Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Hello, The Ira Epstein morning flash was very informative this morning.... about coming events this week ...market movers. Comments on China interesting...also, he did not mention, but we do have big earnings reports from Facebook Tuesday after the close, and Apple on Thursday. after the close.
Nnuut --thank you for those posts!!


Best Wishes to Everyone!!! DBAnnie
PS. Yes.. still "planning" to stay out of market until after election. Will see.....

Originally Posted by nnuut

Good Morning!! To enter or not to enter? That is the main question this morning.

I looked at charts last night. Obviously looks like a little rally. I noticed its a sharp rise. In fact everything has been sharp .... sharply down twice in October with a sharp rise towards the end and volatility magnified. So, while the charts say I should enter.... actually they said that about 2 days ago, but had no IFT..... I keep wondering:
--What will happen tomorrow since Apple reports after close today?
--Will something else be said about China tariffs (that is not sounding too promising)before I get in and out?
--Will GOP lose the house and senate?
--When will the Italian budget raise its ugly head to spook Europe? (no pun intended.... ).
--Should I just enter and try to stay "short-term long" (LOL...) because it could be the worse is over (for a couple weeks )?

Then a light bulb came on!!!!!

What does that whacky little chart I posted on page 185 say? It has been scary accurate... so to speak. So here it is. I think I will look at it, look at charts again for the millionth time and continue to chew on a hard piece of jerky!!!

Enjoy! ...and best wishes to you all!!!!!!!!

P.S. So far I read this whacky "average trading pattern" chart to mean get in after election and get out 4 days before month's end. Then re-enter about 1 week into December and get out a few days before end of December. Anyone else see that??? just wonderin….. hum... I think I will stick to my original thought... get in after election but only if our real time charts and current strategy say yes. But getting in today is very enticing..... don't be greedy DBA. Stick to the plan.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

This article was posted in a TSP Newsfeed yesterday. Link to article on Market Watch by Sue Chang. But what I found interesting was the last chart in that article, "Average Trading Pattern After A Hgh Made In Augustfor S&P 500... inserted below. Not sure how much weight I will give it, but it indicates when August provides good returns, September tends to follow suit early to mid-month before it drops towards end...while October then provides the larger weakness... hummm…….

I am trading based on current strategy and technical indicators... but the chart is interesting!
Good evening and Best Wishes to you all!!!!!!!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ke...of2&yptr=yahoo

Attachment 43524

That chart is crazy accurate. Considering it got made around September 5th (or even earlier?!?!) it is down right astonishing!

I know.... its crazy right???

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

That chart is crazy accurate. Considering it got made around September 5th (or even earlier?!?!) it is down right astonishing!

DBA, RSOTC is posing the possibility that this bounce will be sold by folks caught in the first leg down, and end in lower lows... as his most likely scenario. I may bail today...

Rethinking an entry.... maybe go in 50%??? Sheeeezzzzzzz...40 minutes...… uggh. Indicators look good but we are already 3 days into this rise.

Thanks Whipsaw!! That definitely makes sense. I am going to stick to original plan--enter after election. Or wait until just around election day if there is a drop. If market drops day before election, I may enter then.. will see.... sticky feet on the Lilly pad!

Also, something to consider.... what about Apple earnings after COB today... if good, then market may go up some tomorrow... but what if it also comes out with estimate on revenues for future based on China tariffs... then maybe it goes down.... I really do not know... just thinking out loud.

But I think your exit today is definitely something to consider. Sometimes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush! Best wishes to you and CONGRATS to you on earnings these past few days!!!! That is quite goooood!!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

DBA, RSOTC is posing the possibility that this bounce will be sold by folks caught in the first leg down, and end in lower lows... as his most likely scenario. I may bail today...

I just went all in C Fund COB today. Thought long and hard. Not gonna bet against Apple. My gut says they beat this afternoon and take the market up. Also placing a bet that the Republicans have a big win next week and don't want to be out of this market when that happens.

But I am nervous!

That is good logic. I tend to not want to go against that either. So I am going to stay open to buy day before or on day of election.

Seems that many believe House will flip and that will have a neutral effect on market because it will continue grid lock and not much will change. I tend to think it would go down--but that is just me.

If GOP gets both houses, I think it goes up a lot and Ira Epstein also thinks that. Why? A continuation of what we have had for two years to bring confidence to business and markets, plus tax cuts 2.0.

If they lose both houses, I tend to think market goes down because tax increases would be up the road and ramped up gridlock.

Originally Posted by 1965Vintage

I just went all in C Fund COB today. Thought long and hard. Not gonna bet against Apple. My gut says they beat this afternoon and take the market up. Also placing a bet that the Republicans have a big win next week and don't want to be out of this market when that happens.

But I am nervous!

OH yes Whipsaw! I did congratulate you earlier, but I forgot to compliment you on your great doodahs!

Originally Posted by 1965Vintage

I just went all in C Fund COB today. Thought long and hard. Not gonna bet against Apple. My gut says they beat this afternoon and take the market up. Also placing a bet that the Republicans have a big win next week and don't want to be out of this market when that happens.

But I am nervous!

If I was still working and dollar cost averaging I would be all over that for the same reasons