Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

Glad I'm wading up to my knees with this run up, though seeing several articles talking about testing the lows, the bad stuff hasn't arrived yet, yadda yadda. Maybe a move coming up?

FWM just blew past me on the AT! Nice work!

Market analysts all over the place, bear is over, bear not over, rally running out of steam, heading for new highs, buy these defensive stocks... Looking for a dip to add more to C & S, thinking we're at an intermediate high.

Topping tail?

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

RR mentioned this is a frustrating rally - typical bear market rally it seems, stronger and running farther than expected. What is also frustrating are the number of variables that are changing significantly WRT energy, taxes, trade, etc. that is/will impact the market - but in what ways? A look at the last time interest rates were raised, the market went up, allot. Will that continue to be the case here, or are their other variables at work that will drive other outcomes?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

RR mentioned this is a frustrating rally - typical bear market rally it seems, stronger and running farther than expected. What is also frustrating are the number of variables that are changing significantly WRT energy, taxes, trade, etc. that is/will impact the market - but in what ways? A look at the last time interest rates were raised, the market went up, allot. Will that continue to be the case here, or are their other variables at work that will drive other outcomes?

The simplest way to play this market, and what has worked for me (so far) is the "Peter Lynch Method".
He was a famous fund manager of Fidelity Magellan, arguably the best fund manager of all time.
He would often go to the nearby malls, and simply see what the action was, what people were buying most, which stores were the most crowded etc.
ALl I do...is drive by the same gas station on the way to work every day, and simply check its price for Regular.
It has been falling about 1-2 cents a day for the past 7 weeks...was about $5.29 2 months ago...now its $4.39. That was yesterday, today it might be $4.38??
As long as that price keeps slowly going lower...Inflation goes lower...and the chances of the FED doing something unexpected and negative, also goes lower. That means the market goes higher.
That's all anyone needs to know for now (till the next Fed meeting late Sep).
Everything else...is just "white noise".

Also I would just advise against concluding this is a "Bear Market Rally".
It might be...or the June low could have been the bottom, and we are now in a bonafide Bull Market.
I'm about 50/50 on either scenario now, but have to be prepared that either one could be valid.
The longer this rally goes on...the greater the probabilities go that the June bottom was the final bottom. IMHO.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

FWM just blew past me on the AT! Nice work!

Whipsaw, I think you might be blowing up past me today.

Spinning candle or doji today...

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

My rank on the AT today... 69 Excellent!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

My rank on the AT today... 69 Excellent!

Nice job. I wish I was somewhere near that number.

Good Morning Whipsaw, Wow.. I see your still using the BigChart layout! Looking at them, I realize I still like the 5,5 setting on Slow Sto. I may need to re-adopt that! Best wishes to you!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Spinning candle or doji today...

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)