Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

Well no matter which way it goes, I need to re-evaluate my risk tolerance. Being retired and within one, maybe two years of making monthly withdrawals, I can ill afford big losses.

Anyone have any thoughts on that?

Everyone has different numbers so you will have to estimate your own. I always calculate for a 4-5% draw-down without ever running out of money as mine. What I am basing this on is that even looking at my worst performance years, if I calculate my 3 year averages (going each direction and using the worst year as the "start" point, it works out that I averaged 4% a year. Cumulative over the past 23 I am considerably better than that but I can't calculate all years as the same since the move restrictions kicked in. Caveat is that I am looking at maintaining the balance so I am padding it (by not accounting for depreciation) in case I can't do 4% average gains in the future.

Well, likely shouldn't go much by me, but I'm already "conservative"... only dipping into the other-than-G funds & averaging 2.5-to-4% per year gains. Was thinking of retiring at MRA+2 but that's a year gone so staying till age 62 now. I'm afraid of losing 20%+ and not having time with risk-tolerance to try to make that up.... been expecting another recession / end of the lonnngggg bull for a few years now... then I figure to start DCAing into the CSI funds when/if that happens. Yes, hurts to not make the nice larger gains... but can't keep coming up heads forever (can it?). Good luck figuring our your plan.

Thanks for the input guys. I appreciate your thoughts. I think my strategy is good, just needs some tweaking with some rules to avoid being 100% invested to preserve capital...As you say FAAM, "it hurts to not make the nice larger gains", but not nearly as much as the pain from larger losses.

Have a great evening...

I've alway's appreciated Clester's approach of at 50% invested in a Bull market, and 50% in cash in a Bear market, but haven't tried to run with that.

I'd like to see us climb a wall of worry to the Santa Rally... wishful thinking? It could be mixed up with all the sugar plumbs dancing around.

Definitely agree WS! And especially if the sugar plums are dancing in your head... Like they do in mine!!! Lol.... Mmmmm.... Sugar plums!!! Hey...lets climb a wall of sugar plums instead ...and then lets put a red suit on Trump with a white beard and ask him to say a few nice things to Xi....it could happen!! Believe!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

I've alway's appreciated Clester's approach of at 50% invested in a Bull market, and 50% in cash in a Bear market, but haven't tried to run with that.

I'd like to see us climb a wall of worry to the Santa Rally... wishful thinking? It could be mixed up with all the sugar plumbs dancing around.

Ok...but in all seriousness...looks like we are hitting some fear....looking intraday, looks a little weak. Candles forming wicks on top....kinda holding a little steady so looks like market waiting for more news to go on....

Boom!

Ditto!!!

Fed speak made the market go Ho Ho Ho!!! .

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Fed speak made the market go Ho Ho Ho!!! .

You read it here first folks! DBA makes the call, Santa Rally started today! Thanks DBA!!!