Thread: Ed the Fed's Account Talk

The I fund has now pulled back about 25% from its most recent leg up. My high end target for the pullback was 20.54 and that was hit yesterday. I am not yet ready to jump back in. The pullback could continue as evidenced by how rapidly it fell to 20.54. I am staying out of the C, S and I until I see evidence of an end to the current pullback. I don't think it will fall this far but a pullback in the I to 19.3 is not out of the question at this point. I will be watching closely as I protect my hard earned gains over the last year. I am currently G 75% and F 25%. I am contemplating what to do about the F portion this weekend. I will either keep what I have or move it all to G on Monday.

Yep, I was in 20% "F" until yesterday afternoon. Good-bye "F" fund, I don't trust you, or like you at all. Robber!!!!

Markets were looking good the first two hours this morning but now its all RED. I will delay a move into the I until this all clears up as it looks like the I will lose a chunk of change today. The S is down also but only about 0.20%. The I looks like it could lose as much as 0.5% or more today. I am currently in the S and will ride this out for another day.

In my 5-13 post I stated that the I could pull back to 19.3. I didn't say it would, but I did say it was a possibility. I should have listened to the warning bells in my own head. I jumped back into the S today and lost a good chunk of change for it. Now I have transferred into the I (80) and S (20) effective for tomorrows trading. I hope we have hit the bottom of the I pit. I should have stayed in the G until I saw an upward confirmation instead of guessing that we had hit a bottom. No one to blame but myself! Sometimes I feel like the TSP is monopoly money. Maybe that makes it less painful for me when I take large losses like today.

The I has now fallen to 19.1 but today looks to be up. Hope this is a major support level and not an iterim one. I has support range at 18.93-18.99. If that doesn't hold, next one looks to be in the 18.22-18.29 level. That would be painful!

On the S, 16.94 could hold as their is some support in the 16.95-16.96 area. Next level of support looks to be around 16.79. If that doesn't hold, look out below.

I just moved all my money into the G. We are overbought on all market indices and are due for a pullback. It may not be a massive one but we are certainly due for one. RSI's on SP500, EFA and Dow Willshire 4500 completion index are all near that critical 70 level. I will most likely sit in G until this pullback occurs and runs its course.

I am really on the fence but have elected to move to the G. The EFA bounced back and recovered over half of its early morning losses but has now turned down again. Looking back at past big drops in the EFA of over a point have generally followed with two or three additional down days. I think the market has been long overdue for a correction and this may be it.

Originally Posted by Ed the Fed

I am really on the fence but have elected to move to the G. ... I think the market has been long overdue for a correction and this may be it.

Whew! Last time you said something like this was in May of last year. You were spot on:

Originally Posted by Ed the Fed

I elected to move funds via IFT to the G (75%) and F (25%) COB today. I think the market is overbought and should have a pullback.

I continue to keep all of my hard earned $ in the G fund. I don't like the high volatility in the market right now. Up 100 points one day, down 100 another. Hopefully, the market shakes out in the next few days. I am watching for a buying opportunity in the I fund, possibly tomorrow or Thursday but view this as a short term buy. Not sure about long term.

I am not real sure what to make of the markets these days. I keep waiting for a long overdue correction that never comes. Meanwhile, I see my opportunity to make money going up in smoke while I sit in G. Effective COB 5/25/07 I am jumping back in 50S, 30I, 20C. I am looking for a quick 2% gain in the S Fund in the next week or two. I will have my finger on the button to get out if the market should turn ugly.

Wow, S Fund rocked today. Mr S Fund, my retirement account thanks you! However, keep your finger on the bailout button. A major correction is long overdue. I will monitor the first couple of hours in the morning and make a tough decision about stepping back over to the G or staying in the high risk stakes game.