Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

Held off jumping in today; MRJ cooling off period observation along with JTH call of a top has me taking a tactical pause. I chose 'Whipsaw' for a reason, working to break that MO. With my luck it will take off again on Monday . Thanks for the thread views! Over 700 now, whew... and onto a second page . Have a great weekend everyone!

Missing the deadline the other day has proven fortuitous; I can almost consider myself my own contrarian indicator. Still 100%G since COB 17 Sep. Considering JTH's last chart, we're approaching the bottom of the trading channel he drew (SPX 1688). Looks as though a bounce may have occured at 1695, watching closely, have to make a call by 1100 today if I'm going in.

100% S COB today... Thanks Uptrend! I think!

I was a little worried with the 'post noon deadline' sell off yesterday (better entry price though :toung, and then today's weak open... so far so good.

Futures are up as jobless claims fall... Wall Street to rise on data, Washington in focus - Yahoo Finance

Does that mean there are more jobs or more folks giving up looking?

The elephant dances in DC are obviously causing perturbations in the market. The market should pop once agreement is reached and the gov't is funded; will it continue to rise w/QE... or if O-care is funded, will that lead to further decline? Maybe its baked in... Bottom line, ride it out or punch? Thoughts?

That so many positive factors exist is bullish. That they are so little talked about is even more bullish. That gap between too dour sentiment and better than realized reality is a powerful positive factor for stocks through year end and well into 2014.

Thanks Birtchtree, I've seen that sentiment in a few places and will probably stay long... S fund has been strong, recovering down gaps and essentially trading flat this past week. Still 100% S, was tempted to take 50% off (ala DBA) but couldn't get logged in the TSP site in time. Hopefully whatever happens in DC, any losses will recover in short order. I would image if o-care is delayed, that would be bullish for stocks. If the house blinks... then what? More of the same?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Thanks Birtchtree, I've seen that sentiment in a few places and will probably stay long... S fund has been strong, recovering down gaps and essentially trading flat this past week. Still 100% S, was tempted to take 50% off (ala DBA) but couldn't get logged in the TSP site in time. Hopefully whatever happens in DC, any losses will recover in short order. I would image if o-care is delayed, that would be bullish for stocks. If the house blinks... then what? More of the same?

hi..glad you didn't pullout...I did not pull out today...I jumped in ..went from 100% in g to 50 % into market (25% s plus 25% c)... Somehow the tracker did not record. That happened last time too.. Tom is fixing. All this political stuff shouldn't cause a long term drop. All last week prices were dropping so I saw it as a good buying opportunity and good use of my last IFT. Might be even better tomorrow. Week before that, I got out one day before Bernanke talked to lock in gains to that point. So I didn't experience any of the drop last week but I lost out on that huge one- day gain when mr. B talked ...wish I had bailed a day later. Yes I am trying to time market. Not easy! Still experimenting to see how I do...been doing that since May...conclusion so far is that I need to invest more of my piggy as gains would be better but I have not lost anything yet. Each transaction has been a gain. I refuse to get out until I can get out with a gain....otherwise I let it ride...best thing to do in this huge bull market!!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

hi..glad you didn't pullout...I did not pull out today...I jumped in ..went from 100% in g to 50 % into market (25% s plus 25% c)... Somehow the tracker did not record. That happened last time too.. Tom is fixing. All this political stuff shouldn't cause a long term drop. All last week prices were dropping so I saw it as a good buying opportunity and good use of my last IFT. Might be even better tomorrow. Week before that, I got out one day before Bernanke talked to lock in gains to that point. So I didn't experience any of the drop last week but I lost out on that huge one- day gain when mr. B talked ...wish I had bailed a day later. Yes I am trying to time market. Not easy! Still experimenting to see how I do...been doing that since May...conclusion so far is that I need to invest more of my piggy as gains would be better but I have not lost anything yet. Each transaction has been a gain. I refuse to get out until I can get out with a gain....otherwise I let it ride...best thing to do in this huge bull market!!

DBA! I'm very glad I didn't take any off the table at this point. FWM posted Cramer saying 'It's time to take money off the table.' Holy counter-intuitive Batman! But what does this say? The shutdown is baked in? QE(infinity) is pushing beyond negatives? Will this continue? In this environment I'm taking BT's 'sitting still to run fast' to heart, but still trying to manage/time trades better. I said in a previous post that I can be my own contrarian indicator, trying to use that to my advantage Mostly though, I read the sage advice of the folks on this forum to inform choices. Thank you for your thoughts and the time put into them. We need to do well here beat inflation/devaluation!

Futures are down this morning... lets hope the S fund keeps its recent resiliency and climbs out Will have to keep an eye on the shutdown/credit default/debt cieling mess.


... and now for something compeltely different...


Finding myself unequivocally in the 'non-essential' column, I now have some time to address some of the back burnered projects on the homestead.
- Rehabbing the Troy-Bilt mower that stopped running many moons ago [ replaced fuel lines, cleaned the gook out of the fuel system, flushed the sludge out of the crank case, put in a new coil(sparking again!), installed new drive belt (bought just before it quit). Next, painting the cover and part of the pan... ]
- Oil, filter change & chassis lube for the Jeep
- Install exhaust cross-over pipe on the 450SL, paint the air cleaner, clean and grease the front wheel bearings
- Paint the patio overhead
- regrout the shower (maybe...)

Will check back in around 1130...