Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

At what point will the market decide to crash with feds having it's back?

Originally Posted by MrSnapps

Yesterday gain was nuts.

With S fund at 75.8003 much higher it can go before it drops?

We kept asking the same question throughout 2020. If you had put all of your money in the S fund in April 2020 and then just left it there, it grew almost 100%. In 8 months! So the question isn't how much higher can it go, but what indicators do you see that will likely result in it dropping?

COVID...

Originally Posted by flalaw97

We kept asking the same question throughout 2020. If you had put all of your money in the S fund in April 2020 and then just left it there, it grew almost 100%. In 8 months! So the question isn't how much higher can it go, but what indicators do you see that will likely result in it dropping?

True so true. The over all market have been and is still off its rocker. Look at BITCOIN. I mean really 40K today.

IMO because the FED has made it impossible to invest in a safe way and has no problems tossing money at the problem. The market has become detached from reality. I find it difficult to understand how the market can only looks ahead (which makes sense) and guess that companies will will make X times more than they are today. Yes I know you can estimate, but in the real life environment that we are in, I have a hard time thinking that they can guess that for instance say Carnival Cruise who made a 2019 adjusted net income of $3.0 billion, or $4.0 adjusted EPS is going to make 3-4 times that this year even if the vaccine works to get them back to the 2019 level of earning mostly when there is only so many ships. Are they going to raise the price to make the estimate. Hmmm wouldn't that be inflation and cause the FED to start raising rates thereby defeating their whole plan. See https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-6#:~:text=Record%20total%20revenues%20for%20the,bi llion%20for%20the%20prior%20year.

I suppose they could start buying back their own stock so the available pool is small. True this is just an example and Carnival isn't back to its all time high but I would bet this hypothesis applies to many company's.

The smart ones were the buy and holders and unfortunately I wasn't one of them so maybe I am wrong in my assessment as well.

I have only been on this site for less than a year and I do not follow anything other than the TSP funds so for me, I don't feel like I need to figure out the broader picture or any individual stocks. I have learned what seems like a ton about following the DWCPF (S), SPX (C) and EFA(I) indices and the charts that BQuat and Coolhand post. Because TSP investors options are quite limited both in terms of funds and transactions, this actually makes it seem easier to me. As I watch the S fund jump over 2% today (with 15 minutes left in the trading day), I just continue to be amazed that in a single day in the market, my 401K can add those kinds of dollars. I came to this site after the March 2020 drop (which I luckily avoided most of) looking for ways to make sense of just these funds and I feel alot more confident now then I did when I first started. Unlikely I will ever be an expert but thanks to all of those on this site, I feel like at least my moves are based on a reasoned analysis, not just a headline. Good Luck!

Originally Posted by flalaw97

I have only been on this site for less than a year and I do not follow anything other than the TSP funds so for me, I don't feel like I need to figure out the broader picture or any individual stocks. I have learned what seems like a ton about following the DWCPF (S), SPX (C) and EFA(I) indices and the charts that BQuat and Coolhand post. Because TSP investors options are quite limited both in terms of funds and transactions, this actually makes it seem easier to me. As I watch the S fund jump over 2% today (with 15 minutes left in the trading day), I just continue to be amazed that in a single day in the market, my 401K can add those kinds of dollars. I came to this site after the March 2020 drop (which I luckily avoided most of) looking for ways to make sense of just these funds and I feel alot more confident now then I did when I first started. Unlikely I will ever be an expert but thanks to all of those on this site, I feel like at least my moves are based on a reasoned analysis, not just a headline. Good Luck!

I too am new and have learned a lot this past year. One thing I learned: don't sit for too long in 100%G. Keep a minimum of at least 20 or 30% in C or S or some combination (unless it's really bad like last March). My reasoning, with our limited IFT's it's hard to change gears quickly so while you wait to confirm an uptrend you're still doing better than 100G. Then when you are more confident things are trending up you can add in more. Likewise when things are starting to go south slowly back off if you're 100% in equities. That way if it drops you won't loose as much. If it's dropping quickly be more aggressive in going into G more (easier to do if you're near the end of the month and after your 2 IFT's). But keep that minimum in in case it turns up all of a sudden.

Very good points! . Thank you all!

Staying in more than not is a good strategy, at least until certain dma crossovers occur...like 13dMA dropping below 20dMA. If one waits for this you might take a hit, but definitely better than exiting when 20 dma drops below 50dma.

DWCPF -daily.png

Retread, I REALLY like your strategy! Changing gears is tough and money can be lost waiting for ones strategy to trigger entry.

I like to step out slowly as well if things are iffy or just don't want so much exposure. Best wishes to you and everyone!

Originally Posted by retread

I too am new and have learned a lot this past year. One thing I learned: don't sit for too long in 100%G. Keep a minimum of at least 20 or 30% in C or S or some combination (unless it's really bad like last March). My reasoning, with our limited IFT's it's hard to change gears quickly so while you wait to confirm an uptrend you're still doing better than 100G. Then when you are more confident things are trending up you can add in more. Likewise when things are starting to go south slowly back off if you're 100% in equities. That way if it drops you won't loose as much. If it's dropping quickly be more aggressive in going into G more (easier to do if you're near the end of the month and after your 2 IFT's). But keep that minimum in in case it turns up all of a sudden.

Very good points Quabit! I keep wondering the same thing. How much longer can this market go up---It's crazy high! Now that all bitcoin (total quantity) is set, I should think it continues up unless the Government (and big bank elites) decide to squash and control it via regulation. Will see on that.

But no doubt market is detached from reality. Don't be caught in equities when the music stops!

Flalaw, You asked what indicators would indicate a drop. Watching for key daily moving average crossovers like those mentioned in post #3272 is a minimum IMHO. But, you might want to look for appearance of doji's candle(s) along upper part of Bollinger Band after an extended uptrend. I have observed they do tend to appear before small and sometimes larger pull backs. Also watch for MACD to cross below its signal line along WITH Stochastics (K%) dark signal line dropping below 80. Not always perfectly in sync, but if you study prior year charts, I think you will see that happens often. Also agree, a reasoned analysis is better than following just a headline. I try to only look at chart indicators, but sometimes ignoring the news can hurt if the "news" will affect market long term.

Check out this link to see full year of candles. Notice doji's near the following dates: 2/17, 4/14, 6/6, 8/28, 9/16, 10/12, 12/23/2020.
https://schrts.co/QXzZuMEb


Best wishes to you both and to everyone* !

Originally Posted by quabit

True so true. The over all market have been and is still off its rocker. Look at BITCOIN. I mean really 40K today.

IMO because the FED has made it impossible to invest in a safe way and has no problems tossing money at the problem. The market has become detached from reality. I find it difficult to understand how the market can only looks ahead (which makes sense) and guess that companies will will make X times more than they are today. Yes I know you can estimate, but in the real life environment that we are in, I have a hard time thinking that they can guess that for instance say Carnival Cruise who made a 2019 adjusted net income of $3.0 billion, or $4.0 adjusted EPS is going to make 3-4 times that this year even if the vaccine works to get them back to the 2019 level of earning mostly when there is only so many ships. Are they going to raise the price to make the estimate. Hmmm wouldn't that be inflation and cause the FED to start raising rates thereby defeating their whole plan. See https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-6#:~:text=Record%20total%20revenues%20for%20the,bi llion%20for%20the%20prior%20year.

I suppose they could start buying back their own stock so the available pool is small. True this is just an example and Carnival isn't back to its all time high but I would bet this hypothesis applies to many company's.

The smart ones were the buy and holders and unfortunately I wasn't one of them so maybe I am wrong in my assessment as well.

Hi Joblin20 and Mr. Snapps!
Great questions. While I monitor charts daily, it could be some time before it crashes. Fed has been feeding it for a long time and market throws a big tantrum anytime the Fed even slightly alludes to a change in policy. Time to refocus on those Fed meetings. But, I have a "feeling" Fed will do all it can to help new admin.

Plus, I am sure more spending is coming with the new administration ...even if we get eventually tax increases. For now, the market seems to love it!

How high can we fly before we crash? I should think the chickens will come to roost once the baby boomers start to meet their maker in greater numbers (over the next 10-15 years). But we may have some major pain before then...like when China stops buying our debt and gets more aggressive with us and becomes the largest economic power. Crossing fingers, but I do think change will be dramatic. Diversify. Buy gold and real property and digital currency from the big guys.

More short term, I don't think Fed will let us crash this year...then again, I don't think they can prevent a crash..gotta just keep an eye on market. I am now looking to see if new Congress changes Federal retirement terms that will affect me as I do want to retire in a couple years. Will they change how retirement is computed (maybe go to top 5 instead of top 3 earning years), increase minimum retirement age for Social Security and Federal retirement? eeeeeeee........

Best wishes!

Originally Posted by joblin20

At what point will the market decide to crash with feds having it's back?

Originally Posted by MrSnapps

Yesterday gain was nuts.

With S fund at 75.8003 much higher it can go before it drops?

Originally Posted by flalaw97

I have only been on this site for less than a year and I do not follow anything other than the TSP funds so for me, I don't feel like I need to figure out the broader picture or any individual stocks. I have learned what seems like a ton about following the DWCPF (S), SPX (C) and EFA(I) indices and the charts that BQuat and Coolhand post. Because TSP investors options are quite limited both in terms of funds and transactions, this actually makes it seem easier to me. As I watch the S fund jump over 2% today (with 15 minutes left in the trading day), I just continue to be amazed that in a single day in the market, my 401K can add those kinds of dollars. I came to this site after the March 2020 drop (which I luckily avoided most of) looking for ways to make sense of just these funds and I feel alot more confident now then I did when I first started. Unlikely I will ever be an expert but thanks to all of those on this site, I feel like at least my moves are based on a reasoned analysis, not just a headline. Good Luck!

Tread lightly. If you first really started paying attention this past spring, you can think you've got it all figured out. An ever-increasing market will do that.
Don't be discouraged if things ever head south, just reasses and adjust accordingly. And keep following bquat and coolhand!