Thread: 350zCommtech's Account Talk

Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER

It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion

Is this the breakout?

Originally Posted by malyla

Is this the breakout?

It almost was.

Maybe a bounce tomorrow before the big plunge?

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"Maybe a bounce tomorrow before the big plung?"

Just outa curiosity, how big a plunge do you expect?

Originally Posted by Pilgrim

Just outa curiosity, how big a plunge do you expect?

The rule of thumb is that the plunge could be equal to the amount that it took to enter the pattern.

In this case, another 225-250 points lower on the SPX.

Originally Posted by poolman

The Big moves are coming. > 500 point moves.

This is what I was talking about.

This is not the best chart, but it will have to do since I can't figure out how to grab a chart from dailyfx.com.

Here is what is happening. The USDYEN is about to test the March low of 95.71. It's currently at 97.49. That March low is a low that goes back 8 or more years. If it holds, it's rally time. But I don't see it happening. It's only 2% away. The timing is very interesting since the market is about to break out of a triangle pattern. If it doesn't hold, well, we'll know which way the market breaks out of this pattern.

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Put on your adult diapers then read Denninger's (The Market Ticker) two posts today (10/22), just to add to the optimistic party theme.

He's calling for the likelihood of a bond and treasury dislocation, and it sounds painful.

Originally Posted by Bravo Sierra

Put on your adult diapers then read Denninger's (The Market Ticker) two posts today (10/22), just to add to the optimistic party theme.

He's calling for the likelihood of a bond and treasury dislocation, and it sounds painful.

Yes, I've read a lot of his posts so I know what to expect, but today's post got me really scared. He is saying it could happen within days...

KD wrote:

Unfortunately the can has filled up with cement and there is now a very high probability that instead of the can being able to be kicked down the road until next year after the elections the second-level dislocation - the "big one" - is going to happen within days.

That was an interesting read. Guess I don't need sunglasses anymore. Not a ray of sunshine for miles. G is looking good for a few weeks then to see if this plays out?

To hell with all this. I've gotta get myself a large cash position, regardless of where I last "sold".

350Z I don't understand what the USD/YEN number actually means...is it a ratio or something? If the dollar goes up, does that chart go down, or up?

I noticed the dollar has been way up...so if it crashes down, what will that USDYEN chart do?

If we are lucky, there will be a short covering rally tomorrow. we might get to 950 on the apex perhaps.

Originally Posted by Corepuncher

350Z I don't understand what the USD/YEN number actually means...is it a ratio or something? If the dollar goes up, does that chart go down, or up?

I noticed the dollar has been way up...so if it crashes down, what will that USDYEN chart do?

If we are lucky, there will be a short covering rally tomorrow. we might get to 950 on the apex perhaps.

The USD/YEN is 1 USD priced to Yen, or also know as USD/YEN cross. If the chart is down, it means the Yen is up against the dollar. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade causes this. This is what's been happening. For example, when a player such as a hedge fund liquidates, it will force the Yen up.

Don't confuse this with the dollar index. The dollar index is the dollar against a basket of currencies, ie Euro, Pound, Franc, etc...

Their are others that I look at but this is the main one, for now anyway.