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Thread: Flalaw97's Account Talk

  1. #13

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    So, I am thinking that as TSP particpants we have three things that make us significantly different than others who engage in market timing. I am trying to evaluate strategies in those parameters. 1. Only two IFTs per month (after that only moves to G) 2. IFT must be submitted before noon and 3. IFTs are free.

    With respect to number 2. I see most people wait until around 1130 or so to initiate their IFT. I assume that is to wait until the last minute to see where the market is headed. So I am trying to figure out if there are principals that will help indicate where the market will close based on what it did before 1130.

    With respect to number 3. There is no cost reason not to use all of your allotted IFTs, the drawback is once you have used your 2 IFTs, you can no longer increase your position in the market, only back out. But since it resets each month, is it best to develop a strategy to maximize returns/minimize risk on a monthly basis (rather than holding a position over a month). In theory, if you haven't used your second IFT in a given month and you think the market will drop on the last day of the month, you could sell all and buy your same position back in on the first day at the lower price right?

    Just things that are going through my head right now.

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    In theory, if you haven't used your second IFT in a given month and you think the market will drop on the last day of the month, you could sell all and buy your same position back in on the first day at the lower price right?
    Actually you can do this even if you have used all of your IFTs. It's if you think the market is going to go up that you would use your last IFT to buy in and then you could sell to return to your position the next month. However that would use one of your IFTs for the next month. I don't know - there is something in here, obviously tied to ability to predict a single day up or down, in advance...

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    So, I am thinking that as TSP particpants we have three things that make us significantly different than others who engage in market timing. I am trying to evaluate strategies in those parameters. 1. Only two IFTs per month (after that only moves to G) 2. IFT must be submitted before noon and 3. IFTs are free.

    With respect to number 2. I see most people wait until around 1130 or so to initiate their IFT. I assume that is to wait until the last minute to see where the market is headed. So I am trying to figure out if there are principals that will help indicate where the market will close based on what it did before 1130.

    With respect to number 3. There is no cost reason not to use all of your allotted IFTs, the drawback is once you have used your 2 IFTs, you can no longer increase your position in the market, only back out. But since it resets each month, is it best to develop a strategy to maximize returns/minimize risk on a monthly basis (rather than holding a position over a month). In theory, if you haven't used your second IFT in a given month and you think the market will drop on the last day of the month, you could sell all and buy your same position back in on the first day at the lower price right?

    Just things that are going through my head right now.
    Our IFT's are not free. There is a fee involved every time a transaction is made. We just don't see it. Back in the day we we could make an IFT daily. However, the board reduced it to 2 IFT's a month using the excuse that those of us that were doing IFT's daily was costing all of the TSP folks higher fees. So the many were paying for the few.
    May the force be with us.

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    You are speaking in the collective right? I know that the cost of our IFTs are built in, but there is no loss in my portfolio if I make an IFT correct? In other words, the "cost" of my IFTs are born by everyone who is invested in TSP - hence the restriction of 2 IFTs - those who were making multiple IFTs per month were costing others disproportionately. Doesn't change the fact that if I don't make any IFTs, I am being charged for the collective cost of all TSP IFTs.

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  9. #17

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    You are speaking in the collective right? I know that the cost of our IFTs are built in, but there is no loss in my portfolio if I make an IFT correct? In other words, the "cost" of my IFTs are born by everyone who is invested in TSP - hence the restriction of 2 IFTs - those who were making multiple IFTs per month were costing others disproportionately. Doesn't change the fact that if I don't make any IFTs, I am being charged for the collective cost of all TSP IFTs.
    It's a collective cost. You do not see it in your portfolio but it does affect the fund final cost. The added cost of the fees was an excuse to reduce our IFT's. There is more to it than that but I'm not going to go there.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    I am in 50% S and 50% C since July 1. I was thinking of pulling out next week assuming I am still up 2-3% but I am thinking that when/if they announce Stimulus Check #2, the market will go up again, and I want to be in. If that happens when the Senate convenes again July 20, then I can't get back in until Aug 1 and that may be too late. My strategy since April has been get in and see if I can pick up 2-3% and get out to minimize risk. If that keeps working, my returns will be good. This volatile market makes those big jumps happen more often and you can be in for only a few days and get that kind of return.


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  13. #19

    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    FlaLaw, JMHO By the time market moving news such as additional stimulus payments hits the news cycle it is already cooked into the pie. Too late for average joe investors like us to act on it. The big gun investors, hedge funds, etc. are way ahead of us. Every single time I have invested based on market moving news I have missed the target. Maybe its just me! LOL Best of luck to us all!

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    Excellent point. I went back and looked at March for first stimulus package and news started hitting around March 24 and 25 and market then stopped rally and dipped until several weeks later into April. So if there is likely to be round 2 the week of July 20, perhaps the market is already beginning to reflect that this week and my thoughts to get out next week are valid. Next question to figure out is do I retreat to the F fund or to G?

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  17. #21

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    After retreating to the F fund (turned out to be the better play than G) I am trying to decide when to get back in. Looking at charts posted by Bquat and see strong channels, seems it should be sooner, rather than later.

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    After retreating to the F fund (turned out to be the better play than G) I am trying to decide when to get back in. Looking at charts posted by Bquat and see strong channels, seems it should be sooner, rather than later.
    Since 1988 (31 years) the "F" fund has outperformed or equaled the "G" fund 19 years. You still have some volatility but not near as much as the other 3 major funds. In hindsight I wish I had been in the "F" fund instead of the "G" fund early in my TSP investments.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    Looking closely at potential exit points and if retreat to F or G this time is best. F dropped more than .75% since I moved out of it at beginning of month. Does that mean there is "room to bounce back" or that with no where for interest rates to go (down), the G is where you put your safe money for now?

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: Flalaw97's Account Talk

    I honestly don't know... the F-fund has a checkered past, at times it runs contrary to the market, other times with it. Often I would get burned with the F-fund taking a dive the same time the market did.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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