Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Mcglives, I like your logic and reasoning. Based on outcomes presented, potential 75% chance of market recovery. I don't think Trump wants to see the Mr. Market in the dumps, as he touts market highs quite often, and the benefit to folks 401Ks. Whether to deploy my other 50% now...?

I think China may be doubling down. I don’t think trump will go to 10% tariffs like they want. Falling knife scenario. No move for me.

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

Rspring, Fogsailing and DBA,

Now I'm thinking of getting back in...but only because Trump views deal making as a game/form of art. I just don't know if I feel strongly enough about this to act on it. Anyway, here is my thoughts about what has happened/may happen...

China and US have a spoken deal to move forward; China tries doing an 11th hour slick move (like DBA referenced); Trump et al catches slick move and calls it for the BS it is; China bluffs on stopping the talks and Trump calls their bluff and says fine, tariffs taking effect Friday; now China says deal still possible and will continue talks today.
Now we get to the may happen part...and keep in mind these negotiations have been occurring for many months. No particular order...
1) China blinks and requests the tariffs be delayed while negotiations continue ( = Market up).
2) Trump blinks and requests the tariffs be delayed while negotiations continue ( = Market up).
3) Deal is reached ( = markets up huge).
4) Everyone stands pat and tariffs take effect ( = markets down, possibly big time).

So is this an "Art of the Deal" moment? I'm trying, and failing, to see what election considerations may be taken into account. Any ideas anyone? Trying to think like trump hurts my head!

I agree with you on the possible directions laid out. I seriously doubt Trump will play politics here so I do believe tariffs are a real possibility. He will try to win the battle and bend and negotiate to extent possible but the trade agreement will need to be good for the USA. How good is the question. I doubt he will bend to allow an trade agreement that does not have some measure of enforcement in it.

Otherwise, why bother having an agreement at all. No agreement is better than a bad/non-enforceable trade agreement that continues to allow China to cheat! This would not be good for the USA. He is not going to let that continue. No automatic stamp of approval for his political benefit. Just my two cents. I hope the Chinese stop playing around---dirty AHs!

PS... and quite honestly they need to be put in their place. USA has been overly generous for decades and it has gotten us nothing but an imbalance in trade and we are enriching Communist China! Talk about dumb! Yes... let's keep putting OUR money into their pockets so they can eventually get us. yes, I realize the tariff will increase our prices for Chinese-made goods, but that is the whole point. Stop buying Chinese!! We need to support OUR team -- the good ole USA!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

I realize the tariff will increase our prices for Chinese-made goods, but that is the whole point. Stop buying Chinese!! We need to support OUR team -- the good ole USA!

DB, The question is why are all these products being made in China or just overseas in general? The problem with supporting OUR team is that it isn't made here anymore and if it is it is too expensive and who's fault is that? It's a much bigger problem then increasing the tariff's on product shipped from China.

Yep... But it is NEVER good to support a communist country. Not ever! May as well just hand them the gun and let them walk you peacefully into the woods without a fight!

You get what you pay for! In my family, I pay my son and nephews premium prices when they do things for me. You pay more to help your family instead of strangers. Loyalty to your family is very important. The USA is my family!

Also, our family being self-sufficient is important. We should not rely on the rest of the World for anything. Doing so is dangerous to our survival.

Also ..Tariffs are a tool or weapon if you are strong enough to wield it, and sometimes you must use your leverage to get where you need to get....just like you must take advantage of being the chip bully at the poker table! .

When I first watched this video, it blew me away! How Big is the Universe???? Gosh... we are so tiny !!!! Just seems unbelievable..... is this true?? hummmm……

well light can bend/change direction. so they really don't know how far other stars are away from the earth. they are just guessing about all it. but it does bring in the grant/research money.

LOL....yes I bet it does!!

Hey....maybe I should be a gubmint-funded research scientist when I grow up!!!
I am a good writer... could probably write up a good proposal. I could try recycling some old studies.

When I was a child, I would sit out on the concrete side walk in the hot Texas sun during Summer and study the ants. Back then we had no phones, ipads, constant cartoons on TV to keep us preoccupied and apparently all my "smart" friends were inside shielding themselves from the brutal sun.

Sometimes I would encircle a wandering ant by swirling a little line of water around him. I came prepared with my big glass of water. I would draw the circle large and observe how the ant would test each part of it looking for a way out. Of course after a few minutes the water would evaporate so I would need to draw it again or just do it every now and then to keep the water line solid. He would calmly test each site.

But then I would start to draw the circle smaller and smaller and the ant would start to get frantic as it moved faster testing for an exit. This is not Chinese water torcher but I guess you could consider it DBA ant-torcher. In any case, I could make my research aim at finding out why he was freaking out, or whether his brain was big enough to realize his options were shrinking and thereby causing fear, or maybe his brain was too small to realize the water was not deep enough to drown him, or maybe he just was so small that the little water line too high---above his field of sight so he could not see the solid land beyond it!

Then again, I think maybe I have spent too much of my time wondering about small things!!!! lol.... huh....maybe that is what is wrong with me!!!! I think I may have solved all my lifelong issues! I'm glad we had this talk!!!!

Valkyrie, I am back to the main topic. Yes...agree light can bend and thus change direction so you answer is most logical.... we just don't know how big the universe is. I do like the video and all those pretty pictures!

Originally Posted by Valkyrie

well light can bend/change direction. so they really don't know how far other stars are away from the earth. they are just guessing about all it. but it does bring in the grant/research money.

interesting read with a lot of math.
How Big is the Universe?

Interesting article....China's Nuclear Option: Selling U.S. Treasury Bonds. … But reportedly not a likely option as it would hurt China more.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/chin...ury-bonds.html

Per the article, this would cause yields to increase and China's portfolio value to drop and then China would not have advantage of US high yields at low risk.

But if this causes their portfolio to drop in value, seems they are saying US bond values would drop. Humm…..is this correct? Would that effect G fund value. I've never seen anything affect it.