Thread: 350zCommtech's Account Talk

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Back to G and now I'm done for the month, CRAP!

Going to try and squeeze one more day out of it -- prob be sorry

Iceland is melting....

Icelandic Stocks Drop 77% as Trading Resumes After 3-Day Halt

By Jakob Lindstroem

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland's benchmark stock index plunged 77 percent, the biggest decline on record, as trading resumed after a three-day suspension and the nationalization of the country's largest banks.
Investors demanded a higher premium to hold Icelandic government bonds, while the price of the country's currency remained ``undetermined,'' according to TD Securities.

The global financial crises sparked the collapse this month of Kaupthing Bank hf, Glitnir Bank hf and Landsbanki Islands hf with debts equivalent to as much as 12 times the size of Iceland's economy. The three banks accounted for about 76 percent of the OMX Iceland 15 Index's value prior to the nationalization.

``We are quite far away from having it up and running in terms of anybody being able to invest, or disinvest in the Icelandic stock market,'' said Lars Christensen, a senior strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. ``Given that we don't have a normally functioning exchange-rate market, a fixed income market, we don't have a clearing system between the banks internally, it's hard to talk about any well-functioning stock market.''

The OMX Iceland 15 fell 2,326.22 to 678.40, the lowest since April 1996. The gauge has lost 89 percent this year, making it the worst performer among 88 equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg News. Four of the 13 other stocks in the index didn't trade, while the six that did accounted for about 8.5 percent of the measure's weighting before today.

Global Stocks Rally
Iceland's record decline came as the U.S. plan to inject $250 billion in banks helped send Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to its biggest two-day gain on record. The regional benchmark added 3 percent today, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.7 percent.

Trading in Icelandic stocks was halted since Oct. 9 after the OMX Iceland 15 lost 30 percent in nine days as the country's financial system collapsed. Iceland started talks in Moscow today to secure an emergency loan of as much as 4 billion euros ($5.47 billion) from Russia.

There was no trading yesterday in Iceland's krona by foreign banks and the price of the currency remains ``undetermined,'' Beat Siegenthaler, chief strategist for emerging markets at TD Securities Ltd. in London, wrote in a note today.
Currency, Bonds

The currency's bid/ask spread, the price at which traders are willing to buy and sell, was 300/450 per euro on Oct. 10, according to TD Securities.
Investors demanded a yield premium of 473 basis points more than European government bonds, up from 412 basis yesterday, to hold Iceland's 1 billion euros of 3.75 percent bonds due 2011, according to BNP Paribas SA prices on Bloomberg. The bonds yield 8.19 percent.
Among the stocks that did trade today, Alfesca, a maker of salted fish products, dropped 0.95 krona, or 17 percent, to 4.5 kronur. Icelandair Group Holding hf, the country's largest carrier, retreated 0.5 krona, or 3.2 percent, to 15 kronur. Marel hf, an Icelandic meat-processing company, lost 0.6 krona, or 0.8 percent, to 71.1 kronur.

`Need Capital'
The country should seek aid from the International Monetary Fund and later apply for European Union membership and adopt the euro, Foreign Minister Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir wrote in Morgunbladid on Oct. 13.

``There's not that much left to trade,'' said Ross Porter, a Norway-based portfolio manager at Skagen ASA, which manages $10 billion. ``They will need capital.''
The OMX Nordic Exchange said in a release late yesterday that it set the prices of the three nationalized banks to zero in the index after ``not being able to receive valuations from market participants.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jakob Lindstroem in Stockholm at jlindstroem@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 14, 2008 12:06 EDT http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...A&refer=stocks

Hi 350Z-

If Denninger's "Market Ticker" website isn't on your reading list, it should be. Yes, he's very opinionated and somewhat extreme- he's also been very right lately. He's got archives available that are also enlightening.

An excerpt from Monday-

"So the die was cast and Paulson and Bernanke's refusal to endorse this step in the G7 meeting Friday was literally rammed down their throat.
Now, however, we have a new problem.
You see, if there are defaults, they now flow straight through to sovereign balance sheets. The IMF is now stating that there are three nations that are insolvent now, and there will be more. You can bet on it.
Amazingly, The United States is not anywhere in the worst shape here. While we certainly have our problems those over in Europe are much greater, but they're also distributed - not every nation over there is in an equal amount of trouble."

Regards-

Originally Posted by Bravo Sierra

Hi 350Z-

If Denninger's "Market Ticker" website isn't on your reading list, it should be. Yes, he's very opinionated and somewhat extreme- he's also been very right lately. He's got archives available that are also enlightening.

It is. His videos are very good too. I've posted a few of his videos already.

Originally Posted by Denninger

"The IMF is now stating that there are three nations that are insolvent now, and there will be more. You can bet on it.
Amazingly, The United States is not anywhere in the worst shape here. While we certainly have our problems those over in Europe are much greater, but they're also distributed - not every nation over there is in an equal amount of trouble."

Are the above nations problems our bad paper? Or did they make the same boneheaded loans we did?

Is the USA the cause of this or were we just the bad example that other nations followed? (If Johnny jumps off a bridge...?)

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Back to G and now I'm done for the month, CRAP!

I think the up 900 was actually a panic buy (a term not used often) and now reality sets in. But IMO I will take the up 900 down 300 days as long as we have an upward trend.

I think we have at least 2 more huge up swings this month.

Originally Posted by KevinD

Are the above nations problems our bad paper? Or did they make the same boneheaded loans we did?

Is the USA the cause of this or were we just the bad example that other nations followed? (If Johnny jumps off a bridge...?)

I heard European and Asian countries heavily invested in the US financial stock market. Just like we have Barclay managing the TSP, they got the US banks and IBs managing their retirement funds or their savings. Some of them got billions invested in the US banks.

Originally Posted by Braveheart

I think the up 900 was actually a panic buy (a term not used often) and now reality sets in. But IMO I will take the up 900 down 300 days as long as we have an upward trend.

I think we have at least 2 more huge up swings this month.

I hope that you are right about the up trend.

I just don't have a good feeling about it. The bond market is scaring the crap out of me. Yesterday, for example, as the markets sold off from 400+ to -76, bond yields actually closed up on a high. Where did the money go? And today, we are seeing the same thing. Market down 300 points but bond yields are up significantly. This is not normal.

I hope that I'm wrong but we might be headed for an "OH ****!" moment. The IFT limits is killing us in this situation.

Karl D. has been warning about forthcoming bond market dislocation for some time, if banks' solvency statuses (stati?) are not brought into the light instead of being enabled to keep playing "pretend" with all the liquidity. Lending is not happening, banks all playing poker w/each other, nobody knows what cards the other bank is holding. Nobody's willing to bet, nobody's willing to call. Everybody's just sitting there having a staredown at each other.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

I hope that you are right about the up trend.

I just don't have a good feeling about it. The bond market is scaring the crap out of me. Yesterday, for example, as the markets sold off from 400+ to -76, bond yields actually closed up on a high. Where did the money go? And today, we are seeing the same thing. Market down 300 points but bond yields are up significantly. This is not normal.

I hope that I'm wrong but we might be headed for an "OH ****!" moment. The IFT limits is killing us in this situation.

You are right I have no clue where that F Fund will go but is it possible for it to drop to $8.

I should have moved to the G yesterday and I really don't believe America was shocked at retail reports seriously it was an excuse to sell but I see the big boys moving in and really putting targets on specific stocks. I would say the small caps are really in trouble which now leaves us with the C Fund.....WTF or the I Fund if you roll the dice. I should have stayed in the G Fund all year LoL less stress and better gains which is pathetic since with inflation the value actually drops with that 4 cents per month.

Bernanke, "Crisis will end when trust is restored".

No **** Ben. Myself and everybody with half a brain have been saying that all along. So, why don't you force everybody to come clean so the markets can have transparency and move on?

My wild ass guess: If that happens, Hanks friends on Wall St. will be/are insolvent.