Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Originally Posted by ravensfan

I heard another 30% down from here...meaning S&P could fall to 3000...

I'm down 20%+ already. I can't survive another 30%.

Well, I do believe the 2007-2008 bear fell around 50% when all was said and done. So, if this is it, I would not be surprised to see it drop about that much. I am no expert but if it has happened before, it can happen again!

Looking back at 2007-2008 drop.
Attachment 54415

Here are the numbers so far from the highs of late last year until now. Chart below says intraday, but these are COB numbers at end of day today.
2022 .jpg

posting the2007-2008 drop info again. Hope its valid this time and displays.

unnamed.jpg

I reckon what happens to the cost of auto fuel on top of everything else should a big hurricane in the Gulf shut down a refinery or two? We may need to buy stock in bicycle companies.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

DBA, Great charts thanks. Felt it in 2008 and feeling it now.

To me this does not feel like 2008.

In 2008 there was an obvious bubble in loans - mortgage, auto, credit, etc. Everybody was a real-estate grinder or a real-estate loan broker. Every radio show had ads on 'No Money Down' loans and 'Interest Only' loans. Financial talk radio was all in on 'this market is different' yammer. I bailed on much of my equity holdings in late 2007 after a close relative in real-estate told me that housing prices could never go down and her husband just became a loan broker. That made a 20% correction a sure thing

Anyway, there is a bubble in real-estate that will have to correct. And, there was a bubble in crypto and technology that had to correct and have. However, other than crypto, the bubbles were not overly excessive and were manageable by the FED. Just raising interest rates by a couple of points over a year or two would have done it. It would have probably resulted in a 20% drawdown in equities and a bit less in housing value.

But, we chose poorly and are now stuck in a FED induced deflation while concurrently living a Treasury and Regulatory induced inflation.

Hard to do, but we have succeeded!!!

In sports, we call this 'an unforced error'

What I would watch out for is annuities. Those were the bubbly ads that I kept hearing on financial talk and by financial talking heads. Buy this annuity and you will have guaranteed income for life, buy this annuity and you will never have a down year, by this annuity and you will share in market gains... Whatever. An annuity is nothing more than a managed cash/property/bond/equity account. Properly managed and conservatively allocated it can weather downturns because it is multi-generational. Poorly managed and on the edge and it is AIG. If equities, bonds, and property values decline concurrently with inflation and this mess lasts for some duration of time than the number crunching backbone of annuities will fail. And, math does not care about you or me or anybody else.

GLHF

Thanks for all your comments. Will think more on this and what makes this different from 2008.

Here are morning charts. gotta run!

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND - EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png

Originally Posted by rangerray

I reckon what happens to the cost of auto fuel on top of everything else should a big hurricane in the Gulf shut down a refinery or two? We may need to buy stock in bicycle companies.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

Only to be stymied by a gubment announcement of an innertube shortage...

Charts

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND - EFA DAILY.png