Thread: FelixtheCat Account Talk

Originally Posted by jason011235813

Me too. 25f,25c,20c,30i

Carpe Diem


The stock market finished strong and while we may consolidate some on Friday, the momentum is clearly upwards now. Look to test the old highs sooner than later, but first a brief pause. I see some different possibilities for tomorrow:

1. We shoot out decisively from the get go...but then settle back down with 1/2-3/4 percent gain.
2. We go negative early and then slowly grind up with a little or small gain...basically flat to 1/4 percent gain.
3. We sell or cannot recover... 3/4-1.5 percent loss.

I pick #2 based on past perceived performance after sizable gains. If there is any surprise news not baked into the cake...#3 is possible. Choice #1 unlikely.

We will be looking for follow through conviction.

Looks like the I Fund will need to wait till next week to hopefully break out in convincing fashion. The dollar is surging after the jobs report and is putting a crimp on today's I Fund action. A short term correction on the US Dollar is expected in the near term...if that begins on Monday with some giveback in the US Dollar...then we might see the I fund gain some steam next week. No move for me today. I hate pulling out on I Fund loss days. Let's see if we can match the C&S Fund breakouts soon.

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Looks like the I Fund will need to wait till next week to hopefully break out in convincing fashion. The dollar is surging after the jobs report and is putting a crimp on today's I Fund action. A short term correction on the US Dollar is expected in the near term...if that begins on Monday with some giveback in the US Dollar...then we might see the I fund gain some steam next week. No move for me today. I hate pulling out on I Fund loss days. Let's see if we can match the C&S Fund breakouts soon.

No move for me today. I will play the contrarian Tuesday up move since the tsptalk seasonality chart shows a negative bias day. It feels like we will have a good day tomorrow to keep us in the area of the breakout. Maybe we might get a couple of good days this week. I'm still looking for an up day to get out this week.

F Fund still under pressure from strong dollar. Dollar will probably remain in a perched position this week. G Fund well...you know...no negative returns. C/S looks like they also will have some upward moves to try and recover tomorrow and test the highs. Hang in there.

Well, looks like the contrarian move to stay in I Fund is working so far. Even with an up market, the strongest funds today are the I Fund and C Fund. The S Fund is lagging and seems to be hesitant about joining this rally. That is a little concerning since it has been in a down slope since Feb 06. Nevertheless, all funds are up. I'm bothered by the strong dollar which is taking away from the I fund return potential. I have been in long enough in the I fund to see that you must look at both the EFA ( iShares MSCI EAFE ETF - EFA - Stock Quotes ) and the US Dollar Index ( DXY Index Quote - U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Index Price Today (DXY:NYE) - MarketWatch ) to get a sense of the return of the day ). If I just used these two for today...looks like the I Fund would return about .40%...give or take some fair valuation exchange. Sometimes, I don't see the fair valuation taken off or added until the following day so there is definitely a mystery to the I Fund return. In any case, the C Fund is returning the most, then the I fund, then I think the S Fund.

I'm still waiting on the dang strong dollar to weaken. I fund still good enough to stick with...and will save the one move to get back into the F fund after correction is complete. Looks like two good days of upside possible. Ride it.

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Well, looks like the contrarian move to stay in I Fund is working so far. Even with an up market, the strongest funds today are the I Fund and C Fund. The S Fund is lagging and seems to be hesitant about joining this rally. That is a little concerning since it has been in a down slope since Feb 06. Nevertheless, all funds are up. I'm bothered by the strong dollar which is taking away from the I fund return potential. I have been in long enough in the I fund to see that you must look at both the EFA ( iShares MSCI EAFE ETF - EFA - Stock Quotes ) and the US Dollar Index ( DXY Index Quote - U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Index Price Today (DXY:NYE) - MarketWatch ) to get a sense of the return of the day ). If I just used these two for today...looks like the I Fund would return about .40%...give or take some fair valuation exchange. Sometimes, I don't see the fair valuation taken off or added until the following day so there is definitely a mystery to the I Fund return. In any case, the C Fund is returning the most, then the I fund, then I think the S Fund.

I'm still waiting on the dang strong dollar to weaken. I fund still good enough to stick with...and will save the one move to get back into the F fund after correction is complete. Looks like two good days of upside possible. Ride it.

Here is a classic example how the I Fund looks good...but then poof...little return for the day. Better be some fair valuation added for a big day on Wednesday or as Ricky Ricardo would say, “All right, start ‘splainin.’”.

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Here is a classic example how the I Fund looks good...but then poof...little return for the day. Better be some fair valuation added for a big day on Wednesday or as Ricky Ricardo would say, “All right, start ‘splainin.’”.

Bailing on I Fund. Dollar too strong which indicates the economy is primary focus of traders and they think our economy is on the upswing. Job numbers helped to brighten picture including increased wage growth as well.

As for the other funds C/S....they sure feel top heavy here. I belive we need a larger correction to go forward...however...climbing the steep wall of worry has been done in the past...so would not be surprised to see some crumbs still left...any big rally will be sold off.

f Fund still under some pressure...but I'm ready to go F Fund for the remainder of the month. Lick my wounds and wait until March.

100 percent F Fund move today.

Interesting. I've been following you some and just found your Account Talk. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

This is an ALERT! Protection mode has now kicked in. Here are the problems going forward...Strong Dollar, Collapse in Oil, Mortgage bubble collapse, Greece and the eventual leading up to the Greatest Credit Bubble Collapse like we have never seen. While this may not happen overnight...a big drop is coming n the short term to trap as many of the market herd as possible. In simple terms, You've been living in a dream world, Neo. This is the world as it exists today....stock market carnage and a depression coming. Sounds like crazy talk. Yes, for now. You know that...if I'm wrong...we will have a huge amount of millionaires running around and the cost of living will be crazy high. That will not happen...so the market will inevitably take back the gains. I wish I could say it would be gradual...but no..it will happen fast and hit as many as possible. Good luck to you all!

Originally Posted by felixthecat

This is an ALERT! Protection mode has now kicked in. Here are the problems going forward...Strong Dollar, Collapse in Oil, Mortgage bubble collapse, Greece and the eventual leading up to the Greatest Credit Bubble Collapse like we have never seen. While this may not happen overnight...a big drop is coming n the short term to trap as many of the market herd as possible. In simple terms, You've been living in a dream world, Neo. This is the world as it exists today....stock market carnage and a depression coming. Sounds like crazy talk. Yes, for now. You know that...if I'm wrong...we will have a huge amount of millionaires running around and the cost of living will be crazy high. That will not happen...so the market will inevitably take back the gains. I wish I could say it would be gradual...but no..it will happen fast and hit as many as possible. Good luck to you all!

Wow! You seem to be in a dark place right now. May I recommend an Epsom salt bath? Works wonders while waiting for the END to arrive. (Colorado, DC, and Washington State residence may choose alternative mood altering 'baths'). A change of 1.7% is not the END of the bull market as we know it. I'll worry when we have a >10% correction. It's all good man, chill.

Originally Posted by malyla

Wow! You seem to be in a dark place right now. May I recommend an Epsom salt bath? Works wonders while waiting for the END to arrive. (Colorado, DC, and Washington State residence may choose alternative mood altering 'baths'). A change of 1.7% is not the END of the bull market as we know it. I'll worry when we have a >10% correction. It's all good man, chill.

I like to send out my warnings early.

The total Solar Eclipse isn't until the 20th right?