Thread: Griffin Account Talk

As I was painfully beginning to realize that the Santa Clause rally wasn’t coming at Christmas, my daughter was watching the Grinch for the first time. Halfway through, she asked if the Grinch really stole Christmas. In order to avoid traumatizing my child, I informed her that it was not real (while simultaneous admitting to myself that the rally had indeed been stolen). At the end of the show she asked me if the Grinch would steal Easter. I got a good laugh out of it (from the mouth of babes), but I think the last laugh may be on me.

I say this because, I am now thoroughly convinced that we are headed to the bottom of the channel we have been running in for the last two years and will be there within a week or two – which coincidently takes us somewhere just south of Christmas prices (and Tom gets his blessed pullback). So there’s my buy in point, after a retest of the channel lows and established support - Christmas week prices: C-Fund around 13.60, S-Fund around 16.30.

However, what is really bothering me is that such a blatant reiteration of this pattern for the third time makes a fourth iteration unlikely, simply because the cycle has been progressively tightening with each iteration like a rising wedge. If the market drops from here this would keep us from going into territory not quite charted in early 2000 – which fits the mood. But the other side is that a recession following an inverted yield curve usually takes a couple of quarters to kick in, and I still firmly believe the election mudslinging will be the harbinger of the four year curse. Also, I should not forget to mention the Iran thing is still hanging out there like a time bomb (literally?). I don’t see these factors yielding a recession for at least another 5 to 6 months – just enough time for one more cycle in this channel.

I’ve thrown in the towel for March, but it will be the FOMC meeting on the 23rd, that will make or break April. The Grinch (aka Bernake) may indeed steal Easter, and send us into a full market reversal if the fed does not make a move toward fiscal sustainability (This goes beyond Bernake – the circus down in DC needs to turn down the music – and listen to themselves for a few minutes).

Griffin,

This trading range (2 years base over base) will more than likely turn out to be just that, a basing pattern setting the foundation for the next price advance. I'll take another 3000 points in the Dow please.

Dennis

Birch,

I really don’t think your going to get your 3K onto the DOW anytime soon. Besides, why pay tomorrow’s prices to invest today? My belief is keep it steady with just enough bumps to make it entertaining and profitable for the wise investor.

My belief is that we have a big set back coming sometime this year. Anybody can get on the calendar, look at the market reports and say all’s well on the USS Bush. But those numbers don’t tell the story anymore then the bottom line of a corporation is a measure of it’s health.

First a correction, the FOMC meeting is the 27/28th.

The buying opportunity created by the livedoor incident and the subsequent upgrades to the Nikkei's trading system are giving it a boost, along with a handful of miscellaneous news. This is throwing it off kilter with the rest of the world's markets, but that will equalize within the next couple of days. The next rally off the S&P 1270 line will likely be short, too short for us. You might get one or two days at best to play the top. The Nikkei equalizing with the rest of world and the end of this next rally will likely come together and the result could be a very intense sell off - taking us to around the S&P 1250 line with downward momentum.

Still playing it safe in the G.

I'm real skeptical about this rally, but I have decided to grab a piece of it. My thoughts are that the Japanesse market may make a break above the trend and give the global market a boost. I am going with US stocks because of the delay (and I am through with trying to play the I-Fund on the short term). I will be watching to see if the Nikkei 300 can hit 332+. I expect to back out again by Wednesday or Thursday unless a breakout occurs.

The Japanesse miracle has been able to sustain it's growth producing some impressive gains, but it does not seem to have the strength it needs to carry the Nikkei 300 to the 332+ level. It's struggle to get there has held this rally longer then I thought would have been possible. However, while it's lonely at the top, misery likes company, to quote the animals:

Well, there is a house in New Orleans
They call the Rising Sun
And it's been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God I know I'm one

I'm still shy of the I-fund (the delay of being able to react to the Japanesse market makes me uncomfortable) so I'm still playing it safe in the G.

Been languishing in the F-fund this past week while I was on vacation. Missed a hell of an opportunity and am slipping in the tsp talk standings. My goal is always to meet or beat the best performing fund each year. I was making headway two weeks ago but I am behind the power curve now. Time to get aggresssive again.

As much as the I-fund annoys me, I may have to pony up, to meet my goal. I would still like to see a solid pullback just for sanity's sake, but if the market is going to run amuck then I guess I am going to have to throw caution to the wind and roll with it - I expect to get back into stocks soon

Over the past week, I made a solid play into stocks but I jumped the gun a day early. I have a tendancy to move early or I would probably have a 10+% YTD instead of an 8.5+%. Tempering the emotional response associated with the anxiety of the delay is tough for me, however, I have only been at this market timing business about a year but I think I'm getting the hang of it, thanks to a few good books and a lot insight from the folks at this sight.

Anyway, lately I have been hanging around the I and the F - I seem to have a love/hate relationship with them. I am hoping to make some small gains in the F over the next two days before stocks hit the bottom of the channel and start our next cycle up.

I no longer think we are going to get a solid pullback anytime soon - although I will approach May very cautiously. I believe we are going to run this channel until we get a full reversal. It seems to me that the previous two year pattern has changed and we have a new behavior emerging - somewhere between obessive/compulsive and psychotic/skittish - oh well, when in Rome......

Originally Posted by Griffin

oh well, when in Rome......

You know they're touring again...............

http://www.myspace.com/wheninrome

M_M

that is too funny!

I didn't like those jokers when I was in college and I am not about to start now. Only goes to show that we will always be haunted by our past.....kind of like today's economics....

I still have my skinny leather ties.....................