Thread: LTJPFED's Account Talk

Trust a strong trend, if you can. You can always go back to G if you get spooked or just reduce your risk. Then, take a fresh look at it the next month. But most importantly, follow the things that might affect your TSP every single day. It's kind of like maintenance on your car or yard work; if you do a little along the way, it's not such a monster.

Today is my spook day lol. I am moving back to the pad. 100% G. I was going to just move a portion but with not making anything last year a 2 or 3% gain within a week I will take it and wait until next month to see where we are sitting. I'm no expert but learning. The levels to me seem a bit stretched but as the pros say markets can get stretched in either direction for some time. I just feel for me personally this makes the most sense. I would have loved to ride in S and I for a bit longer, heck I even took a look at moving to F with this move since F has been gradually going down for a while but couldn't make that jump just yet. Think G is the safest play for me today to start the week. Best of luck to you all no matter what you do the rest of the month!

The only good experience I've had in F Fund (that I can remember) was right when the pandemic was setting in. C, S and I Funds were tanking and I moved to 100% F and made some small gains for several days. When the pandemic downturn was settled in, even the F Fund was losing. So, my personal opinion is that the F Fund is only occasionally useful. For me, I wouldn't go there just because it seems like it's due for some positive action. However, G fund has never let me down when I wasn't sure.

Just my thoughts. I'm not an analyst. I'm not an expert.

Made 1st move of the month to 100% S COB. Almost did it on the 1st, almost did it yesterday, 3rd time is the charm. Had the "gut feeling" to hold out a bit longer to move out of G. I really don't like the action but things have run down for what about 5 out of 6 trading days...I know they could run more just hope things bounce up from here, I just hope this is the good day to make the move. We shall see. Best of luck to you all today and this month!!

I admire your strategy and I hope it works out for you. I just went 100% G after taking a beating, so I fully predict Monday will be awesome. <<<<sarcasm alert>>>>

Thank you, I hope things work out for you as well. I know last year I spent numerous times watching from the sidelines because I was hesitant to believe the markets could continue to rise but they did. I just hope I'm not making the wrong move thinking things can't keep going down from here. At least I have 1 move so if next week is the total landslide down I could jump out if needed. Where is that crystal ball lol.....

If the markets could just close at these levels today....wishful thinking I know.

Crazy swings lately. You never know which way we will end the day which makes that noon cutoff so frustrating. I trade my wife's account for her company and it's nice to have much more flexibility than the TSP. I just can't believe we are so locked in. I remember the days of multiple moves a month, it was a bit nicer back then.

Anyway congrats to those who moved back to the pad on the 5th. If I knew it was going to reverse and head much higher I probably would not have moved out of G but oh well. It worked out for you guys and that is awesome! Hopefully we can keep these gains today but you never know. I am nervous about things continuing higher but you know I get gun shy. Like others have said I think we are in a trading range, kind of wider than I thought too. I am still looking for that crystal ball lol.....

I noticed some new people around here which is great. Welcome if I don't say it within your thread. There are lot of really wise people here and some solid sources as well. Too many to list but if you get a chance to read some threads, especially those who like charting, you will find these people have a good idea of where we are and sometimes which way we will break. There are also some great sources, videos and those I follow on youtube, thanks nnut. Tom, IT, DBA, Bquat, CH all very good sources imho. There are plenty of others too but welcome to the site and if you get a chance look for those threads! Oh there are also a few here who do some individual stock and fund picking and once in a while will share which ones they are watching, buying or selling. You can even pick up some of those in some of the videos that nnut posts. Great resources all around!

Originally Posted by LTJPFED

If the markets could just close at these levels today....wishful thinking I know.

Ain't that the truth. I recall many days where it did do just that, but this volatility is a doozy. The VIX is slipping lower, so maybe we can have a day of stability.

Something to think about which I've seen a couple places this morning, is tomorrow is another 10 yr Note Auction. Last time it didn't go so well and rates went up. I'm not sure but if tomorrow's auction doesn't go well again would rates typically move up again? If so would the markets get jittery in the afternoon and perhaps pull back again tomorrow by the close? Not looking too far ahead but 1 day for us in TSP land does matter. Not sure if this is something to be concerned about.....

Originally Posted by LTJPFED

Something to think about which I've seen a couple places this morning, is tomorrow is another 10 yr Note Auction. Last time it didn't go so well and rates went up. I'm not sure but if tomorrow's auction doesn't go well again would rates typically move up again? If so would the markets get jittery in the afternoon and perhaps pull back again tomorrow by the close? Not looking too far ahead but 1 day for us in TSP land does matter. Not sure if this is something to be concerned about.....

Bond yields are down this morning on 10 Year Treasuries -- so that's a good sign.

Decided to move back to G 100%. I have had some good gains this month and just uncertain which way we will continue to grind. I can see cases for us reaching new highs this week or next but I can also see us fading back down a bit. Not sure I can stomach the ride so locking in gains at COB. Wish you all the best regardless where you sit today. I hope you make more regardless!! $$$