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Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

  1. #2725

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Hmm, and regarding DB, on a 5 year chart I can see (starting with the early 2017 top) that it's now completed 4 waves down, with the last 7 months or so being a 5-leg sideways triangle for wave 4...and over the last few days it's just started what could be a wave 5 down to the bottom, and potential bankruptcy. Will DB be the Lehman Brothers spark of 2020?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB...d=p77398391729
    Yes! DB is definitely scaring me! Based on those articles I posted last week and which Valkyrie brought up, I really do wonder if this is next HUGE bubble/explosion that will hit us when we least expect it. Those articles have me rattled. But typically when a drop happens, we get a little signal in the charts, but must be alert to it. I just plan to get out when 3 EMA crosses below 5 EMA, and/or MACD default crosses its signal line moving downward, or when Stochastic drops below 80 AFTER it has been above it for a time. Absolutely have decided to stay out of market when 20 SMA or EMA is below 50--- that is dangerous unless you want to get risky and put money in on a quick 2-3 day Dead Cat Bounce. My problem is that I psych myself into thinking its going to continue up.

    For now I see some downside indicated in the DWCPF chart (very clearly). Just not sure how long or how severe. I am fairly certain the C fund will follow, but again, market is so NEWS driven, you never know if Good news will change it all. Just can't foretell the future, but all indications are that the economy is strong and that folks are optimistic. Question is how optimistic??? And....Will buyers/investors step in next week when everyone gets back to work? I will likely exit the S fund Monday and probably C fund on Tuesday, but will see...… ughh… just need to not be too greedy!

    Best Wishes to You and Everyone!!!!!!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  2.  
  3. #2726

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by 1965Vintage View Post
    Merry Christmas DBA!
    Hi 1965! Merry Christmas to you too! Sorry for not replying sooner.... I been crazy busy! Just now starting to ease up and now its time to go back to work. I hope you have a Healthy, Prosperous and Happy New Year!!!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  4.  
  5. #2727

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Was looking at charts this evening! Here are the S and C Fund Daily charts. Still not sure if I will put any money into I fund this year.... gonna think about it now that it will be invested in Chinese companies. Not too thrilled about that.

    So I looked at Weekly charts first and see that all look fairly strong. DWCPF broke out above its highs of Aug 2018 for the past two weeks, and its hugging the upper Bollinger Band. Same thing for SPX except it broke out back in October and it hasn't looked back. It too is hugging the upper Bollinger Band.

    But, I then looked at the Daily Charts as of this past Friday, COB. The C Fund (SPX) definitely looks stronger than S Fund (DWCPF) because the MACD default is still sloped up very positively and not as close to crossing below its signal line on SPX as it is on DWCPF and DWCPF looks very close to having 3 EMA touch or cross below 6 EMA. But both charts are a bit concerning because the Stochastic is weakening as it dropped below its signal line on each chart (although its still above 80-good). MACD (default) continues upward but it is looking like it will be crossing below its signal line soon for both although S fund is closer to crossing. Price has also pulled away from the upper Bollinger Band (more visible on a 1-month daily chart). So, I am thinking maybe to start reducing exposure on Monday and Tuesday... will see . Right now the futures are positive, but of course all that can change by morning. I will just monitor and decide in the morning. AND of course, any GOOD news could change this news driven market. I would prefer to stay in until Friday as sometimes the start of the month is strong. If I exit in December, then will have to find a new point in January and market is so strong right now it might be hard to find an entry point. But, Other thing to keep in mind is that Congress comes back the following week and of course, no telling what political BS will scare the market, or encourage it! Also, hoping Deutsche Bank issues don't pop up anytime soon... uggh… its like a ticking time bomb along with other central bank issues.

    Best Wishes to you all on your Investments!!!!!

    DWCPF - 12-27-19.png

    SPX fund 12-27-19.png
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 12-30-2019 at 12:44 AM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410


  6.  
  7. #2728

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    It's kinda weird that market drops when news is that China deal, phase 1, could be signed later this week as top China rep coming to US to sign deal. So maybe folks just want to rebalance or close out some trades for tax purposes???? Also, its possible the Friday jobs report could be good....gosh..who knows.

    In any case, I will be exiting today as charts have hit some of my exit parameters. . I was thinking to just reduce exposure but I really do not want to follow market rest of this week. At this point, my current trade is still positive.

    Wishing every one of you the very best!!!! !!!

    PS. Executed IFT.... at 100% G fund now!

    Intraday charts as of a few mins ago.
    DWCPF - 12-30-19 intraday.png

    SPX fund intraday 12-30-19.png
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  8.  
  9. #2729

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Wishing you* all a very Happy, Safe, Healthy, Love-Filled and Prosperous NEW YEAR!!

    WOW.... 2020!!! The Start of the ROARING 20s.... Woo... Hooo!!!!!



    happy-new-year-2020.jpg

    Planning to pop lots of very BIG fireworks tonight!
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 12-31-2019 at 01:46 PM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  10.  
  11. #2730

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Hmm, and regarding DB, on a 5 year chart I can see (starting with the early 2017 top) that it's now completed 4 waves down, with the last 7 months or so being a 5-leg sideways triangle for wave 4...and over the last few days it's just started what could be a wave 5 down to the bottom, and potential bankruptcy. Will DB be the Lehman Brothers spark of 2020?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB...d=p77398391729
    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Yes! DB is definitely scaring me! Based on those articles I posted last week and which Valkyrie brought up, I really do wonder if this is next HUGE bubble/explosion that will hit us when we least expect it. Those articles have me rattled. But typically when a drop happens, we get a little signal in the charts, but must be alert to it. I just plan to get out when 3 EMA crosses below 5 EMA, and/or MACD default crosses its signal line moving downward, or when Stochastic drops below 80 AFTER it has been above it for a time. Absolutely have decided to stay out of market when 20 SMA or EMA is below 50--- that is dangerous unless you want to get risky and put money in on a quick 2-3 day Dead Cat Bounce. My problem is that I psych myself into thinking its going to continue up.

    For now I see some downside indicated in the DWCPF chart (very clearly). Just not sure how long or how severe. I am fairly certain the C fund will follow, but again, market is so NEWS driven, you never know if Good news will change it all. Just can't foretell the future, but all indications are that the economy is strong and that folks are optimistic. Question is how optimistic??? And....Will buyers/investors step in next week when everyone gets back to work? I will likely exit the S fund Monday and probably C fund on Tuesday, but will see...… ughh… just need to not be too greedy!

    Best Wishes to You and Everyone!!!!!!
    Tsunami, Thank You for the Link (below). Wow! I listened to the whole thing and took notes. I like to do that to really absorb it. Note: This is an interview with guy named Richard Duncan, Macro Watch, economist. Easy to understand and worked for World Bank and a consultant for IMF during Asian Crisis. Smart guy!

    It was great to listen to Mr. Duncan as he did a great job of explaining how Quantitative Easing and Tightening worked, Feds role, and then so much on the thing hat happened with Repos on 9/17/19 (rates jumped to 10% due to banks not wanting to loan other banks money on short-term/over night or two-wk cash needs) , and more importantly how the current "non-QE QE" is working out (as Fed is now buying Short term Treasuries as opposed to long term Treasuries). They are not calling it QE because instead of buying long term notes, Fed is buying Treasuries of 1-year or less to create debt given to banks/pumping liquidity into the economy.

    But still no answer on WHY banks did not step up to lend money for repo agreements/short term loans to other banks. Mr. Duncan says he still does not know why this occurred. He states when QE ended there was about $2.6T in reserves and that due to QE tightening and Fed buying back $750Bask during past year until that ended in May, this still left $2.4T in reserves so he wondered Bank did not step up on 9/17 to Lend money on short term repo agreements.

    He speculates that its possible the banks lost confidence (if you listen to it, this discussion starts at 18:14 minutes in) and that maybe 1 or more banks are in trouble and banks with liquidity to lend thought this could blow up (i.e. Deutsche Bank). He does make it clear that American banks do lend in a pool that includes international banks (short term overnight or two week "repo" loans) just to help them out with short term cash need. But that just makes me wonder why would FED need to pump in liquidity if the banks needing money are international. I don't think they would but who knows---I need to learn more about that.

    In any case, I should think Fed should only step in if our banks need help. Duncan states there was no shortage on 9/17/19, even though there were some reports about bank cash needs for corporate accounts that were paying out large quarterly tax payments. He also speculated that maybe banks with liquidity were afraid of crisis like what happened in 2008. He also mentioned possibility that banks wanted to embarrass the Fed as banks do not like the higher reserve requirements they now have (I believe that is under Frank-Dodd) which prevents them from lending their required reserve and thus can't make more money as the money must sit in their reserves. Hummm……. I tend to think it was issue with possible banks that could go belly up but which ones??? This just seems odd.

    In any case, Duncan's overall thesis is that we are no longer under Capitalism, but under "Creditism" since we are no longer under Gold Standard, Fed can print as much as the Govt needs to keep interest rates low to fund our debt., and mainly because credit growth now drives economic growth. He also states we/Govt should be considering a new "Modern monetary policy" to INVEST more money into infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, etc, into industries to spur new innovations to keep America's preeminence in the world. Humm……

    It is very interesting!!! Thanks again Tsunami!


    SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK WHERE IS SAYS "CLICK HERE"
    https://richardduncaneconomics.com/r...ded-interview/

    p.s. also lots of Blog links to the right on that page
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 12-31-2019 at 04:19 PM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  12.  
  13. #2731

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    Default DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    The problem with 9/17/2019, and ever since, is that banks don’t have the cash, because somebody has placed put options, and bought up all the banks’ bond holdings, betting that the market is going to crash.

    The Congress (and Trump Admin) just reduced the cash reserve requirements of Dodd-Frank, AND loosened the Volker Rule about banks using on-hand cash to play in the stock market.

    So- in summary- most of the safety-valves we put in place after the 2008 crash ARE NOW SOFTENED or Completely gone; and
    the banks don’t have surplus cash to loan each other in an emergency; and
    Somebody (s) have placed huge bets that the markets are going to collapse; and

    The FED has been quietly flooding the banks with cash, but insisting that nobody call it a QE3,(or 4, or 5, or whatever we are up to) ; and

    The only thing keeping markets rising is that Fed QE cash flooding the market; and lowing interest rates again, even though they barely got them back up to half the normal rates level (about 2.5%) and

    And at SOME POINT they (the FED) needs to STOP lowering rates, to save SOMETHING in case an emergency hits....


    So I am a really , really thinking that by spring, either the economy HAS to start significant growth, or else the whole thing is going to come crashing down . Hard.


    But then again, I’ve always been optimistic.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  14.  
  15. #2732

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    Default DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Volker Rule repeal:


    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...-banks-1672620

    Dodd-Frank repeal:

    https://wjla.com/news/nation-world/t...d-frank-repeal

    And: FED injects $49 Billion into banks to ease overnight lending on Monday and Tuesday of this week!

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/12/30/...po-market.html

    Hang on tight- tomorrow is another decade already! Welcome to the roaring 20’s!!


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  16.  
  17. #2733

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Welp… the only good thing from market standpoint is that "assets" will be inflating until the new QE stops. So good time to be in the market as it goes up, up, up …. more of what the Fed did under Obama administration---they will be artificially pumping up the banks, which will cause assets to inflate artificially..... Folks will need to keep an eye on investments in the market....don't want to be in market when something blows. Eeeeeekkkk…...

    The bad thing is that market can drop really fast whenever the Fed or one of its chairs even SLIGHTLY whispers that the end of this new QE is going to decrease, slow or end.... Fed speak and/or leaked information on central bank health will be causing volatility.

    Thanks for posting the articles. Starting to read them now. If those safeguards requiring banks to keep higher liquid funds in reserve are no longer in place (not sure how that happens without Congress passing a new law or modification), then is it possible that we could have a repeat of 2008???? I don't know. Update: Just read the second article, and Congress passed a bill (both Democrat run house, and Republican run Senate) that Trump signed. So this was Bi-Partisan change on Dodd-Frank. The third article is Really Good!

    Yes---they do NOT want to call this Quantitative Easing---because Gov is buying Short Term (up to 1 year maturity Govt bonds), whereas under QE (of the past) involved buying long term Govt Bonds. I don't know what difference that makes. Its still pumping money in to banks. I think Fed just doesn't want to admit that they went too far last year with interest rate increases and caused that major drop in Oct-Dec 2018 (caused lots of folks to lose lots of money). So reversing course and not calling it QE is a face saving attempt. Hum.
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 01-01-2020 at 08:29 PM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  18.  
  19. #2734

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Thank You James! Great Information and it definitely makes sense. Will see what happens... will need to stay nimble!
    If you happen to have any links about placed put options and buy ups of bank bond holdings, I would love to read them if you don't mind posting the links... Thanks again!
    It does appear (from other articles you provided) that bi-partisan changes have been made to reserve and bank's investment rules that could cause problems for the industry and us taxpayers if Congress tries to bail them out again (like 2008). But so far the loosening of investment rules looks to only affect short term (less than 60 day) rules, so I am hopeful that the same issues as 2008 would not arise. Does it sound like banks are again investing in high risk investments??? Hummm….

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    The problem with 9/17/2019, and ever since, is that banks don’t have the cash, because somebody has placed put options, and bought up all the banks’ bond holdings, betting that the market is going to crash.

    The Congress (and Trump Admin) just reduced the cash reserve requirements of Dodd-Frank, AND loosened the Volker Rule about banks using on-hand cash to play in the stock market.

    So- in summary- most of the safety-valves we put in place after the 2008 crash ARE NOW SOFTENED or Completely gone; and
    the banks don’t have surplus cash to loan each other in an emergency; and
    Somebody (s) have placed huge bets that the markets are going to collapse; and

    The FED has been quietly flooding the banks with cash, but insisting that nobody call it a QE3,(or 4, or 5, or whatever we are up to) ; and

    The only thing keeping markets rising is that Fed QE cash flooding the market; and lowing interest rates again, even though they barely got them back up to half the normal rates level (about 2.5%) and

    And at SOME POINT they (the FED) needs to STOP lowering rates, to save SOMETHING in case an emergency hits....


    So I am a really , really thinking that by spring, either the economy HAS to start significant growth, or else the whole thing is going to come crashing down . Hard.


    But then again, I’ve always been optimistic.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  20.  
  21. #2735

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    I will see if I can dig up the article from a couple of weeks ago that I saw talking about the Bonds being gobbled up in order to create put orders placed recently.

    I don't see it right now.

    This is the closest thing I can find which explains it-
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/431...ort-long-bonds

    But that article doesn't talk about the put options. It DOES explain what is happening to bonds being bought up right now- and why people would put "put" options in them, as a hedge in case the market crashes.

  22.  
  23. #2736

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Ah- here is another article that is helpful:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sh...nes-2019-12-23


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