Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Just looked at "I" fund (EFA) and see how its dropped quite a bit. Last week, I heard on Bartiromo's Wallstreet Week, that Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank ) had indicated they would be dropping interest . The guest said they (in Europe) already have negative interest rates and could not see how they could continue to drop rates and stated this would continue to devalue/weaken the Euro and strengthen the Dollar. The guest was indicating that the US should move to cut rates to keep the Dollar in line with Europe and rest of the world. hummmm….


So I looked around and found this article as ECB kept the rates steady ( no drop).
But its an Interesting article!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/26/euro...-in-focus.html

"I" Fund (EFA) - Daily
EFA - I fund Daily 7-30-19.png

It's interesting that the EFA is down so sharply, yet the headline in that article says, "European stocks close higher."

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Just looked at "I" fund (EFA) and see how its dropped quite a bit. Last week, I heard on Bartiromo's Wallstreet Week, that Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank ) had indicated they would be dropping interest . The guest said they (in Europe) already have negative interest rates and could not see how they could continue to drop rates and stated this would continue to devalue/weaken the Euro and strengthen the Dollar. The guest was indicating that the US should move to cut rates to keep the Dollar in line with Europe and rest of the world. hummmm….


So I looked around and found this article as ECB kept the rates steady ( no drop).
But its an Interesting article!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/26/euro...-in-focus.html

"I" Fund (EFA) - Daily
EFA - I fund Daily 7-30-19.png

This becomes even more pertinent when you factor in our rate cut to increase inflation to the 2ish % mark so it acts as a market stabilizer. Markets had a knee jerk reaction to the fed statement yesterday...not sure what caused so many to forecast multiple rate cuts this year. They have to see what the cut does to inflation indexes 3-6 months down the road before they map out their next moves. Strong dollar with ECB cuts, inflation and bond indexes, etc makes this a very fluid situation the fed needs to use the baby mitts with.

Hi Mcqlives, One would think so. But FBN commentators were also indicating that as Europe cuts rates , this makes for an unfair playing field for the USA because the dollar strengthens and so that would tend to make it not as great to buy from the US. Just as a side note: A couple weeks back on Bartiromo's Wallstreet Week, BlackRock CEO even indicated ECB may start to buy equities!!!---that somehow seems desperate, but I guess that would work for them.

So to keep the playing field even, we would need to continue cutting rates...or so some believe. I think the market was also reacting to Powell stating that to justify cutting a quarter percent, they were considering the continuing global market weakness (Europe and others) and effects of trade issues, along with their not meeting the 2% inflation goal and manufacturing figures going down. Aside from just this quarter/month, I did not think our manufacturing was going down that much... and that argument was not very convincing because you would think that one would wait to see more on that before using it for decision making.

Powell had a hard time explaining why they had waited 7 months to cut rates (after their screw up back in September and December) and what basis they were using now to think that a 1/4% cut would affect anything at this point. I don't think it does. So, I kinda see why the market reacted as it did. Now to see what happens next over the next couple days. The economy does look to be strong, but we shall see what the market thinks.....I am still not sure if I should be in or out of equities. I will stay out a bit longer.

Best wishes to you and everyone* on your Investments!!!!!!!!

Gosh... futures are down 526 pts on Dow mini right now. Eeeeeeekkkkk … Hope that negative reduces overnight.

https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

So its up today a bit after yesterday's bloodbath. I wanted to jump in but just couldn't do it. Predicting the future is hard! lol.....
But... based on the charts alone, looks like yesterday was the next little leg down. Over at Whipsaw's thread, I mentioned that if we broke through the 200 EMA (which we did yesterday), I thought we might go down to 2810 and then possibly to 2750 as the next support areas. So, I am still thinking we hit 2810, then a bounce up and then j2750.

I do like that Trump said some tariffs would not go into effect in September, which will help us for the Holiday buying season. But per FBN, this morning, there are still 40% of items that will be subject to tariffs with China on 9/1 and doesn't sound like the Chinese want to change their laws to ensure Intellectual property is not required to be given up by our companies doing business in China. So, are we definitely NOT out of the woods...so I think this will continue to be a slow downward slide until a deal is worked out. But I am not very confident about that. They are a Communist country and it looks like their leadership is not going to change!!! Just look at Hong Kong! Plus they are probably going to wait it out to see what happens with our American elections next year. I expect more pain. Just not sure how much because our economy is good. Everyone is talking about recession, but consumer spending is strong and so I think... not so fast folks. I plan to buy in... just deciding when ... likely next week...me thinks!! hum... where is that bottom?

Also, since it is all so very volatility, thinking it might be best to use a downtrend strategy and just buy in on a possible dead cat bounce for a day or two and exit. Just not sure the market is ready to do an extended take off.

Best Wishes to You All* !!!!!!!!!

SPX fund 8-15-2019.png

Here are a few charts ---I wanted to get into equities earlier this week, but my strategy signals had not all hit. Probably should have pulled the trigger, but like Ira Epstein mentioned, market is waiting for news from Powell Friday morning (think he speaks at 9AM CT). Looking at charts, all signals have now hit for entry as of today. Feels like I have been in the F fund forever and it has now dropped out of overbought area.... Will see about making a move in the morning. I'm not very motivated to enter equities only because the weekly charts don't look that great, but my strategy signals on the daily charts have now hit. Hummmm…. we shall see the Fed chair has to say...hoping its all good! ... futures are up 70 pts on the Dow mini right now.

BUT...If its not good news from the Fed tomorrow morning, I will likely look at the icky weekly charts and stay out of equities.

In any case, I will likely exit the F fund as the daily doesn't look too good. I am happy with the 1.51% gained so far this month.


Wishing you all the best in your Investments!!!!!!!

S Fund
DWCPF FUND 8-23-2019.png

C Fund
SPX fund 8-23-2019.png

F Fund
AGG fund 8-23-2019.png

Well... this market action makes for an easy decision. Equities lost their gains for the week... so far. Its not over until its over! In any case, no move today for me and F fund is doing good, so I am staying put. But Trump is going to comment this afternoon. No telling what that will be or how it will affect market. Flip a coin! He might want to make it better, or he might be ticked. I know I would be after hearing the news from China this morning... early enough for Powell to hear it too. Hum.... so it continues..."As the World Turns"... .. just wish it did not involve my retirement money..

C fund
SPX fund 8-24-2019.png

F fund
AGG fund 8-24-2019.png

Oh.. Oh.… Trump just said US companies should start looking to do business elsewhere and that we would be far better off without China. Market dropping, but I can't say I disagree. US businesses have not been too smart in giving away their Intellectual Property (for Short term gains---greed). Hope they learned that lesson! ...and stop enriching the Communists! Go play with friends please!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Oh.. Oh.… Trump just said US companies should start looking to do business elsewhere and that we would be far better off without China. Market dropping, but I can't say I disagree. US businesses have not been too smart in giving away their Intellectual Property (for Short term gains---greed). Hope they learned that lesson! ...and stop enriching the Communists! Go play with friends please!

It's all about the money, stock holders and profit. It's cheaper to make it overseas and there are no unions. MONEY, MONEY, MONEY

Good call Annie and so true Nasa!!


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