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Thread: TopNotch Account Talk

  1. #85

    Join Date
    Jun 2018
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    Military so all over
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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Hoping this little pull back last longer than a week unlike the last one. I am out of moves for FEB.. 0.0 We will see if it plays out. I was annoyed to have to leave a little in the C and S but would like to migrate risk but don't want to miss out on gain. I also want to stay ahead of the markets. I don't expect more than a 2% to 3% pull back. We will see!




    Currently 10% C and 20% S 70% F
    IFT's left for February 0
    Yearly return 5.14% (auto) 5.82% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  3. #86

    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by TopNotch View Post
    I am out of moves for FEB..

    Currently 10% C and 20% S 70% F
    IFT's left for February 0
    Yearly return 5.14% (auto) 5.82% (my tracker)
    -Top
    Not sure if you knew, but you can still move money to the G-fund despite using your two IFTs already. Anything that only increases the G-fund would be legit.

    Examples:

    IFT to:

    100% G fund - legit

    30% G, 70% F - legit

    50% G, 10%C, 10% S, 30% F - legit

    As long as only the G-fund is increasing. All the other are decreasing.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #87

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Indeed. Tracking that. About G fund moves and HOLY smokes. Probably good I was out of moves or I would or tried to get back into stock funds quicker. On the tech side of things still no entry points. I don't care though. I will take what I can get at this point and stocks are at a great buying point. I missed the buying point beginning of feb which stocks moved close to 4% in two days.... And now over 13% in 6 days. There is some nasty economic data coming out on Monday might wait for that to pass. I also want to start buying back in slowly once the 2 hour or the 4 hour chart PPO crosses the moving avg. Weekly video WILL follow for this week. If I get back in soon and markets stay where they are or lower it will be one of the best swing moves of my TSP career.... granted of course markets go back up again. Haha.
    TopNotch

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  7. #88

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Well. What a week. I was expecting a 2% to 4% pullback... not this... It has been a roller coaster this past week. Have you been on the ride? Or watching it on the side? I have been watching/on the side in the F and G since the 18th-21st. I didn't take much of a hit, some luck there for sure some technical help too. Next month is a new month with new moves! I plan on getting back in soon! Up 5% for the year. Beating all funds currently. Had to use the rare third move this month to get some of the funds to G. We will see what the weekend news brings before getting back in. I have a pattern of getting out at a decent time but never getting back in at a good time. Enjoy the video.



    Currently 70% F 30% G
    IFT's left for March 2
    Yearly return 4.11% (auto-tracker) 5.76% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

  8.  
  9. #89

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    What a week. Bottom line up front TopNotch expects a bottom some time from next week to mid-April with price/stock increasing after the virus news starts to slow down. The bottom can be anywhere from another 3% to 5% where we closed on Friday and I expect a retest of the lows based off past data. Long term charts look really good so far and long term gains for sure to come. TopNotch feels really good with the prices we bought in at this last week. Check out the video for more!



    Currently 50% C 50% S
    IFT's left for March 1
    Yearly return 2.60% (auto-tracker) 4.16% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  11. #90

    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Well done. I assume you know when you make an IFT on 3/3 (before noon ET) you don't get into the funds until the 4th (COB 3rd)? I could be wrong, but your video seems to suggest you bought the lows on the 3rd. If your AutoTracker IFT was accurate, you actually bought the close on the 3rd. Just an FYI and could be why our tracker has a different return than yours.

    https://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_...?user=TopNotch
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #91

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    You are correct Tom. Yes COB on the 3rd. I will try and be more clear about that in my video's good point.

    No one can ever know a bottom or a top and I tend to call them right to get out but fail to get back at the right time. Thank goodness I was out of moves in Feb or I would of gotten in too soon. I like to get about 2% on markets for a swing and this time got way more. Very happy with the move and will be holding for some time as we take the up's and downs in the stock market storm. The discount we got even though it wasn't the bottom was pretty good. Love your commentary btw. You are one of my favs for markets and I enjoy seeing the way you think. Maybe someday when I make a bit more I might become a TSPplus subscriber! Pictures and charts below to show my moves.

    TSP swing move.jpg

    topnotch tsp talk.jpg

    ITF1.JPG

    ITF2.JPG

    IFT3.JPG

    Even though it wasn't the bottom still very happy where I sit today and am ahead of our stock funds. I think my tracker is a little off due to missing the cut off times by a day (thanks for adding the extra ten mins that is very helpful for a trader that makes moves close to the noon bell! ), and due to new contributions that come in on the 1st of the month since I can't add those to the auto tracker if they go into a different fund based off my allocation on the auto tracker. Example being 100% C on the auto. New month and new funds go into 100% F I can't move the auto tracker to reflect that without burning up a move so I can't change it till I make my first move for the month. Meaning the funds and my gains for the year will be off. You can see that above in the screen shots as I can't reflect the 3% of the new money coming in until I make my first move for the month. As I get more and more in TSP it will affect this less and less. Also another reason I include both my tracker and the TSP auto tracker in my posts. I am also always open to taking screen shots of my TSP account and my tracker showing I am honest 100% of the time.

    Currently 50% S 50% C
    IFT's left for march 1
    Yearly return -2.07% (auto-tracker) -0.58% (my tracker)
    -Top
    Last edited by TopNotch; 03-11-2020 at 03:41 AM.
    TopNotch

  14.  
  15. #92

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Well. That was an interesting week. I was playing for a correction and got a bear instead. How do I focus on how to do things for the future? Time to to get out the bear handbook. Been a while! Down about 9% for the year and still beating most the TSP funds. With snapback rallies, I think we got some great opportunities! Though buying back in a little early we still own way more shares than we did in feb and that is a WIN! Crazy how I always jump in too late and the one time I jump too early I get about an -8% lost in a month! Still happy to own more shares and heck I am 28 just on mile two of this race lots of time to make it up. Looking to probably buy and hold for awhile so I don't end up on the wrong side of volatile markets with only two moves a month. I am thinking of increasing new TSP funds coming in during this down time. Any thoughts out there from bear veterans? This is my first bear market.





    Currently 50% S 50% C
    IFT's left for march 1
    Yearly return -9.84% (auto-tracker) -8.47% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  17. #93

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Been a crazy month. The rebound this week is what TopNotch was waiting for. If you missed this week. You likely missed one of the best weeks in years. I have never seen a week that big in my investing lifetime with TSP. With this rebound for those of us in stock funds, the questions is where to turn next. I don't think we will see the V bottom we did in 2019. I think it is very important to play the short term tech charts during this time. I don't think a retest of the lows is out of the question. With the virus low in. What will the economic low be when the data starts to come in? Will that prove to be the retest? Only time will tell but I am very much more in bearish mode than I was a month ago. It is important to stay ahead of markets and not be on the wrong side of these massive counter rally. By careful decisions I hope to be successful. Only down 5% for the year and feel pretty good to being green by the end of this year. Long ways to go and time to roll up them sleeves and get to work. Enjoy the video!



    Currently 50% S 50% C
    IFT's left for April 2
    Yearly return -7.14% (auto-tracker) -5.61% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  19. #94

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    I guess I spoke too soon. What are markets doing! This as never happened in my investor lifetime. Another huge week for the TSP funds. With this week it brought TOPNOTCH to beating all TSP funds except one. I am lagging the F fund by about 1% and we are up and in the green for the year. What a ride. How long should we stay on this thing before it decides to go back down. When do we start to take profits? What are your thoughts? Enjoy the video.



    Currently 50% S 50% C
    IFT's left for June 2
    Yearly return 1.74%% (auto-tracker) 3.45% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  21. #95

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Quick post before the new week. Only one question burning in everyone's mind V or W recovery?



    Currently 25% S 25% C 50% G
    IFT's left for June 1
    Yearly return: -3.83% (auto) N/A (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

  22.  
  23. #96

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    Arrow Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by TopNotch View Post
    Quick post before the new week. Only one question burning in everyone's mind V or W recovery?
    The charts no longer resemble a V. Therefore, W. An elongated W.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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