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Thread: ChemEng's Account talk...

  1. #1

    Default ChemEng's Account talk...

    I am new to tracking daily markets with my TSP, but have been lurking, reading, and researching for quite some time. (For what its worth, Im 26yo FERS GS-12 investing 15%.)

    Today I was 100% S fund and enjoyed a moderate return.

    Tomorrow I am shifting 100% C fund anticipating good returns from DuPont and BP. My MACD spreadsheet also shows C on the cusp of a Bullish moving average crossover. Hopefully that will show itself more tomorrow as well...

    One thing I am not certain about is the strategy behind IFT percentages. Can anyone explain their rational behind how they split their IFT percentages? I can understand IFTs that leave a percentage in the G to protect it, but I dont understand the strategies/decision rules behind C/S/I fund mixes. Anyone got any pointers or articles that could help me out?
    Last edited by ChemEng; 07-24-2006 at 08:03 PM.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    ChemEng,
    Welcome to the board the more the merrier. Your question is a good one. This is obvious, but some change their allocations via IFT from one fund to another because there are indicators that may give them a better chance to progress in another fund or funds. Some moves may be to avoid a possible loss by moving to a fund that may or is more likely to gain. Just how this is determined is another matter. Some have systems or claim to have systems that if followed should give them a better probability of gains or higher gains. Moving averages, long term or short term trends, candle sticks, a toss of a coin, going long term, going short, playing bounces, rebounds, whatever. They all have one thing in common, none of them can predict what the market is going to do day to day with any kind of regularity. Watch how the leaders (and the laggers) are doing on the Weekly Tracker, we can learn from them all. The best thing to do is the best you can do. Lots of knowledge out there and on this board, keep digging and when you hit pay dirt, PLEASE let me in on it. If I can help you in any way just let me know. OH No, NO see the below!!
    Norman



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  5. #3

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    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    Chem, I split allocation to spread the risk. When my level of confidence is high, you may see me go 100% to a certain fund. When I think the market will move forward, but I'm not sure which fund, I'll spread my allocation across C,S,I. I do look at the slope of the moving average in order to determine which fund is gaining the quickest and I may also allocate heavier based on that slope. Hope that helps, good luck with the investments.

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  7. #4

    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    FundSurfer -- What you are saying makes sense. Just for grins I calculated the correlations between the C, S, and I fund for the last 3 years. To my surprise, all 3 funds are almost perfectly correlated. (C&S~.99, S&I~.98, C&I~.97) This definately supports your strategy for spreading allocations if you "generally" expect a move...

    Still learning... Thinking I may need to evaluate shorter term correlations as another analysis tool to help hedge some of my IFTs.

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    Quote Originally Posted by ChemEng
    ...........
    Tomorrow I am shifting 100% C fund anticipating good returns from DuPont and BP. ..........
    Welcome ChemEng,
    FYI - BP makes up 2.18% of the I fund.
    * Source tsp.gov - I Fund sheet

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  11. #6

    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    Gilligan -- Thanks for the info... Still learning... I need to put a list of the large players by the funds they are in to help track the major players for the fund.

    I think that I will stick with 100% in C. MSN is reporting this morning positive returns for US Steel, AT&T, MCDs, and 3M. Pretty strong indicators I suppose of a decent response. Well know after the close...

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  13. #7

    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    Another dumb question...

    How are the fund prices calculated? Is it based on the magnitude of the change or the percentage?

    The reason that I ask is that the S&P had the greatest % gain today at 0.63%. However, when you look at the gains the funds made today, the C fund gained less than the S fund.

    Whats going on here? Is there a reference or guide to how this is calculated?

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    S Fund = Wilshire 4500 .98%
    C Fund = S&P 500 .63%
    I don't get it?
    Norman



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  17. #9

    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    Hrrmmm... I guess I misclicked or misread somewhere... It happens... Not to mention I was a wee bit distracted last night when I was selected for a promotion to a GS13.

    At any rate... I figured out how the values are calculated:
    NewPrice=ClosePrice*(1+%gain)

    At least that equation worked for the C and S funds gain yesterday.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    One more question IFTs... Bear with me please as I know Ive been asking alot...

    Monday night I put an IFT to change from 100%S to 100%C. Since that was before 1200 Tuesday, it would be effective COB Tuesday. I recieved an email that said this:

    Transfer of 100% S fund@$16.63 to 100% C fund@$13.91 has been completed.

    This kind of suprised me because I was expecting to trade out of the S fund at $13.83 instead of $13.91. (Im not really complaining in this case, because of the higher returns.)

    This adds a whole new layer of difficulty to the trading issue. I had the mentality that I was trying to trade into the fund that was going to increase that day. But given this information, it appears that I should be trading into the fund that is going to increase tomorrow.

    Is this correct?

    Additionally, the tspworksheet does not account for this "gain/loss" for this lag. It seems that the percent gain should be calculated on the ending price of the fund you are leaving, not the gaining price of the fund you are moving into.

    Given this transaction listed above, the tspworksheet says I have a 2.83% gain since 21JUL05. (Thats when I started using the worksheet.) The first 2.23% was gained in the S fund on 24JUL06. But it is saying that I gained 0.58% because of the IFT into C fund that was effective yesterday. The problem is I sold my S fund at the price it was on 25JUL06 and have not created any C fund gains at all because I bought it at the 25JUL06 price.

    That doesnt make sense to me.

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    That simple formula is correct for arriving at the New Fund price, from prior fund price and the days gain/loss. If its a loss: NewPrice = PriorClosePrice*(1+(-Gain%)).

    Here is Yahoo link for C, S, I and F intraday performance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=s&s=%5E...%2C+efa%2C+agg

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: ChemEng's Account talk...

    Quote Originally Posted by ChemEng
    Monday night I put an IFT to change from 100%S to 100%C. Since that was before 1200 Tuesday, it would be effective COB Tuesday. I recieved an email that said this:

    Transfer of 100% S fund@$16.63 to 100% C fund@$13.91 has been completed.

    This kind of suprised me because I was expecting to trade out of the S fund at $13.83 instead of $13.91. (Im not really complaining in this case, because of the higher returns.)
    The prices you listed were COB Tuesday prices. Did you think you'd get Monday prices?

    Quote Originally Posted by ChemEng
    This adds a whole new layer of difficulty to the trading issue. I had the mentality that I was trying to trade into the fund that was going to increase that day. But given this information, it appears that I should be trading into the fund that is going to increase tomorrow.

    Is this correct?
    I guess it depends on when you trade. I usually trade in the hour before the deadline. I usually want to trade out of a fund I think will go down tommorrow into a fund that will go up tommorrow. You put your IFT into the system after noon so your trade is not effective till COB the next day. If you put in your IFT request before noon, your trade is effective at the COB of that day.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChemEng
    Additionally, the tspworksheet does not account for this "gain/loss" for this lag. It seems that the percent gain should be calculated on the ending price of the fund you are leaving, not the gaining price of the fund you are moving into.

    Given this transaction listed above, the tspworksheet says I have a 2.83% gain since 21JUL05. (Thats when I started using the worksheet.) The first 2.23% was gained in the S fund on 24JUL06. But it is saying that I gained 0.58% because of the IFT into C fund that was effective yesterday. The problem is I sold my S fund at the price it was on 25JUL06 and have not created any C fund gains at all because I bought it at the 25JUL06 price.

    That doesnt make sense to me.
    I would guess that you are not entering the dates and percentages on the correct lines. A bunch of people make that mistake. I'd have to see the spreadsheet to be sure. The spreadsheet calculations are correct if the data entered is correct. I argued with Tom for a week before I figured out that he and I thought about the entry of data in different ways.

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