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Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

  1. #2869

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Sure things will/may open up eventually. Probably why the markets continue to move higher. The hopes. I get it and I agree that is hopeful for getting the economy back and running. However what about the social distancing that will be done everywhere? Let's be hypothetical here and say most people will abide by the rules and do what they should be doing. The customers will not be coming out for a while. My opinion is people will continue to stay home for a while.

    Businesses will still lose profits. Every company from the local coffee shops to college campuses, from the Walmarts of the world to Ma and Pa hardware store, will be impacted by this, and have been. Money will continue to be lost, granted maybe not as bad as it would be if they stayed closed, but how long can some stay afloat? More layoffs, more companies going under. So you will have more online orders, think of Amazon, even your locals stores, grocery and otherwise that will take online orders. But not all businesses will be able to do this. Some businesses require foot traffic to make money. My friends own a coffee shop. Most likely they will lose money and eventually, if things don't revert back to more of the "norm", have to close. Some restaurants have carry out now through this. I imagine they might make a little more once they open but how is that going to work? We go to restaurants and have social distancing but when it comes time to eat or drink do you take your masks off? Dumb question right. Less staff required to keep open the restaurant. More layoffs.

    So what happens in the next few quarters? Yes numbers might get better economically. People will be working more and some people will get out and test the waters. Some will take trips, go to a sporting event or concert, or maybe even an amusement park. But what will the landscape look like for those events? How many people will be reasonable? Everyone still maintain social distancing? Will companies have a full staff or will they only have half their staff working because now instead of allowing 50,000 people they can only allow 5,000 people in their park or event. More job losses because that business needs less staff.

    I was on a conference call earlier today about our potential opening up. It is going to be a long process. I cannot even list everything they are going to be doing before they even begin to start letting staff back into their offices. Even then some people will be still teleworking for a while if not the rest of this year. This thing has definitely changed the landscape more than what some people think. It sounded like our people are trying to cover as much as possible to get staff back that need to be and a more "normal" work atmosphere. Conference rooms gone, they are turning them into potential offices due to spacing desks out more. They will be moving things around so you will have less people in office spaces. Shared spaces will be changed forever. I hope other businesses are thinking of all the things they need to do to re-open instead of just blindly opening their businesses.

    Market wise I'm still waiting on those pull backs. I missed out on these moves higher so been sitting in G.

    Best of luck to everyone and really do hope we all get back to some sort of normal soon but I'm skeptical of the future being as great as some may think. Between the potentials of the virus still kicking ass and the economy not as strong as people will think once we "reopen" I just think it's going to take a while for us to recover. I hope I'm wrong.

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  3. #2870

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    I don't either. I think the jobs numbers are not going to count for as much because people are probably thinking the "grand reopening" will negate the losses in the coming months. Read headline: MILLIONS OF NEW JOBS CREATED THIS MONTH

    I hope you are right but I wonder if this may end up being a change in the way companies etc do business. I wonder if some of the companies that are still open for business changes their model since they have been doing things differently for instance: is it possible that these companies could start pushing there stuff to the cloud or continue doing meetings online. If that were to happen in a greater scale than jobs would be lost or never come back. A company doesn't need a full IT service branch onsite in times like this if it is built into the contract they have with Amazon, Microsoft, Google etc to keep their service running. Additionally if those companies who have experimented holding their meetings on Zoom or whatever virtual meeting space they use, may decide to cut travel which affects the airlines, car rentals, hotels, and restaurants i.e job losses.

    I'm not saying it will but events like this bring about change just like 9/11 did. Some of the changes may spur jobs while some may not. I know things become more automated and if that is what happens jobs are sometimes lost. I hope things go back to normal as I have friends and family out of work now. Anyway just my 2 cents and something to think about.

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  5. #2871

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    You all made lots of great points! I kinda feel we have a mixed bag...I see lots of jobs coming back, lots of hope, some good feelings as new jobs numbers get reported and stores and restaurants and beauty salons start to open... ....but I do think we've been off the horse so long, we might be a bit slow to throw our leg up!

    Well.... at least some of the older folks! Not that I'm saying I'm old....feel pretty young actually. But Corona is a bad hombre and I am going to try to avoid him for quite some time. I suspect others might too! But the younger folks might be quicker at the draw. Hats off to them! I think I will just hang out at the Sabinal River this Summer....just close family. Will need to save the karaoke bars and Jello shots for the Fall!

    Best wishes to you all!

    PS. As for this Friday, I am thinking the numbers could be a downer... , but I've been wrong before...heck, market might be crazy and like it!
    .
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410


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  7. #2872

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Here are some end of day Daily charts. I am getting very excited because the Bollinger bands are contracting on most charts. Something BIG is gonna happen!
    It could be good or it could be bad, but either way...Hold On--could be in for a wild ride! Notice how they were also very constricted just before the big drop in February, but more so. So just watching now to see if it constricts more tightly. Also notice similar tightening in mid January, it dipped but reversed after a few days...and continued to constrict but then started to flare as prices went up and then Pow! The only warning, if you can call it that, was that the EMAs (3, 5, 13, 16) dropped below the mid-point of Bollinger Band=20-day SMA. Looks like we are close to that again... so caution warranted...though it may continue to constrict a bit longer.

    SPX now.png

    DWCPF -daily.png
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-06-2020 at 08:28 PM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  9. #2873

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-06-2020 at 08:37 PM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  11. #2874

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    P.S. Notice that in looking at the S fund and C fund charts (post #2872 ) charts have 2 Full Stochastics. First one has default setting, but second one has setting that smooths it out.. not as many whipsaws! YES, I did say Whipsaw!

    I do believe those are settings that the PivotPoint guy uses. So, I've got both for now as I study and compare them... I like the PP guy settings so far. Notice how the default might have led you to do a short buyin when market moved up near end of February only to continue down a few days later, or maybe to hold on longer in hopes of a true reversal. But, If Using the 2nd Stochastic, it was still below its signal line so you likely would have stayed out depending on how much reliance you placed on that momentum indicator. Of course, its best to use combination of trendlines, EMAs, support/resistance, candlestick/pattern reading, and momentum indicators IMHO.

    I myself rely most on EMA crossovers, Stochastics, and MACD. I am now waiting for Stochastic to drop to 20 or lower and wait to enter when/if both Stochastic and MACD rise at the same time with Stochastic rising above the 20. Its a beautiful thing when that happens!!! I would not say it's as good as sex, but it comes damn near close!!!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  13. #2875

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Thanks for the chart info DBA! This is very interesting to me. I'm still learning this stuff so I find it very helpful. It's hard to truly time markets but the tools are there to help guide us. I see what your saying about the BB20. I didn't at first but I see that little gray line lol. So when you say constrict more you basically mean they might come closer together on the chart more before we move one way or another in a big way? Now I'm just trying to understand the reference of the STO. I see the measurements at the bottom of each chart but are we waiting for them to start heading to the 20? So you are waiting for those to happen in conjunction with the MACD? The top chart looks like that MACD is already crossing over if I'm seeing that correctly. Is that right? So based on all this we could be breaking to the downside since the 9 looks to be crossing above the 12,26? I am not positive on this as I'm still learning. Sorry.

    Just appreciate the chart and information!

    PS> do you consider volume when making moves?
    Last edited by LTJPFED; 05-07-2020 at 07:25 AM.

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  15. #2876

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Hi LT,
    There are 3 dotted gray lines...upper, lower and middle. The middle one is equal to 20 day simple moving average (SMA). The 20 day MA ...either simple or exponential is often used by folks as an important indicator. For example, I always try to exit the market before and definitely no later than when the 20 MA drops below 50 MA as bad things tend to happen. But I have studies many MAs and prior years to see which such crossovers occur just before a big drop. And I decided that 20 crossing 50 downward does not occur before you have already suffered a big loss. So, I like to use the 3 EMA crossing below 5 EMA and 13 EMA crossing below 16 EMA, and just trying to exit when those cross below the BB mid-point.

    As for BB constricting, that usually occurs before big moves in market. But you can see that earlier this year around beginning of February it was most constricted. Then it started to bow out and price was rising nicely along the upper BB and then boom! The hammer came down ..so it was kind of a fake out...… but there were some telltale signals... prices started to pull away from the upper band (still going up), then all the EMAs I follow dropped below the BB mid-point..and the Stochastic and MACD dropped below 80....thereafter Really only had a couple days there to exit before the prices fell super hard.

    Now im waiting for price to drop enough to bring the Stochastic down to or below 20. Thereafter, I will wait to try finding the bottom before re-entry. That is hard...but I tend to watch for the Stochastic to rise and cross back upward above 20, and preferably see the MACD starting to slope upward as well. Hope that explanation helps.

    All of these are indicators, but anything can happen with market. Indicators don't predict the future market action. But I think They do give a sense of what could be getting ready to happen, but must use many other things...candlesticks, support and resistance areas, momentum indicators, sentiment, time of month when options are expiring, advance/declining options and yes...volume to see overall market strength of that day's price move. But I try to rely most on the EMAs, Stochastic and MACD. But, my problem is I get impatient...like last buy on last day of April while price had been above 80Stochastic for quite a long time....bad DBA!
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-07-2020 at 10:37 AM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  17. #2877

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Thanks for taking the time to respond! All of this can be confusing and intimidating when your trying to learn some new things but I appreciate the info! I'm looking at a couple key levels esp on S&P above that 2882.50 so we could move even higher from here. But you need to use all these other indicators to make a move. So based on that you would sit tight today even though we could move higher over the next few days. We are above 9k on NDQ too so things are pushing higher. Obviously it is where we end the day too. Do these numbers hold today, that is the question. I am still in G so I'm going to use some of these indicators to help me in making my decision when to move into C/S.

    I think I will be looking at the STO and MACD as well as the EMA's to help make a more informative decision.

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  19. #2878

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Hi LT, I wish you well... please do read the daily TSP commentary. Also, I really like to hear comments on this site by many folks... CoolHand puts out great analysis. I never miss his daily analysis. I also personally like The Ira Epstein videos that Nnuut posts daily.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  21. #2879

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Just an interesting little article I found about The Witch of Wallstreet!

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles...of-wall-street
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  23. #2880

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    This morning it was reported, on Varney (FBN) that the market drop was due to Fed Powell saying we could take longer to recover and that we might have negative interest rates later this year. Their take on this was that the market did not like negative interest rates happening LATER in year, instead of earlier. Still trying to wrap my head around that!!!

    Does anyone know the logic behind this??

    Does this just translate into more liquidity (obviously for banks who would be ripping off our savings held in banks by charging us interest while they use our money to make money off of us while also fulfilling their obligations or lending to others to make more money..double win for them )….but market is unhappy its not happening sooner?

    Uggghhhhh……. If I got that right, please let me know I can scream BINGO! I am Confused!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410


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