Lower readings indicating traders expect smaller share-price swings in the next 30 days.
The Fed's decision bolstered speculation that the central bank will lower its benchmark target lending rate on overnight loans between banks at or before its next meeting on Sept. 18. Goldman Sachs & Co. predicted that the federal funds target rate will fall to 4.75 percent this year.
Interest-rate futures show a 58 percent chance that Fed will lower its overnight lending rate between banks to 5 percent by its Sept. 18 meeting. Forty-two percent are betting on a cut to 4.75 percent by then.

I am not sure if I am buying the idea that we are out of the woods yet, but it does seem to me that the Feds response was a measured step that calmed things down...at least temporarily. Now, if they don't cut at their next meeting...look out.

I had a buddy of mine congratulate me for being in the Top 20; it took me a minute to realize what he was talking about. I have been inactive for about a year, trying to ride things out. It is nice to be back.

I'll add my congratulations, also! Apparently letting your account sit steady paid you well ! Grandma

Yup, time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market.

Nice to hear from you again BigJohn, good work!

Thanks for the welcome back.

I would really like your thoughts on the following:

Taking Warren Buffet's advice back in September of '08, I lept from the G fund into the S...hoping that the end of the downturn was in sight. Well, as we all know it wasn't.

As I watched the market continue to drop, I had many co-workers baililng to the G...even those that had 10+ years before retirement. I told them that it made some sense if they were close to retirement, but if they weren't, all they were doing was locking in a loss. While the drop in share prices was real, it was not set in stone until the shares were sold. I had many tell me I was nuts.

Well...was I?