Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

The I fund dropped today and the Dollar jumped today. So foreign currencies dropped against the dollar. Hummm.... ??

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/201...-stock-market/

Just looked at charts this morning. A little ugly, but not completely unexpected. Price did drop below 10 day EMA...yesterday for C and I fund and two days ago on S fund. S and C fund dropped below short-term trendlines 3 days ago (day before Fed meeting). For me personally, a breech of 10 Day EMA is my "drop dead" exit signal.

Of course that breech does not always result in a major downturn, but from what I have seen that breech is not typically good. So I observe it to ensure I am not in market when it starts a major downturn and to prevent me from getting sucked into mentality of "riding it out". This is for capital preservation and, as you all know, I don't do losses very well. I see that the I-fund is still above its longer term trend line. If it breaks that support level, watch out.

Because exiting on 10day EMA can still involve an ugly loss (as Whipsaw once pointed out), my charts show 3-day and 7-day EMAs to consider earlier exits. Of course, I also consider other indicators (MACD, RSI, Stochastics), trendline breeches, candlestick patterns, Dollar, VIX, interest rates, seasonality, news/economic metrics, Fed decisions and NAAIM exposure.

Best wishes to everyone and hope you have a good weekend!

Dwcpf.png

SPX now.png

I FUND - EFA. now.png

I just looked at Friday's COB charts and weeklies. Well.. Here is my take. Best Wishes!

S Fund – Finished with -1.26% drop. Still within a midterm Trading range that started in February. It touched the 50 day EMA intraday on Friday, but still above it at 2190.16. If it breaks down from here, next support is 100 day at 2164.43…roughly 25 points. Slow Stochastic is now at 50.31 and RSI 14 is now below 50 at 48.63, and default MACD is just now crossing below its signal line, and so I suspect market will go lower. I noticed that IWM (Russell 2000) did drop 2.27% on Friday with high volume. So, that shows some conviction. BUT when I look at weekly chart, I notice it is going into a pipe (tightened Bollinger Bands). So, while I do believe price will drop some more, probably bringing the Slow stochastic below 20. I think I would like to see those weekly bands expand and for price to show direction before entry. Will see….

Daily
Dwcpf.png

Weekly
Weekly DWCPF.png

C Fund – dropped -1.31% on Friday, fell through its 50day EMA and almost touched the lower Bollinger Band. This happened on high volume, so seems likely this could continue down a bit longer. RSI, MACD default and Slow Stochastic also down. On Weekly chart, I noticed that price action this past week fell below a longer term trendline and rising wedge that goes back to March 2020. That is bearish. Also, noticed that during the past seven weekly price actions, this weekly chart has now formed a lower high and very slight lower low (bearish).

Daily
SPX now.png

Weekly
Weekly SPX.png

I Fund - On daily chart, price dropped 1.91%, but not on high volume and held at bottom longer term trendline, so that’s good. But indicators for RSI, Slow Stochastic and MACD default all dropping….With Slow Stochastic at 34.67. Maybe it goes down more too. On Weekly chart, its clear tge fund lost four weeks of gains. This past loss was on fairly high volume, so its showing some conviction, but it is not below mid-point of Bollinger Bands. It will be interesting to see how this week goes. It has not yet made a lower low. So, seems neutral for short-term.

Daily
I FUND - EFA. now.png

Weekly
Weekly I Fund.png

Market showing a little life this morning, but not enough to entice me into buying into last week's losses. Will see how it does tomorrow.
At this time, S fund is .60% up, C fund is .65% up and I fund is .45% up.

Best wishes to all!!!

Dwcpf.png

SPX now.png

I FUND - EFA. now.png

That's some kind of sideways trading channel we've been in! As always, thanks for the charts.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

That's some kind of sideways trading channel we've been in! As always, thanks for the charts.

Expect some of this rally to be sold off by the end of the day. Dead cat bounce. 😉

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Expect some of this rally to be sold off by the end of the day. Dead cat bounce. 😉

That’s what I’m thinking. I’ve got very mixed indicators.

Not much time left... Feels a little manipulative.

Been away all day and just now seeing COB candles. Wow! Seems very strong. Up in morning and kept fairly steady until last hour drop with rally into close. Must reassess in morning. Futures up a bit right now.

15 minute chart on S Fund
Dwcpf.png

Yes I think that it is a little early to jump back in for me. would like to see more of an up turn in the charts to confirm.

Originally Posted by SoTex

Yes I think that it is a little early to jump back in for me. would like to see more of an up turn in the charts to confirm.

I am looking at russell 2000 and and IWM, right now I am thinking there is more downside.