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Thread: ravensfan's Account Talk

  1. #13

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    The drop in the market today is looking good for those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point. However IMHO I think there is more downside to come. I think JTH's post #5785 has the numbers about right. So for now, the word for the week is patience...

    Then on the other hand, if I have a 50/50 shot at something, 90% of the time I'm wrong.

    There, that's my contrarian statement for the week. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
    Hi Ravensfan, yep timing is important. I just looked at charts and drop today was not too bad. News coming in of more possible action by Russia in the next few hours. So maybe that triggers more sell off tomorrow???? who knows. I somehow get the feeling the market doesn't care all that much....to me the sell off seemed light today even with the turmoil. So tomorrow will be interesting.

    But what I'm more curious about are the job numbers, unemployment numbers and more news on earnings coming out almost every day this week. The talking heads each have their own differing views. But a couple today did reiterate thought that they expect a 10-15% decrease sometime this year. I get the feeling it might not be as soon as we keep thinking.....so if doesn't happen until Aug to a Sept, that could mean we should be charging to the top of the hill!?!!! ...Hummm.. Like you I'm still looking for the entry. Maybe later this week! Au Revoir .... Annie
    CURRENT: 2-20-20= 30S-40F-30G // PRIOR: 2-14-20= 30S-30C-40F // 2-11-20= 30S-30C-20I-20F //1-24-20 = G100% // Chart Links=Page 215, #2575 & 2576

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    For those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point, it has been a slow process.

    Since it's high of 1047.54 on 4 March, the S Fund has had four straight down days, but price still remains above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

    The C fund hit a new high of 1878.04 on 4 March and remains firmly above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

    The I Fund seems to be on a downtrend and over the past 10 trading days has averaged a loss of -0.03 per day. However, it did hit a new high of 68.03 on 6 March. Current price is below the 10 day moving average.

    The F Fund appears to be the closest to a buy signal as it has averaged a loss of -0.02 per day, over the past 20 trading days. However, it too hit a new high of 108.35 on 3 March. Current price is below the 10 and 20 day moving averages.

    So for the time being, we will continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for that elusive entry point as the market makes that slooowwww turn towards a buying opportunity.
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

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  5. #15

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    For those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point, it has been a slow process.

    Since it's high of 1047.54 on 4 March, the S Fund has had four straight down days, but price still remains above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

    The C fund hit a new high of 1878.04 on 4 March and remains firmly above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

    The I Fund seems to be on a downtrend and over the past 10 trading days has averaged a loss of -0.03 per day. However, it did hit a new high of 68.03 on 6 March. Current price is below the 10 day moving average.

    The F Fund appears to be the closest to a buy signal as it has averaged a loss of -0.02 per day, over the past 20 trading days. However, it too hit a new high of 108.35 on 3 March. Current price is below the 10 and 20 day moving averages.

    So for the time being, we will continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for that elusive entry point as the market makes that slooowwww turn towards a buying opportunity.
    But a buying opportunity for what? S or F ?
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  7. #16

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    But a buying opportunity for what? S or F ?
    At this point I wouldn't jump in, as none of the funds have triggered a buy signal in my system. As I look at my data, the F Fund is closest to a buy, followed by the I Fund and then the S Fund. With that said, I will continue to monitor my indicators and patiently wait for that buy signal.
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

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  9. #17

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    I'd be careful with that I fund. It has the potential to explode upwards, but just as much so in the opposite direction due to the Ukraine. Simply too much overreaction based on political sentiment.

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by BichonFreeze View Post
    I'd be careful with that I fund. It has the potential to explode upwards, but just as much so in the opposite direction due to the Ukraine. Simply too much overreaction based on political sentiment.
    Agreed. I've been caught more than once feeding at the I Fund trough, only to get smacked down again. Definately proceed with caution.
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Ran my indicators against today's closing numbers and came up with the following.

    F Fund - Today's close finished above the 10, 20 and 50 SMA. This fund has had 4 straight days of gains. There is still room to grow as we are not yet close to the upper bollenger band. Since we are in pullback mode on C, S and I, the F Fund may provide an opportunity for profits as we continue down.

    C Fund - Price closed today below the 10 and 20 SMA. Negative crossovers have occured in MACD and Slow Stochastics and RSI is falling. However, no buy signal yet as we are still a good 26 points above the lower bollenger band. A few more down days and I think we will be there.

    S Fund - As with the C Fund, todays price closed below the 10 and 20 day SMA and we've also had negative crossovers of the MACD and Slow Stoch's. Of the last 10 trading days, 8 of them have been for losses, but we are still 27 points above the lower bollenger band. No buy signal yet.

    I Fund - A buy signal has been issued. Today's closing price is below the 10, 20 and 50 day SMA's, as well as the lower bollenger band. Slow Stoch and MACD have had negative crossovers and RSI is falling. The wild cards are the situation in Ukraine and news out of China. IMHO we could still be heading lower.

    Conclusion - I'm really tempted to throw 20 - 25% at the I Fund. If markets are trending down tomorrow, I'm in. If not I'll wait for a better opportunity next week. I've been burned by the I Fund before, so I tend to play it conservative. If I do get into the I Fund tomorrow, I still have 1 IFT left as I wait for buy signals from the C and or S Funds.

    Disclaimer: The above, is my interpretation of what is happening in the market. They are my opinion and not trading recommendations. However, if they are of help in your investment decisions, I'm glad you found them useful.
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

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  15. #20

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Conclusion - I'm really tempted to throw 20 - 25% at the I Fund. If markets are trending down tomorrow, I'm in. If not I'll wait for a better opportunity next week. I've been burned by the I Fund before, so I tend to play it conservative. If I do get into the I Fund tomorrow, I still have 1 IFT left as I wait for buy signals from the C and or S Funds.
    The I fund definitely is set for an explosive year so I don't see this as a bad long term investment. The only problem is how temperamental the fund is to European influence. In other words situations like Ukraine only serve to muffle what could be the market beating fund this year.

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  17. #21

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Ran my indicators against today's closing numbers and came up with the following.

    F Fund - Today's close finished above the 10, 20 and 50 SMA. This fund has had 4 straight days of gains. There is still room to grow as we are not yet close to the upper bollenger band. Since we are in pullback mode on C, S and I, the F Fund may provide an opportunity for profits as we continue down.

    C Fund - Price closed today below the 10 and 20 SMA. Negative crossovers have occured in MACD and Slow Stochastics and RSI is falling. However, no buy signal yet as we are still a good 26 points above the lower bollenger band. A few more down days and I think we will be there.

    S Fund - As with the C Fund, todays price closed below the 10 and 20 day SMA and we've also had negative crossovers of the MACD and Slow Stoch's. Of the last 10 trading days, 8 of them have been for losses, but we are still 27 points above the lower bollenger band. No buy signal yet.

    I Fund - A buy signal has been issued. Today's closing price is below the 10, 20 and 50 day SMA's, as well as the lower bollenger band. Slow Stoch and MACD have had negative crossovers and RSI is falling. The wild cards are the situation in Ukraine and news out of China. IMHO we could still be heading lower.

    Conclusion - I'm really tempted to throw 20 - 25% at the I Fund. If markets are trending down tomorrow, I'm in. If not I'll wait for a better opportunity next week. I've been burned by the I Fund before, so I tend to play it conservative. If I do get into the I Fund tomorrow, I still have 1 IFT left as I wait for buy signals from the C and or S Funds.

    Disclaimer: The above, is my interpretation of what is happening in the market. They are my opinion and not trading recommendations. However, if they are of help in your investment decisions, I'm glad you found them useful.
    Great analysis! I'm considering some buy in for today or Monday....probably will wait until Monday. Still don't have my strategy set. Gotta get on it but been too sick to do much of that and work and all. Best wishes to all!! DBA
    CURRENT: 2-20-20= 30S-40F-30G // PRIOR: 2-14-20= 30S-30C-40F // 2-11-20= 30S-30C-20I-20F //1-24-20 = G100% // Chart Links=Page 215, #2575 & 2576

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    I Fund is down 0.05 this morning. Will wait on Secy Kerry's news conference and market reaction before making a decision. Still considering throwing 20 - 25% at the I Fund and waiting for a better entry point on the C and S Funds...
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

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  21. #23

    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Well here comes the ambivalent turn right before the deadline.

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: ravensfan's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by BichonFreeze View Post
    Well here comes the ambivalent turn right before the deadline.
    He has been known to flip flop on occasion. Not hatin...just sayin...
    I pride myself on the fact that I will never have a cheesy "uplifting" quote in my signature block...Ever!

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