Thread: userque's Account talk

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Good post Q. Makes you wonder whether this thing extends to a point that we revisit the December lows...I wouldn't be surprised.

FS

I'm not seeing that yet ... but time will surely tell.

UBS warns of a 'major surprise this year' that'll send stocks down 9%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-f...013457750.html

When you stray from the tried and true--and choose seat-of-the-pants cowboy style; you usually run into many unforeseen circumstances. One thing leads to another, which leads to another, so on and so forth. The economy is too important for cherry-picked, biased, non-experts to be experimenting with ... real-time ... IMO. The show is just getting started folks.

Markets signal to US and China on the trade war: You have ‘blundered into a minefield’
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/mark...trade-war.html

• The idea that the U.S.-China trade dispute could turn into something more is starting to become reality.
• The New York Fed’s gauge of recession probability over the next 12 months is now at 27.5%, the highest since the financial crisis.
• “It’s like lighting a match. You think you know how to control it. That’s where the uncertainty comes in,” said Prudential Financial chief market strategist Quincy Krosby.

Daneric sure thinks things are due for more downside too. The Elliott wave chart he posted last night isn't pretty...

Daneric's Elliott Waves: Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May 2019

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

Daneric sure thinks things are due for more downside too. The Elliott wave chart he posted last night isn't pretty...

Daneric's Elliott Waves: Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May 2019

Hmmm. Yesterday, my algos generally forecasted a bounce 'soon.' I'll see what they say tonight.

EDIT:

I normally don't reveal my forecasts freely, but the 'soon' mentioned above was tomorrow, Wednesday. But the algos update daily based on the latest price action, so I won't know if Wednesday is still in play until late-tonight/early-tomorrow, after I run them again.

This is not trading advice, only a free speech revelation as to my algos.

Unintended consequences
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unintended_consequences
(Emphasis added)

Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences in 1936:

1. Ignorance, making it impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis.
2. Errors in analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation.
3. Immediate interests overriding long-term interests.
4. Basic values which may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavourable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values).
5. Self-defeating prophecy, or, the fear of some consequence which drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.

IMHO numbers 3 and 5 ring true in a lot of places today.

(VIDEO) The Mueller Report

A PBS NewsHour/FRONTLINE special
03/26/2019 | 1h 26m 42s

https://www.pbs.org/video/special-re...oc-1553565292/

Harriet Tubman $20 bill no longer coming in 2020: Mnuchin says redesign postponed
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/harr...g-in-2020.html

"...The Tubman design was announced in 2016 by former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew following a 10-month process in which the department sought input from the public.
“The decision to put Harriet Tubman on the new $20 was driven by thousands of responses we received from Americans young and old,” Lew said at the time. “I have been particularly struck by the many comments and reactions from children for whom Harriet Tubman is not just a historical figure, but a role model for leadership and participation in our democracy.”

President Donald Trump, months before he was elected, called the decision to put Tubman on the currency “pure political correctness” and proposed putting her portrait on the $2 bill. ..."

(VIDEO)

Market Mover?

Special counsel Robert Mueller to make statement Wednesday on the Russia probe, his first public comments on the investigation
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/spec...sia-probe.html

• Special counsel Robert Mueller will make a statement on Wednesday regarding his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to a Department of Justice press release.
• The event, scheduled for 11 a.m. ET, will be streamed live on the department’s website, the release said. Mueller will not take questions.