Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Originally Posted by cedarpine

https://on.mktw.net/397AO8i Check out this article from MarketWatch - The stock market and inflation: How the S&P 500 performs on CPI report days



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Dang…todays CPI is ugly…jumps above March high number. This just sucks. Inflation still climbing. FED acted way too slow. Tough times look to continue for the forseeable future.

Thanks for the link cedarpine. Don't want to hijack DBA's thread but interesting discussion on all this. With the CPI number being higher than projected what does that do for the Fed next week? Some discussing more than 50 BP hike should be in play now. Maybe a 75 or 100? What would that do for the markets? Would they really move higher thinking that a higher hike would tame inflation faster and therefore would benefit the economy? Not sure but interesting points.

All I know is now I think all that rangebound action over the last 10 days or so, except yesterday, was simply consolidation/reallocations by institutional moves. Tom mentioned in this mornings report about little insider selling. I believe all this just was just that. Institutional moves were reallocating for just the selloff yesterday and today, although still early and we know markets can reverse. Perhaps some downside protection being done over the last week in front loading the CPI number. As cedarpine pointed out the triple witching, which ironically I have heard no analyst speak of the last couple days but I haven't had ear to news all day either. We might see this day have some serious volume and a bigger down day than yesterday. Tom and others are always saying they try to get us leaning the wrong way. Is the downside the wrong way? Maybe they are trying to push this down going into the FOMC which may turn out to be a higher BP hike and in turn pushes the markets higher? IDK. My head hurts thinking about all this lol.

Trade what we see not what we think will happen right. At this point we are down, market hasn't opened, anything can happen so we could trade in green or flat by COB. I thought about a move the other day and now thinking about it even more. Was waiting for some dips so maybe I will dip my toes in today. All that talk of a change in the BP rate hike has me thinking though. That would be the only thing that could reverse the markets I would think. My gut says what I've been thinking all along is we were going to go back to retest the lows. With all the data out now and looking at the charts I'm thinking that is the direction we will go short term. The question is when to jump off the lily pad and how much. I need more coffee lol.

Great points LTJPFED... And thank you to everyone!

Here are charts... Ugly!

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


03 - I FUND - EFA DAILY.png


04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

Charts as of a few mins ago.
01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND - EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

Obviously, with this market action I am not yet looking at an entry. Would need to see MACD default cross above its signal line, or something positive. Will be watching indicators for a very short turnaround. It's an ugly afternoon with S and down 5.24% a few minutes ago.

I hear some on FBN (Kaultbaum) indicating Fed would need to increase rates 2% on Wednesday and even then, that would not be enough to slow inflation. Just too little, too late. Will be interesting to see what action they take Wednesday. Definitely want to hear that speech and how Powell answers questions.

Best wishes to everyone!


01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

Larry Kudlow's show on Fox Business News today was VERY good. Lots of information about what is needed to bring down inflation. Stats on US oil and gas production. It will repeat at 4:00AM CT.

Hi, Here are charts. As of yesterday, S Fund is below the Pre-Covid high of February 2020.

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


03 - I FUND - EFA DAILY.png


04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

Weekly - S Fund.

Attachment 54684

Charts
01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

charts

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png