Thread: Ed the Fed's Account Talk

Hi, Ed the Fed guy.
Where do you watch the changes in the TSP funds?
2moryrs.

After a pretty nice run up this week, I have to believe profit taking is coming. I am moving over to 50G 50F COB 6/1/07. We may even see the profit taking later today, but hopefully not until Monday where I am safe and sound and have protected my recent earnings! I am watching the I fund rather closely as the EFA has been range bound for a few weeks. An upside breakout could be worthy of a nice profit in our accounts. I will probably move to 100I sometime early next week.

EFA broke out of it's past month trading range, but it's lacking conviction today due to low volume. We'll see how it finishes this week.

While it is not possible to time the market or predict what it will do, I think you can make some logical decisions based on what it is doing. The EFA (my I fund tracker that I use) has pulled back 1.86% from its recent high to this mornings low. The DWCP (my S fund tracker) has pulled back 1.69% from its recent high to this mornings low. At this juncture, I think the market is going to do one of two things. One is that this is just another minor pullback and we will continue to see nice sweet gains in our funds. The other is that this is finally the beginning of the long overdue major market correction which we all dread. Since I have felt the correction was coming back in January, I still believe we have a major downleg ahead of us. That being said, I think we should see a bounceback on Thursday or Friday and so I have jumped back into the S 70% and the I 30%. If the major correction is in fact coming, I would expect another drop following the bounceback. If it is still an upward market, I will simply ride the S and I for another 2-3% ride. I think Friday and Monday will be important to watch what the market does.

Ouch, major market pain today. Wish I had stayed out one more day but oh well. I would like to believe we can expect some sort of bounceback on Friday and am staying in for now. If Friday is down big early, I will have to ponder my next move. I need to set aside some time this weekend to ponder the charts.

First off, you have to love RDO's. I am sitting at home and was able to do some chart analysis this morning. The current pullback in I and S looks very similar to the pullback in late February/early March. While nothing in the markets is guarenteed, I am very concerned about a third wave down (for those of you who follow Elliott wave analysis). If the third wave plays out, I would expect another drop in both the I and S (taking C with it) on either Monday or Tuesday and continuing until the RSI hits 30 or less. Back in March, this was three down days in a row after the minor one day correction up. Today could be that one day up so that is why I am so concerned and want to protect my hard earned investments. Since the drop could be substantial, I am not willing to risk a wait and see on whether Monday is an up day. I am looking for the RSI to reach 30 before I jump back into stocks. If Monday is a huge up day and sends the RSI above 50, I will reconsider my charts as that would most likley negate the third wave down and possibly signal another upward spike. We of course all want that spike but the market has been up for so long that is long overdue for a pullback. RSI as of right now is 42's on the I and 46's on the S.

I will be holding in the G day for at least one more day. Need to see where the I, S and C decide to go this afternoon. RSI's are holding in the upper 40s for all three (46.73, 48.74, and 49.55 as of 11:24am). I think we may either retest the lows from Thursday with a nice bounce off and another bull leg up or we may see a further breakdown below Thursday's lows. I think we may still see a drop down to RSI's in the low 30s before this pullback is done. I am taking the conservative play on this one.

I have decided to hide in the safety of G for a few more days. I don't like the looks of todays charts. We will see how the market reacts tomorrow. RSI's are still in the 40's for all three funds. For a true shakeout, I would like to see them hit 30 and then bounce back up.

I was out of town last week on business travel. Looks like I picked a good time to be away as I am hiding in the G. This week still bothers me. Could this be the beginning of a major correction? I will stay safe in the G until I feel comfortable engaging again.

We are wondering the same thing, only some of us are in. Luck you and glad your back.

Finally, we saw a breakout above 1540 on the S&P500 that held. This is a bullish signal so I am moving back into the market 40C 30S and 30I. I am looking for at least 2% gain on the C. Hopefully even more in the other funds.