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Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

  1. #3649

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Man, two more up days... Looking at the stochs on the S-fund, above where it was just before the big dump in Feb. Its a day or so past where I thought the next small dip would materialize. So here we are, bouncing along the upper bollinger band. Doji right now, maybe wait one more day?

    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...false&state=11
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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  3. #3650

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    So I briefly looked up the Bollinger band and if I understand the guidance, the chart shows a somewhat narrow band with the price hugging or possibly exceeding the top of the band. This is generally a strong indicator of continued upward movement but we may see the price bounce off the top of the band back towards the bottom of the band. The Fidelity description says "Price can exceed or hug a band envelope for prolonged periods during strong trends. On divergence with a momentum oscillator, you may want to do additional research to determine if taking additional profits is appropriate for you." So I guess I am now asking what a momentum oscillator is? Or is there enough here to indicate what we might expect next?

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  5. #3651

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    flalaw97, I look at the stochiastics (the lower part of the chart at the link), there is a correlation with the stochs being above ~85 and a short term top, a below ~30 for possible entry points; you can see the correlation, though it's certainly not 100%. Its extremely high on the S-fund now, not sure what that indicates, looking for a move down for better entry, but it may keep going like it did in May-Jun...

    DBA and Bquat are really good at this chart stuff.
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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  7. #3652

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Thanks! I am following DBA and Bquat account talk and trying to learn to read the charts. On Aug 3, I was originally thinking of waiting for a dip to get in but seeing the somewhat continuous movement up, I went all in to S because of FOMO and that there wouldn't be a dip until after it had added another 2%. While it doesn't make "sense" given the craziness of COVID, it seems like investors are continuing to dump money in, driving back to February highs. Good luck to all!

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  9. #3653

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Hi WS and Flalaw97! Momentum oscillators include MACD and the Stochastics...always on my charts because they are my Favorites!!

    FL97, Here is link to Stockcharts, Chart School. Tons of reading material but cluck on Technical Indicators and scroll down to read more about each if these. They say you should not use the same types if indicators/oscillators but I like these. The Slow Stochastic or Full Stochastic will usually move up from below the 20 line and cross above their signal lines when price action moves up and these usually lead any move up by MACD by a few days. So I tend to like Stochastic for early entry, but that can bite you.

    Also you sometimes see divergence where the little highs in these indicators over time are slightly sloped down even though prices are rising, or vice versa. They refer to it as Divergence, because they move in opposite direction of price, which can mean there is going to be a price reversal. Thing is...no telling how long it will take to happen. So its good to also learn how to draw trend lines, use moving averages and their cross overs and candle patterns to find area where price will resist moving higher or WA support area where price will tend to at least hold or temporarily stop dropping further.... lol... plus you can also throw in the kitchen sink and count the number of squirrels playing in the back yard, etc. gotra laugh cuz its kinda insane to look at these many things....i like to try keeping it simple.

    I know this can seem overwhelming, but from looks of it, your doing great!

    I just say, Just learn one thing at a time and build your knowledge base. I look at all this stuff cuz I love it... (but I do hate the market!) It's what I'd call a love-hate relationship! But honestly, I love listening to Ira Epstein because he explains his methods pretty well; though I can tell you his actual trading method is much more in-depth and complex than his videos. Way more, but his method is meant for people outside TSP that can actually set the price they want to enter and exit....he doesn't have to deal with this dumb one entry, one exit per month while blind and hog-tied for 4 hours before the closing end of day price and no way to exit after the noon cutoff.... like we must deal with in TSP! eeeeeee.... I could go on and on, but I must retire to cry into my margarita glass while I play with charts...lol!

    Here is link: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php


    Best wishes to you and everyone!!!
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 08-06-2020 at 04:39 PM.
    Please do not take my comments as trading advice Current: G50-S30-C20. //Prior:8-25-20=G100%/ Chart Links=Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895

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  11. #3654

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Thanks DBA! I like your description of the TSP! flalaw97 made a smart move, I think; we may only see sideways action as opposed to a dip, though we are at the top of a rising wedge and Tom's observation of a fake out break out should be considered. Futures are heading south, so maybe I'll be on the right side of the market for once.

    Happy Friday everyone!
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun


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  13. #3655

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Well, the pattern recognition postulate is holding as the recent patterns have since changed. If nothing happens on Monday, I'll have to get back in I guess...
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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  15. #3656

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Well, my week hiatus, based on prognostications in several areas that didn't bear out (so to speak), was a bust. Missed out on a much needed 3.5%. :-/ I will likely be jumping all in today for a long ride. I've been watching that TopNotch guy for his moves... he entered last week but didn't put it in the AT.
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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  17. #3657

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    100% S COB
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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  19. #3658

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    This must be a new feature of the redesign... big warning on using your 2nd IFT:

    Interfund transfer limit: You have already made one interfund transfer this month. Each calendar month, your first two interfund transfers may be used to redistribute money in your account among any of the TSP funds. If you choose to proceed with a second interfund transfer this month, any subsequent interfund transfers for the remainder of the month can only move money into the Government Securities Investment (G) Fund.
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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  21. #3659

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    This must be a new feature of the redesign... big warning on using your 2nd IFT:

    Interfund transfer limit: You have already made one interfund transfer this month. Each calendar month, your first two interfund transfers may be used to redistribute money in your account among any of the TSP funds. If you choose to proceed with a second interfund transfer this month, any subsequent interfund transfers for the remainder of the month can only move money into the Government Securities Investment (G) Fund.
    They know BETTER than US!laughdog.giffunny%20but%20crazy.gif
    09/21/2020
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$39.31 a Barrel, Daily Status -$1.88

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  23. #3660

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Futures are up!

    Need to stick to the moving averages plan! I know a dip is likely coming, but how big, or small for that matter? Last weeks gains would have offset a sizable dip; oh the folly of my ways.
    100% S COB 10 Aug; was 50% G, 50% F COB 3 Aug; was 100% S COB 1 July; was 100% G COB 24 Jun; was 100% S COB 04 Jun

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