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Thread: LTJPFED's Account Talk

  1. #133

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Talk about last minute...decided to dip my toes. I know I know. The last time I did a move before either Fed decision or big report I had to wait until the retrace before taking gains. I'm just hoping if we do trade away tomorrow that it isn't a huge drop and doesn't last but a few more days. I could be wrong but thinking we see more of a bounce over the next few days. I know September can be deadly and we still have time to run further down but I'm really stepping out here to try and catch a bounce. Some of the charts seem to be holding up so that is one of my reasonings for this move. Been looking more at fundamentals and technical aspects so far this year. Even though in a bear market we still need to look at those things. I think a bigger move is coming one way or another.

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  3. #134

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    So just an update...
    Went into TSP and noticed my allocation was not what I thought I put through. Instead of 50 G 25 C and 25 S it is reflecting 75 G 12 C and 13 S. Good for me I suppose in I didn't lose as much as I thought yesterday but bad in that if the markets take to the upside tomorrow I am not getting as much as I thought. Also my autotracker is off so there is that issue lol. I tell you guys we need to double and triple check TSP when we do our transactions. It is crazy.

    Maybe I will be able to add more tomorrow if we get a further decline into the close today and we'll see what the morning looks like tomorrow.

    Best wishes all!

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  5. #135

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    That's scary. 50, 25, 25 isn't really close to 75, 12, 13, so what the heck is going on? Thanks for the head's up.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  7. #136

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Yes I agree. I was totally shocked when I logged in today. Been such a crazy week. I should have logged in yesterday. I'm frustrated to say the least but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Just when you expect to see one thing and it's no where close to what you thought you had done it is crazy.

    Going to be double and triple checking things now.

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  9. #137

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Lots of things not looking good right now....perhaps my move was hasty in thinking we were due for a bounce. I missed a couple things and wanted to overlook a few others, to the point of actually dipping my toes into C & S. I didn't do any measuring or looking at the days but this fall from the recent highs feels like it has come down faster than the move up from the June lows. I know markets can move quick though. I'm still hoping for a bounce here soon. But I suppose we could run down and hit a new low before that happens.

    Not sure what to think of the VIX other than it has inverted H&S, perhaps 2 depending on how you look at it. I know, like others, have been scratching their heads as to why the VIX hasn't moved much higher since the markets have been coming down. IDK the answer. But makes me nervous. If I'm guessing here, which I am, we probably could see something propel the VIX up into the 37+ level. Perhaps that is the panic selling we will get, if it happens.

    As Tom pointed out the other day, take a look at the DOW Transports. Multiple H&S within one another. That looks pretty ominous in itself and maybe that is what will be leading us further down. Especially since we know FEDEX has had bad news already and I'm sure more companies will come. Maybe it is a domino affect that happens from companies bad earnings, outlooks, layoffs, whatever you want to say, perhaps that is what will drive everything lower. The rails got their deal so employees will be making, I think, 24% wage increase! If I got a 24% raise I'd feel like I won the lottery. Ok maybe not that exciting but still that is a lot of money. Inflationary? Yeah I think so. Yes this is old news for some of you but things to consider. Transportation companies will be increasing costs to pay for bigger salaries, earning misses, increased costs to ship things, etc. It is going to happen. Maybe this is the big spot where the markets wake up, or maybe they already have. I haven't heard much about this topic, although someone brought it up briefly last week when FEDEX came out with their bad news. So who knows.

    Come to find out I didn't add as much to C & S as I had thought so not getting hit too hard but still a loss is a loss, especially if you sell lower. So close to the end of the month here I'm not sure what I'm doing today. I had thought about making my 2nd move by adding more to equities but this run down is getting me nervous. Yes I though we would retest the lows but I think there is a chance we go beyond that. Maybe it's too early for the sky to be falling here but at some point we will get the panic selling, and not just algos, the markets will tumble and people will be saying I don't want to be near the markets. We aren't there yet. Maybe today or Monday we get a taste of it but I think it's still too early. Global markets and currencies continue to take hits. Maybe once the global recession story comes to fruition then not just US markets but global markets all panic sell and that is where we get our low.

    Bottom line this morning, markets look bad before open, I still am not sure what I am doing(any day of the week lol) today or the rest of September. Just saw crude falls below 80, maybe that will give us a bounce? Sorry to interject that here. So let's see how the morning rolls on. Let's see what the dollar, oil, VIX, treasuries, etc, look like by mid morning, maybe I will add instead of getting out and patiently waiting for October......then again maybe I will just sit on my hands.

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  11. #138

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Sat on hands today. Could run down into the close putting in new low. Sounds good on paper but we could bleed out more next week. I still have a small amount on the table at this point but that's all I will have for now. Still have a few days next week to add or bail with another move if I wanted to depending on situation. Lot's can happen over a weekend. Lot's in the news. Lot's of negativity out there and nothing good.

    Best wishes all!

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  13. #139

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Kind of rhetorical question, how bad can things really get?

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  15. #140

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by joblin20 View Post
    Kind of rhetorical question, how bad can things really get?
    Yeah but great question. And my answer would be who knows. Seriously I am not even sure the markets know where we are in this process. You have some people thinking the sky is falling and we need to all be 100% in cash and some people are saying the markets have come down so far that this is great buy opportunity. Maybe so. But we could run down further. I am maybe somewhere in the middle with a lean to being a bit more in cash. I think the uncertainties right now will rule for some time. Maybe after earnings season and the next bigger reports we could have a better idea if things are more stickier and stays rough for a while longer or maybe we see some things that could mean things aren't quite as bad as some think. I'm sure everyone would have a guess as to where we end up over the next days, weeks and months but really who knows. Wish I had one of those crystal ball thingies lol.

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  17. #141

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    A 50 percent drop from the top is not out of the question. Therefore…S&P 2400 would be a worst flash drop on a major broadening war conflict. The FED is rattling the sabres indicating good times are over…down to stock market crashing business to end the good times and bring inflation under control. The baby boomers and pre-retirement folks are exiting in mass so putting a lot of downward pressure. Those that are trapped need to stay put or really loose on paper any hopes of returning to full value.

    Quote Originally Posted by LTJPFED View Post
    Yeah but great question. And my answer would be who knows. Seriously I am not even sure the markets know where we are in this process. You have some people thinking the sky is falling and we need to all be 100% in cash and some people are saying the markets have come down so far that this is great buy opportunity. Maybe so. But we could run down further. I am maybe somewhere in the middle with a lean to being a bit more in cash. I think the uncertainties right now will rule for some time. Maybe after earnings season and the next bigger reports we could have a better idea if things are more stickier and stays rough for a while longer or maybe we see some things that could mean things aren't quite as bad as some think. I'm sure everyone would have a guess as to where we end up over the next days, weeks and months but really who knows. Wish I had one of those crystal ball thingies lol.

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  19. #142

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Where things end up today is important but there is a chance I'll be moving more into C&S. Early day started deeper in the red but has come back, was even green for a moment. Dollar continues to strengthen, Oil down, usual counters one another, VIX up, Treasuries higher, Global markets in red again. My thought is the markets will continue down eventually but "we are due for a bounce" lol. Stepping in a day early is always my concern because you get another big down day or two takes you a little longer to get that back. But coming into the end of an ugly September with 1 move I'm really leaning to using it to add to C&S.

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  21. #143

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    No go. TSP site issues for me this morning. Didn't want to chance it not working. A couple times had to refresh to see the screen. Maybe someone is telling me something lol.

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  23. #144

    Default Re: LTJPFED's Account Talk

    Are we keying off the 7 day? Sorry don't know how to load images. Not that tech savvy. Link is just a quick snap shot.
    I am going to look at some other charts but if we are keying off a 7 or 8 day average then perhaps algos are selling or buying from those spots? Not sure just a thought.
    If that is the case not much upside at this point. If your not already in I'm not sure a move is worth it. I missed yesterday so was going to add today until I noticed this. Still pondering...


    2022-09-27_9-32-24.pdf


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