Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

I have been displaying my strategy in and outs since Mid-May. I have considered not posting them as this is just my read and I am not a market expert. Will see how long I continue to post that.

Please keep posting them...I am no expert at all on MACD and STO and enjoy reading your take on them.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Anyone in market this week gets a big Congrats from me! Very Happy for you and I am always happy when TSP folks hit the mark.

My only concern was whether FWM was expressing his euphoria on my thread to take a dig at me? Maybe I am wrong about that and will give benefit of the doubt.

Here are today's charts.

Sorry...no dig here (except for maybe a friendly one, to someone else, on my own Account Talk-lol)....had some wine that evening... and was just feeling good that my theories came to fruition.
But like Toms said, one can get humbled very quickly by the markets, I'm sure my Day of Reckoning will be coming at some point, (it always does) esp if I stray from my system of staying ahead of the major indices, by using small baby steps of outs and ins...but staying mostly in stocks, unless the world is ending 2008-Mar 2009...and Jan-June this year.

Have a great weekend.

Bquat, I get that feeling as well. The markets were falsely propped for many years with quantitative easing. So eventually it must come down, but so far it's only come down close to what it was before the pandemic. I do believe the Fed speak on Wednesday was purposely dovish. Election is coming up and there are props to deny a recession. I do wonder how much of the Fed balance sheet is unwinding. I get the feeling maybe they will not get to that with any fervor until mid-November.

I have said I don't consider or "look at the news" but I need to clarify that. I do listen to the news every day, but don't believe it can be relied on to make a decision when it hits the street because by then it's too late. I believe the market moving "news" is already known to those in the know before that news hits the street. Kinda like Trading Places but in many other forms. In that movie Mortimer and Randolph Duke, of Duke and Duke were buying info not yet disclosed on commodities trading. But I do believe there are many other ways that insiders get advanced news and trade in advance using that news. Then subtle telltale signs can be seen using technical indicators and algorithms. That is what I am trying to see....those hidden telltale signs. Yes, you can think I am crazy but I actually heard a long-term professional trader mention that last year! Wow! Made me feel good to know someone else thinks that too! Huh!

So, I continue studying technical indicators, daily and weekly price action/candles, volume and search for divergences. The news is baking into those charts and then explodes into price action..

Ugghhh... It becomes a big pain and overwhelming at times to study charts, price action, etc. So much seems rigged... Knowledge on Institutional buying, after hours trading, middlemen who set/execute the trades. I am glad I like studying charts, and that could be viewed as crazy but in a goodway or so I hope!

FWM, You have very good reason to be proud of nailing it! You did very good in your analysis. Best wishes to you and everyone!

Originally Posted by Bquat

I am kind of thinking the same thing. My charts keep getting overwhelmed by the news push all the time. I have a fear that the market is falsely propped up but I don't have any proof. I am going to check out how the premium services are doing because today's market seems like news trading instead of market analysis.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

I have been displaying my strategy in and outs since Mid-May. I have considered not posting them as this is just my read and I am not a market expert. Will see how long I continue to post that.

Originally Posted by Bquat

I am kind of thinking the same thing. My charts keep getting overwhelmed by the news push all the time. I have a fear that the market is falsely propped up but I don't have any proof. I am going to check out how the premium services are doing because today's market seems like news trading instead of market analysis.

Capture01.PNG Please, Please, Please keep posting your thoughts and info (but only if you want). It's soooo much better to hear and see different views on the market from multiple sources. Everyone has a different take, so just put it out there and let the reader decide whether they take your interpretation and analysis to heart. Just do your thing and ignore the rest. Works for me......

Thank you Epic! I just don't want anyone to take the calls (green & red vertical lines) to heart based on my current strategy. If I had no fear I would follow them. As time goes on, maybe my resolve will strengthen especially IF IF IF it generates decent gains during the last half of 2022. Obviously the full exit (second red line) was premature... And only gap in MACD maybe would have been reason to stay in longer...until better charts developed. Ehhh... Who knows

Here are charts. Market was a bit down but turned around during past 15 minutes or so.

Best wishes to all!

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

Charts

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

More charts...Bond yields should continue going up, so bonds (F fund) should be dropping. The dollar is dropping, so stocks should drop. will see...

03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png



Yields starting to turn upward on 10 year chart, so bonds may start dropping. Looking at Slow Sto & RSI(7).
06 - TNX 10 year yields.png


Dollar looks like it may turning upwar...Looking at Slow Sto and RSI.
07 - Dollar UUP.png

Looks like C fund dropping as advertised. S fund holding on. Feels a bit like trying to build higher base but August can be a killer month that can retake July’s gain if a shoe drops. Believe it is fine watching this play out. If we get a bigger pullback might add some back in. Still don’t have that shoe drop news…where it comes from who knows. 😖🙃

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

More charts...Bond yields should continue going up, so bonds (F fund) should be dropping. The dollar is dropping, so stocks should drop. will see...

03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png



Yields starting to turn upward on 10 year chart, so bonds may start dropping. Looking at Slow Sto & RSI(7).
06 - TNX 10 year yields.png


Dollar looks like it may turning upwar...Looking at Slow Sto and RSI.
07 - Dollar UUP.png

Agree Felix. It is really high right now. Had pulled back a bit (not enough to enter) and now looks like it wants to resume upward. Will see. I need a bigger drop to consider buyin.

charts. Looks like F fund may continue downward as the 10-year interest yield ($TNX) looks like it is just starting to ramp up.

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png


04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

Here is the 10 yr bond interest rate YIELD. The Full Stochastic shows it is now moving up over 20 line, which should mean our F Fund (bonds) should drop in price.

Also, posting the Dollar...UUP...it's starting to rise. Not always, but often runs opposite of the overall stock market.

Inverse relationships. I try to check these daily, but do forget!


06 - TNX 10 year yields.png


07 - Dollar UUP.png

SWEEEEEEEET ! ! ! ! ! New charts