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Thread: ravensfan's Account Talk

  1. #661

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Ok Tsunami, I'm going to give this lunar thing a shot. I submitted my first IFT for September going 40% C Fund. By doing so, I am invested going into October. If things go south, I will still be able to exit and then get back in later in the month and if old Mr. Moon is correct, I can always throw a little more into the game.

    Thanks and good luck with your investments!!!
    Oh my, well good luck. I hate to see people making any moves based on my posts here...I need to post a disclaimer, just look at my track record LOL. 40% sounds safe though, then you could average in if there's a further dip, or if there's more of a rally to help confirm the bottom is in.

    One of the nuances I read about that lunar system (and I think I'll probably go ahead and buy it for the $150 or whatever it costs and then read his book he provides with it) is that in panicky times like we've had, "the" bottom can often occur right during the middle of a "green" period. For the green period that starts tomorrow, the potential panic sell-off period is late next week, 10/7 to early 10/9 I think...which fits with that average October low chart I just posted on my page where the low is around the 7th trading day of October, which would be next Friday 10/9.

    Who knows, I certainly don't, but I like the long term returns of that "hybrid" seasonal strategy I'm working on that only includes using the lunar dates four times per year. It's still a work in progress, and one of the rules I still need to develop is how to break from that strategy during bear markets. Like IT posted below, pretty much nothing works in a bear market. The lunar system tends to help since you're out of the market half of the time, but I'd rather just be in G for most of a bear market and only attempt to find the biggest rallies to grab some quick gains.

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  3. #662

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Oh my, well good luck. I hate to see people making any moves based on my posts here...I need to post a disclaimer, just look at my track record LOL. 40% sounds safe though, then you could average in if there's a further dip, or if there's more of a rally to help confirm the bottom is in.

    One of the nuances I read about that lunar system (and I think I'll probably go ahead and buy it for the $150 or whatever it costs and then read his book he provides with it) is that in panicky times like we've had, "the" bottom can often occur right during the middle of a "green" period. For the green period that starts tomorrow, the potential panic sell-off period is late next week, 10/7 to early 10/9 I think...which fits with that average October low chart I just posted on my page where the low is around the 7th trading day of October, which would be next Friday 10/9.

    Who knows, I certainly don't, but I like the long term returns of that "hybrid" seasonal strategy I'm working on that only includes using the lunar dates four times per year. It's still a work in progress, and one of the rules I still need to develop is how to break from that strategy during bear markets. Like IT posted below, pretty much nothing works in a bear market. The lunar system tends to help since you're out of the market half of the time, but I'd rather just be in G for most of a bear market and only attempt to find the biggest rallies to grab some quick gains.
    Agree with what you are saying and that Oct 9th trading day looms large. As for me trying this out, hey it's only a 40% gamble at this point.

    I did back test the lunar cycle for all of 2015 and found that if I followed the system getting in on the full moon cycles and getting out on the new moon cycles, investing only in the C and G funds I would be up over 3% year to date. If I applied the same system to the S and G funds, I would be up over 5%. Considering my performance in 2014 and 2015, I would be happy with either of those.

    I think you are on to something and hope you get it figured out and are willing to share. As for the Elliott Wave stuff, I will need to educate myself on it as I am still not sure what wave we are currently in. Besides if I_T said he has used it occasionally in his system, that's a great endorsement. I was with him for a year and could never figure out what made him move on the dates he moved. Perhaps he as just given us a little peek into his crystal ball.

    Well good luck. I'll be keeping tabs on your account talk and if I run into anything that helps, I'll be sure to share.


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  5. #663

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 30 Sep 15.

    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 0.52% -0.93% -4.00% -3.62%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.72% 0.87% -7.01% -10.63% -8.55%


    Good luck in your investments and have a great evening !!!


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  7. #664

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Go Ravens! Woo-hoo! Way to go! And kudos to your Man Tucker. He deserves a raise.
    Last edited by jpcavin; 10-02-2015 at 08:58 AM. Reason: typo

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  9. #665

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Ahoy! US Jobs report just sunk the good ship Euro-Union

    at least that's what the noos is saying.
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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  11. #666

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jpcavin View Post
    Go Ravens! Woo-hoo! Way to go! And kudos to your Man Tucker. He deserves a raise.
    Yep, it was a nail biter for sure, but we pulled it out in O/T...Glad for burro as well. He had Ravens this week in the revival pool...



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  13. #667

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Looks like the man on the moon is having his way again. When 'o when will I ever learn to follow my own system LOL. I'm glad someone had the nerve to go for it though. Things are looking up until 10/14 or so.

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  15. #668

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Looks like the man on the moon is having his way again. When 'o when will I ever learn to follow my own system LOL. I'm glad someone had the nerve to go for it though. Things are looking up until 10/14 or so.
    Don't feel to bad. I was only willing to invest 40%. Your system has a great track record and is making a believer out of me. I am concerned about next week however. Others have posted of a possible major pullback late next week. So the question is, do I wait for the pullback and buy more at a cheaper price and ride it to the 14th, or should I just be happy with my gains and try to time an exit before the pullback? Any thoughts?


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  17. #669

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 2 Oct 15.

    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 0.81% -0.29% -3.21% -1.73%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.72% 1.47% -3.95% -7.72% -6.89%



    Good luck in your investments and have a great weekend !!!


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  19. #670

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Hi Raven. Given the state of the market, the state of the economy, and the fact that we rallied today on "what (fewer jobs and reduced factory orders)"...Monday could be a bear trap. Just my opinion. I know there are many bulls that would disagree and I hope they are correct. Maybe the rally today had more to do with the blood moon and the fibonacci sequence..maybe that's what's driving the action because today's rally made no sense.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  21. #671

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 5 Oct 15.

    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 0.57% 1.94% -0.78% 1.36%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.73% 1.75% -3.35% -6.91% -6.70%


    Good luck in your investments and have a great evening !!!


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  23. #672

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 6 Oct 15.
    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 1.21% 0.29% -2.49% 0.83%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.72% 1.91% -4.83% -8.53% -6.94%

    Good luck in your investments and have a great evening !!!


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