Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

I wish I had reduced exposure another 25%. But will see about doing it tomorrow. The 2734ish number for C Fund stuck it out for the day. ..ended a tiny tad higher, and same for S Fund. I would like to be 50% invested moving into December, but will see how things look. My thought is to exit as soon as Stochastic touches 80, but will see how other indicators look before exiting. Still using bear strategy (quick in and out and reducing exposure ) and I am not anticipating a long upswing, but we shall see...I still think prices will drop again before Santa truly arrives later in month!

Best Wishes and Good Night!!!!!!

C Fund 3 mos 11-29-18.png

S Fund 3 mos.png

One thing I really like is that the Mid-point line on Bollinger Bands for both C and S fund charts are just starting to slope up. That is very positive.

Decision made to reduce exposure to 50% C fund with rest in G fund.

Hoping for a neutral to up day. So doing this means I meet my goal of only being invested 50% going into December. While I think we will get some positive news out of the G20, I prefer to not count on it. The MACD (5,9,2) is headed upward but I can also see that the momentum is slowing (see MACD histogram bars). That is the same for both S and C fund. Obviously this does not predict the future, but we getting closer to being over bought (reaching 80 on Stochastic). I wanted to reduce exposure yesterday only because I thought many would want to book some gains today and that could still occur as a fade towards end of day, but I just want to keep myself in a position to not be fully invested until we clearly are out of the downtrend. The mid-point on Bollinger bands is a great confidence builder and indicates to me that this could be the case. Will see...


Best Wishes to you on Your Investments and Wishing you all a GREAT Weekend!!!!!!!!

DBA,

Who knows what DJT will do, say or tweet with Navarro and XI at the dinner table tomorrow night. I'm cautiously optimistic though.

HAGWE

Hotwings, Looks like Trump and Xi came through. But I am a bit surprised that the rally is not greater. It was over +400 on DOW this morning and now it is faded quite a bit down to a positive +218. I am thinking to exit today. Problem is I would like to just reduce exposure further from 50% to 25% in equities but that would waste an IFT … with only 2 IFTs for the month. I am thinking one to fully exit and then 1 to enter just before the Santa Rally which typically comes later in the month.

Here are the charts right now. We have gapped up. We are getting close to overhead resistance. My goal of staying in until we reached oversold 80 on Stochastic has been met. Of course it doesn't mean it can't go higher, but now looking at MACD (5,9,2) and do see a little weakness coming for S fund. C fund seems okay right now. I may let it ride one more day as I am only in the C fund …. Will see..

Best Wishes to you and Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!


C Fund 3 mos 12-3-18.png

S Fund 3 mos.png 12-3-18.png

Hope to not regret it.... gonna stay in one more day. ugghhh… maybe getting a bit greedy.

Oh man, DBA....Why you do this to me?!?!?! I was just going to say that I'm bailing to G and you post this???

Talk about a mind %^#

I'm staying in at least until the later part of this week but you may want to check out Helene Meisler's article on Real Money Nov 23.
Comparing Market Swoons, and Not a Moment Too Soon. We take a closer look at whether the current market decline bears similarity to the drop of a few years ago.


https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inve...-soon-14789680

She did a nice analysis with thoughts that the breakdown that bottomed in October 2014 and was followed after ten months by the double swoon in 2015 may me more similar to our two breakdowns in January and October of 2018. So we may go straight up here at least for a while but don't forget oil prices kept dropping and the double bottom in 2015 was followed by another double bottom in the beginning of 2016 before things finally rose again.

Best Wishes.
S&P 2014 2106.jpg

I'm not liking this enough to take the risk. Maybe I would ride for a day if I had less in the markets right now but not with 100% in. Making my first move of month to G. I may end up buying higher but risk/reward isn't good enough for me to take the chance.

If you want to know my reasons why...read Tom's commentary. He summarizes my thoughts much better than I could put it to paper. Only thing I am doing is interpreting his comments and letting the fear of the unknown outweigh my innate greed.

Originally Posted by pmaloney

I'm staying in at least until the later part of this week but you may want to check out Helene Meisler's article on Real Money Nov 23.
Comparing Market Swoons, and Not a Moment Too Soon. We take a closer look at whether the current market decline bears similarity to the drop of a few years ago.


https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inve...-soon-14789680

She did a nice analysis with thoughts that the breakdown that bottomed in October 2014 and was followed after ten months by the double swoon in 2015 may me more similar to our two breakdowns in January and October of 2018. So we may go straight up here at least for a while but don't forget oil prices kept dropping and the double bottom in 2015 was followed by another double bottom in the beginning of 2016 before things finally rose again.

I missed that one. Thanks! It is a nice summary. I did consider staying in after reading this but with the markets/TSP (assuming so) being closed on Wednesday I would be in a more convoluted lack of decision state tomorrow. Taking my profit and running.

I don't blame you for wanting to exit if 100% invested right now... I am only risking at 50%. Took my profits last week with two 25% exits on different days.
I am looking to exit tomorrow. Markets are still pretty much around +173-220 on DOW. Wednesday the market will be closed in honor of former President Bush Sr (#41). So tomorrow is my target exit day. Will see how market looks in the morning...but its getting close to exit time.


So there was also fear of Govt shut down at end of week, but I understand Congress is going to vote on Thur/Fri to pass a 1 week continuation (??) until the following Friday due to the State funeral for President Bush on Wednesday this week.

Hoping that with a buy in later in the month for Santa, I will finally break into positive territory for the year.... geez!!!!

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

I'm not liking this enough to take the risk. Maybe I would ride for a day if I had less in the markets right now but not with 100% in. Making my first move of month to G. I may end up buying higher but risk/reward isn't good enough for me to take the chance.

If you want to know my reasons why...read Tom's commentary. He summarizes my thoughts much better than I could put it to paper. Only thing I am doing is interpreting his comments and letting the fear of the unknown outweigh my innate greed.