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Thread: ravensfan's Account Talk

  1. #613

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by burrocrat View Post
    dude, why did you bail and lock in the loss? at absolutely the worst time? was it for the same reason i jumped in too early and got smacked for -6%? just too much to resist?

    folks mention 'pain points' in markets like this, meaning "that's enough", but did you also know there are 'pleasure points' meaning "i can't get enough"?

    the trick is knowing the difference. and it has something to do with allocation, time horizon, and risk tolerance. i am still trying to figure those things out.

    but it is just as equally clear to me that i should've jumped in monday not friday, as it is to you that you should've got out today not yesterday. this is the only part of the market that i can see or hope to understand, that money play between pleasure and pain and tolerance. all that chart stuff and quants and waves makes me fall asleep and drool.
    At the time I submitted the IFT, I thought it was a smart move considering the S&P was up 40 points at the time. Who could have predicted at the close, it would be 25 points down.

    My thoughts were to stop the bleeding and exit on an up day, (blew that one didn't I) and wait for the next spiral down that the pundits keep talking about and ride the next wave up. If I have learned nothing else since joining this site is that I have quite the knack for being on the sidelines when the market is going up and being heavily invested when they are going down.

    I think sometimes I rely to heavily on Tom's Seasonality Charts to make moves and not enough on my own. You would think by now I would have learned the lesson that past performance does not guarantee future success. Then on the other hand, sometimes I think I would be better off to track some of the top performers on the Auto Tracker and match their moves.

    The goal now is to finish the year strong. Not an easy task, considering I am now -4.62% for the year, but the sweet part of the year is still ahead of us, so with a little luck, I can do it.


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  3. #614

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Well said Burro! One of the toughest decisions we have in TSP (complicated by problems with timing and IFT's, and especially when we are losing money and the markets are down) is whether to hang in there or jump out. It would be great if we had a TSP Ombudsmen (all knowing and altruistic and great with charts of course) who we could converse with (for free) for counsel in those dark moments where either we don't know what to do, or we know what we should do, but the fear\pain is leading us in a different direction. Let me know if there is anybody on the forum like that....well Birchtree maybe
    I hear you man. I keep telling myself to hang in there, that the market will bounce back eventually, then I start looking at the losses and I have flashbacks to 2008, hit the panic button and bail. The funny thing is that back then I didn't pay much attention to my TSP account and through dumb luck, made up all the losses and then some by 2010, all by standing pat and doing nothing. Go figure.

    It would be nice to find a person who could guide us in these turbulent times. JTH used to do that, but he kinda stopped posting back in May. There was another guy (can't remember his name) who used to have a color system, combinations of reds and greens in 8 different configurations, but it was to confusing and he eventually disappeared. I've been following FireWeatherMet's Account Talk lately. He makes a lot of sense and you can't argue with his returns this year.

    Perhaps one day, someone will step forward to lead the masses. In the mean time we'll have to do the best we can with what we have to work with...

    And before someone says "Why don't you try one of the premium sites?" Well I did that for a whole year. I won't mention any names, but his system suddenly stopped working when I got in. It took about 6 months but he finally got it fixed , but by then, I had lost confidence and bailed when my subscription expired. Some people swore he was the greatest thing to ever issue a buy signal, but he just didn't do it for me...


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  5. #615

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    There was another guy (can't remember his name) who used to have a color system, combinations of reds and greens in 8 different configurations, but it was to confusing and he eventually disappeared,
    ebbnflow with his ebbcharts.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  7. #616

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    so what am i then, chopped liver?

    plus i am free.

    that is different than cheap.
    100g

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  9. #617

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Burro! We Love You Man!!!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #618

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by burrocrat View Post
    so what am i then, chopped liver?

    plus i am free.

    that is different than cheap.
    Sorry Burro! I did not mean to offend you. Obviously I did and for that I am truly sorry. And like Fogsailing said, "We Love You Man"!!!


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  13. #619

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Sorry Burro! I did not mean to offend you. Obviously I did and for that I am truly sorry. And like Fogsailing said, "We Love You Man"!!!
    i forgot to use the sarcasm font, was just playing with ya about that part. quite frankly i doubt you could offend me, even if you took your top off and danced on the table and puked margarita and pretzels all over my lap. i would just offer you a ride home...

    no problems here.
    100g

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  15. #620

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 27 Aug 15.

    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 0.19% -4.26% -4.52% -6.67%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.72% 0.94% -5.28% -7.49% -8.42%


    Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!


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  17. #621

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 27 Aug 15.

    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 0.19% -4.26% -4.52% -6.67%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.72% 0.94% -5.28% -7.49% -8.42%


    Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!
    C is the least worst equity... =:-o
    Life is good!


  18.  
  19. #622

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Well said Burro! One of the toughest decisions we have in TSP (complicated by problems with timing and IFT's, and especially when we are losing money and the markets are down) is whether to hang in there or jump out. It would be great if we had a TSP Ombudsmen (all knowing and altruistic and great with charts of course) who we could converse with (for free) for counsel in those dark moments where either we don't know what to do, or we know what we should do, but the fear\pain is leading us in a different direction. Let me know if there is anybody on the forum like that....well Birchtree maybe
    Hey FS,

    Not trying to steal anyone's thunder here at TSPTalk, but I may have found that "TSP Ombudsmen (all knowing and altruistic and great with charts of course) who we could converse with (for free) for counsel in those dark moments where either we don't know what to do, or we know what we should do, but the fear\pain is leading us in a different direction." Check out his article on our recent pullback and the best part, he is free. Enjoy my friend!!!

    ~http://www.tspallocation.com/current-thrift-savings-plan-allocation-and-business-cycle-analysis-august-2015/


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  21. #623

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    I thought I would share this, because I fell into this trap. I wonder how many others at TSPTalk have done the same.

    This entry was posted in TSP Allocation Strategy by TS Paul Follow the link if you would like to read the entire article.

    "Ignore the Financial Media

    The financial media is in the advertising business, not the news business or the financial advising business. They make money when you watch the ads on TV or fall for the click-bait headlines screaming about market collapse. They very intentionally do not put these market events into context, explain that this happens routinely and the world is not ending, or tell you that professional investors use these events to buy more stocks and funds. CNBC doesn’t get you to stay tuned past the next commercial break by bringing on people who will tell you that it is overwhelmingly likely that this is a complete routine non-event, so that’s not what they do."

    I must admit that I spend way more time that is necessary watching these very same business news channels. With the recent pullback, I ran for the G Fund because I listened to the rhetoric, got scared and went into protection mode. I wish I would have read this article before I bailed.


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  23. #624

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 31 Aug 15.

    G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    15 DAY TOTAL 0.18% 0.08% -6.02% -5.31% -7.77%
    60 DAY TOTAL 0.73% 0.94% -5.04% -6.98% -6.37%


    Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!


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