Thread: LTJPFED's Account Talk

Added the rest today, COB 30C 70S
Hoping I did the percentages correctly on the TSP site. Still getting used to the amount/% you can move. Maybe I just need more coffee.

I know this is a big risk but isn't every move we make? I'm hoping for that bounce over the next few days. Crossing my fingers the Fed doesn't do or say anything too shocking that would cause an even bigger landslide that what we've seen since last week.

Again hoping to catch some 3 or 4% gain over the next week or so. Short term stay in C/S and I do have my threshold for the loss I'm willing to take so I'll be watching.

Best wishes everyone!

Hindsight lol....

I think maybe these talking heads drive the markets more than I think. During COVID markets were on fire, most of them kept saying we don't know where the high will be but this market is full steam ahead. BUY BUY BUY.
Fast forward to now and most of them are saying where will the bottom be? We don't know but SELL SELL SELL.

I looked back at one of my posts in Nov 2020 and was talking crazily about dropping back to 10700 on Nasdaq and I think it was 3200 or so on the S&P. Only over a year and a half later ROFL. Of course everyone else was making the correct calls in the markets continuing to move higher. I'm still learning what can I say. And in all fairness I've never seen a pandemic in my lifetime and what that would do to the markets with an influx of never-ending support from the Fed.

Honestly I hope we get a bigger selloff and get to some numbers that the "pro's" are talking about. Maybe we get down to 3k even on the S&P. Fine. Bring it on. I have been sitting on my hands since November of last year in some personal accounts so if I can get another 10-12% down from here I'm all in. BUY BUY BUY!!!

As far as my TSP I'll be waiting and watching lol. This last move isn't so bad...yet. If we get a total annihilation and drop another 8-10 or ever 12% and I was in G, I definitely would be adding down there. If this takes time to roll down I'll just add more from G to C/S to try and not make this hit hurt so bad. But hey anything can happen in the short term. If your a long ball person then honestly don't wait too long for that "bottom".

By the way if anyone reads my thread today and can locate that Cycle of Market Emotions could you please post in my thread? Just want it as a reminder.
Thanks

I've seen folks in TSP Talk do this, only to never be heard from again.

The Upturn
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria- Buying at all-time highs

The Downturn
Anxiety
Denial
Desperation and Panic- Looking for a tall bridge
Surrender- Sells at all-time lows

The Bottom and the Recovery
Depression
Hope
Relief
Optimism- Repeating the same cycle expecting a different outcome

Thank you! I know Tom had a picture of it in one of his premium posts one day but couldn't find it.

This is great so thank you! Exactly what I was looking for. Going to reference this every so often so I keep myself in check.

Originally Posted by WorkFE

I've seen folks in TSP Talk do this, only to never be heard from again.

The Upturn
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria- Buying at all-time highs

The Downturn
Anxiety
Denial
Desperation and Panic- Looking for a tall bridge
Surrender- Sells at all-time lows

The Bottom and the Recovery
Depression
Hope
Relief
Optimism- Repeating the same cycle expecting a different outcome

Time for a poll you know…how many folks feel depression on the stock market or is it just anxiety right now?

I know you folks in the "G" fund are anxious to get out and into a buying opportunity, but don't sound so gleeful for another 10-12% drop. I'm down 32% from my high point in November 2021 (long story). I sure don't want to see 10-12% more on the downside. I'm down but not out and I sure as hell don't want to sell for a 6-digit loss.

Since I only have 20% deployed I would say I'm in the Anxiety phase. Not like we got blindsided by this so I will jump right over Denial, and I dont sell losses so Desperation/Panic and Surrender are not going to happen.
The length of this downturn will determine if I ever get depressed so basically I'm looking forward to hope.

Originally Posted by WorkFE

Since I only have 20% deployed I would say I'm in the Anxiety phase. Not like we got blindsided by this so I will jump right over Denial, and I dont sell losses so Desperation/Panic and Surrender are not going to happen.
The length of this downturn will determine if I ever get depressed so basically I'm looking forward to hope.

I think I'm in the same sentiment as you. I'll wait and see on my emotions. I'm more frustrated with myself than anything that I didn't hold out a bit longer.

As NASA said, don't get too excited to leave G and head to more risk on at this point. I didn't mean to come across as gleeful about the decline, again said more in angst and frustration, of course I do not want this thing to free fall from here. My tiny amount of loss is nothing compared to some here. I always root for you guys who are risk on, even when I'm on the sidelines. So let's have some hope we do see some green over the next coming days and weeks. One can hope. I will try to stay more positive.

Been out of town, still lurking lol, but I am leaving the door open for a possible move today. Talking out loud will follow shortly. I'm not going to rehash what our folks do in the premiums, you will have to read those yourself and if your not a member you should become one! Always good stuff in those premium contents. Always love what they bring to us each and every day!

But I will say I'm leaning to a move of some into G. I'm no expert on charting, posting those and explaining things like some of our more experienced folks here. They do a really good job and suggest you newer folks check out their threads.

My decision may not come until the last minute but will post what I do today, even if I do not do anything. We have that noon deadline so lot's can happen in the afternoons and it usually does. These markets do what they want regardless but we still need to make as much of an educated guess as to what we believe the markets may do and our goal is to preserve as much of our gains as possible. Even though I have plenty of time before retirement I do not want to always be all in. With the fact I've made a little bit here again this month I'm leaning to moving back to G with a move here before the end of the month. I'm not as optimistic as some or even as much as I'd like to be so it's a fine line to walk here.

Between RSI's, MACD's, BB's, 18 day, compressions, convergences, buy signals, sell signals, momentum, sentiment, and you can go on and on, all of it can get confusing. Some of the videos that are posted by users are really beneficial if you can piece them all together along with the premium services here. I have to admit all of this is why I'm doing a little better this year than last at this point in the year. I know we are halfway through but I feel better about my knowledge, maybe not always timing it right, but at least understanding my approach and what works for me. I put a lot of this together to come up my best educated guess as to when/where I should move my funds.

Still early but leaning to moving some into G. Lets see where we are about 11:30/11:40. My problem is I'm not wanting to miss out on an even bigger move up over the next day or two if this day ends up being exactly like yesterday. I do think we have another day or two to stretch this "rally" but after that who knows. July seasonality looks pretty good in the first part of the month so maybe holding is the best way to do this. Fed meets late in July this time so FOMC and other data may not come into play until that 3rd week, not sure. Still, we are in a bear market, downtrend, this is most likely just another rally within the bear market, I have seen some potential of maybe the lows are in, but you cannot ignore where we are in the grand scheme. Not sure we get more jumping in, FOMO, with the upside not being in the "all clear", still lots thinking we have not seen the lows. Then factor in all the economic news/data along with FOMC decisions and political fodder and you can get very mixed signals in my humble opinion.

So with all that said, decision for today to be continued....

So looks like perhaps a retest of the mid trade on Friday? If it falls through and keeps rolling maybe we get a larger selloff this afternoon/tomorrow. However I'm thinking it bounces off the mid point, don't have exact number, and then we close up, maybe not at the highs, think more of a flat day again. Didn't check volume but feels light. Think we traded to the 18 day so perhaps that was the move?

My guess is tomorrow we get that bigger up day if the mid holds and we bounce. I'm holding out with a move today based on the thought I feel we have another day or two left in this bear market rally. Perhaps we have some shuffling again today for that push higher. Maybe we could actually retest the 4140 area on the S&P? The mid point though from Friday I think needs to hold. If I'm wrong then I'll be a holder for that next leg back up....grrrr....

HYG is fading, VIX has bounced higher, not earth shattering though, markets def moving now down 1%. Not wanting to sell into this so I'm standing pat for now. Best of luck everyone!