Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Epic

I'm not sure about that specifically, but the best scenario that I've run across so far (for a possible bottom to start forming) is when we hit the 200 week moving average which now stands at about 3465 and slowly rising. No telling how soon that will happen.

Interesting, looking at that same chart today, there are reactions grouping in the 3906 area. It could be an interim bottom forming for a relief rally (my worst case scenario having exited and now in the TSP dead zone). Some local money manager on WRVA this morning was encouraging exits from the market as he thinks we are far from the bottom being in - this would apply to my brokerage account at this point. A relief rally right now would suit me just fine.

Fingers crossed for another day or two of upside action. Good time to consider quality stocks that have been beat down, on sale so to speak. More downside in the works, unfortunately, methinks. Off tomorrow, have a great Memorial Day Weekend.
Remember those who served and gave their all in the defense of this great nation.

I should have expected upside during the lock out; oh well. New account set up, looks like a kindergartener designed it.

The most annoying thing is the complete divergence of opinions on what happens from here... some saying a 3% gain by year end, others saying we go over the cliff. My look at the charts, can't determine if we're in a high base, or a massive bear flag - though it does look like we're turning down again. Missed this runup with the lock out, no moves till next week some time. Have a great weekend everyone!

​In reference to "going over the cliff", I did see someone for the first time use the "D" word instead of the "R" word in my readings this morning. I think the quote was something like ".....and from there we could head into full blown Depression...". It may have been a little extreme, but once that word's out there, there's no turning back. GASP . . . .

Upside resistance is impressive. I sold my SPX position last week while we're in this trading range, fully expecting another leg down based on energy prices, and all the calamity that is expected for summer. We'll see.

I can’t trust the market either. I’m just waiting.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

Look out below! I'm back in the top 100. Anyone want to get cute and try to play a bounce?

I did a partial on Friday and as the afternoon went along I knew I should have waited until today. Yes I still have some I could move over but holding out to see what the next day or so brings. PPI tomorrow I believe and of course Fed on Wednesday. Not a lot of talk from the bulls on the tube today but the week is early. More bear talk out of course the sky is falling so we shall see. Was hoping for that 2-3% bounce again this week but it is not looking good to start out things out today. Honestly that is my approach this year. Maybe not a good approach but my thought was if I could grab a 3 or 4% gain in a month I would take it and rinse and repeat, if possible, the next month. Only very short term in C/S each month. But not sure this will be a good approach. Then again maybe it was just my timing here this month that is not going to allow that to happen for me. I'll be watching with popcorn just like everyone else how the next few days play out. Who knows maybe we get a bounce into the end of the month once all the news comes out this week knowing we have this behind us and waiting for the next big events/news to come out. But I'm not holding my breath, this stuff looks like blood in the streets for sure lol.

A market guy, Dennis Gartman, was on the local radio this morning; said he predicted 15% down months ago. We're over 18% down now - said he was thinking 30-40% at the time but didn't want to say that at the time. he said at this point, those that lose the least, win. Sell strength, don't try to buy dips; the market will be above where it it now in 2-5 years, but will be much lower in the next six months to a year. From the FWIW Department...

Originally Posted by LTJPFED

I did a partial on Friday and as the afternoon went along I knew I should have waited until today. Yes I still have some I could move over but holding out to see what the next day or so brings. PPI tomorrow I believe and of course Fed on Wednesday. Not a lot of talk from the bulls on the tube today but the week is early. More bear talk out of course the sky is falling so we shall see. Was hoping for that 2-3% bounce again this week but it is not looking good to start out things out today. Honestly that is my approach this year. Maybe not a good approach but my thought was if I could grab a 3 or 4% gain in a month I would take it and rinse and repeat, if possible, the next month. Only very short term in C/S each month. But not sure this will be a good approach. Then again maybe it was just my timing here this month that is not going to allow that to happen for me. I'll be watching with popcorn just like everyone else how the next few days play out. Who knows maybe we get a bounce into the end of the month once all the news comes out this week knowing we have this behind us and waiting for the next big events/news to come out. But I'm not holding my breath, this stuff looks like blood in the streets for sure lol.

Your theory sounds great and I think that’s what we’d all like to do every month, but I think it’s way too early yet. I think being patient is pertinent while the performance of the funds has us all perplexed.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS