Thread: 350zCommtech's Account Talk

Originally Posted by hessian

Hi 350,
I was hoping you could pass along some advice, prognostic analysis on following: Think that Monday COB would still be good to move into F??

With "F" up big on Friday, and perhaps again by COB Monday, given this situation, would you feel comfortable with still making a move into F - for Tuesday, and rest of week?

Could an unforeseen, but possible "bail-out" ruin the run for the F-Fund?

I've waited (held to TSP Board's BS Limits), and yes, missed a couple opportunities as a result, even though I know many folks continued to rebalance their accounts as usual. Personally, I wanted to give it 1 month, to see if TSP's threats were real/BS. Very much appreciate any perspective you can provide, for jumping into "F" (for COB Monday)!
VR

I'll address the bailout situation first. Basically, there is no bailout.

What is happening at the moment is a group of banks, that have bought insurance from ABK, are being asked to inject capital(that they might not have) into ABK, so that ABK might be able to stay in business, in the event that they might have to pay out insurance on these Bank's CDOs.

If you're not yet ROFLYAO, please reread that long sentence.

Now, as for staying in the F fund or moving to the F fund for Tuesday, I'm not sure about that. Because as they say, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Although, if we were under the 2 IFT restriction, this would not even be a question for me.

Here is a chart of the TNX. As you can see, the RSI suggest there's room to go on the downside(good for F fund). The MACD suggest there is lots of room to go on the downside(very good for F fund). There is a potential for TNX to bounce at around 3.42%, but any bounce will probably be short lived. Perhaps just a one day bounce on Tuesday. The other problem for the F fund is TNX will be testing the lows soon. I'll be a question of how low can yeilds go?

Attachment 3421

Strong support for the Dow at 12200 followed by 12000. Dip buyers will come in soon.

Attachment 3422

Lots of support for SPX. It'll get scary if 1300 fails.

Attachment 3423

Nasdaq Composite has support at 2250, but I think we will see 2200.

Attachment 3424

To summarize, IMO, the TNX suggest that the markets might have just started another leg down. We should now test the January lows and maybe make lower lows. On the hand, if the market rallies signifcantly on Monday and Tuesday, then I am wrong and we might just be going sideways. My bet is on the bond market be right.

I'll wait to see where we are on Monday morning but, at the moment, I'm thinking about getting out of the F fund for Tuesday and then getting back in the F fund for Wednesday.

Good luck.

Thanks 350,
I knew that was not an easy question, and yes I did ROFLYAO, on that scenario described!- sounds like just another money-laundering scheme -same ol' game as in past -that got us into this mess!!

Otherwise, tough choices, tough market.
I think you're right about seeing what Monday brings - movement, news, etc...
Thanks again, especially for putting so much effort into your reply!!
VR

Originally Posted by hessian

Thanks 350,
I knew that was not an easy question, and yes I did ROFLYAO, on that scenario described!- sounds like just another money-laundering scheme -same ol' game as in past -that got us into this mess!!

Otherwise, tough choices, tough market.
I think you're right about seeing what Monday brings - movement, news, etc...
Thanks again, especially for putting so much effort into your reply!!
VR

You're welcome.

IMO, these banks have painted themselves into the proverbial corner. They are begging for cash from overseas to lend and then have to give some of that cash to ABK in order to maintain their rating so that the house of cards does not collapse. So that ABK can pay off the defaulted paper. LOL Robbing Peter to pay Paul. This is like a car wreak that people can not look away from.

ISM comes in below 50, at 48.3(contraction), but just above the expected 47.5 and the Yen carry trade is put back on in a big way. I guess the recession has been canceled. LOL!

Bond yields were hinting at the ISM as they were up early in the morning. With new orders down, factory spending down, and the financials still down about 1.8%, this rally attempt is BS.

The BOE and ECB rate announcements will be on Thursday morning. We might see a cut from the BOE or maybe both, which means the dollar will rise.

F fund down 2 cents at the moment.

Check out TMA!!!

Originally Posted by Show-me

Check out TMA!!!

Margin calls!!!! LOL!!!!


Markets are bouncing off the bottom of the channels. Tough decision today.

HOLD in F Fund - Or move to G FUND ---- THX

$1/share

SCA exploring 'all strategic options'

By Andrew Edwards
Last update: 11:35 a.m. EST March 3, 2008

In a recent research note, Goldman Sachs analyst James Fotheringham said SCA's current business is worth practically nothing, noting the company's $3.3 billion in expected losses "exceeds SCA policyholders' surplus and reserves of $2.6 billion." Goldman, in the note, said it is dropping coverage of the company.http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...E8FC640B6E4%7D

Originally Posted by Show-me

Check out TMA!!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...dist=sp_inthis

Originally Posted by Braveheart

HOLD in F Fund - Or move to G FUND ---- THX

My gut says to stay in F but my brain says to be safe and go to G. I'm still trying to decide.