Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

Originally Posted by nasa1974

I want to throw up.

Ah, I see the puke indicator has been triggered.

Originally Posted by userque

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https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsp...-sell-off.html

ah… I see.. Thank you UQ... I guess I remembered it wrong. Humm… if it is up on Friday, I will wait until Monday. But Tuesday (yesterday) was a horrible day and did not match the normal historical seasonality either for either Monday or Tuesday (due to sheer drop of cliff that occurred---worse than seasonality). So I am going to rely on my reading of the technical indicators.

So far, when price gets below 20 on Stochastic price usually starts to rise.... unless it is still a falling knife. I am now starting to think the bottom could be in (for a short period--few days) only because we have pretty much hit the October lows and hit some chart lows from last year last quarter. So risky Short Term entry still contemplated very soon.

I wonder if we get a Santa Rally... I tend to think that once it starts moving up from 20 on Stochastic, it will go all the way up to 80--but how long it stays there is the question and I will not be waiting to find out. I tend to think it will drop once more during 1st-2nd week in December and then make a Santa Rally---but again touching back down to the 20 Stochastic before the start of the Santa Rally is key ( in my mind... lol ).

Yes... so I wonder if that means we have hit a Short term bottom??? I lean towards a yes. Well... at least until late next week G20 meeting... that should be a market mover.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Ah, I see the puke indicator has been triggered.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

With the trend into the holiday being down, and hitting what looks like a second test of the lows, I'm optimistic to get at least some of my losses back. At any rate, need to look at a different tack going forward. Here's a good read.
Here’s how to tell if stocks will enter a bear market or rise to new highs

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-tell-if-stocks-will-enter-a-bear-market-or-rise-to-new-highs-2018-11-20

It may be a very short term bottom. I'm with DBA in waiting and seeing. If you look at a 5day we are still in a narrow(ing) range. On volume that is about 1/3 of where the average is. Fundamentals are overall good but earnings has driven this market for so long. As the Fed increases rates, and the trade war fears continue, the big boys are nervous about throwing their money in. Tech stocks are prime examples of the direct effect this is having. That said, if the Fed has more "normalizing" language in their next statement, and Trump meets with Xi at the G-20 so look for that news around Nov 30/Dec 1. Add in the potential of a government shutdown as of Dec 7 and we have a lot to digest besides just the financial fundamentals this Turkey day!

So...even though most of us celebrate with a dead bird...lets all get with our loved ones, or at least have them in our thoughts and prayers, and try our best to be truly thankful this Turkey day!

Safe travels everyone!!!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

With the trend into the holiday being down, and hitting what looks like a second test of the lows, I'm optimistic to get at least some of my losses back. At any rate, need to look at a different tack going forward. Here's a good read.
Here’s how to tell if stocks will enter a bear market or rise to new highs

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-tell-if-stocks-will-enter-a-bear-market-or-rise-to-new-highs-2018-11-20

Good article...Thanks WS! Here is link.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ghs-2018-11-20

Good analysis DBA.
Got my fingers crossed that Tsunami is correct.
FS

Futures are UP! Maybe my 'post holiday reversal' prediction will pan out.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Futures are UP! Maybe my 'post holiday reversal' prediction will pan out.

Looks like it is coming true! Woo... hooo…..

Would it be irrational to sit tight through the New Year?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Would it be irrational to sit tight through the New Year?

Hmm??? Interesting thought, but this current trade has been brutal. I just can't see us making up the last two months by the end of the year. But if Trump and Xi can come up with a trade deal, perhaps we get some of it back...

At this point, I'm just hoping to get back into positive territory by years end...