Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

okay...I guess it didn't keep link alive... back to the drawing board....

Here is link to good article from Right Side of the Chart on Successfully Navigating a Bear Market....interesting !

https://rightsideofthechart.com/how-...t-bear-market/

Best Wishes to you all !!!!!!!

Yes... it sure is ugly... I thought we were going to have a nice day in the market... well... at least positive when it started up this morning. Like I said before, it does look like we are going to test the Feb lows. Not too far from it now on the S Fund, but C fund has a ways to go....

Oh and I fund just continues to spiral. But then again, it did hit the Death cross back in July.

Not sure how long it will take to run its course. Humm….. 5 more business days until many of us get replenished IFTs. Still..... I will use Bear Market Strategy... not that we are in a Bear market yet, but it sure is grumpy... then again.... kinda scary...


Best Wishes to you all!!!!!!

I'm a newbie so sorry in advance if these questions are obvious.

DBA, I see you're 100% in the G fund. Just curious why you didn't put some in the F fund? Do you expect that to drop a lot in the next few weeks?

Also, I thought there were only 2 interfund transfers per month before having to go into the G fund, yet your signature tag line shows 4 in September, the 4th going 100% G. I assumed that the 3rd ITF in a calendar month had to go 100% into G, but I guess that's incorrect?

Hi Nat,

Sept 10 I entered market, Sept 19 I reallocated and then the next 2 IFTs in September I just gradually started to decrease my equities and going into G Fund.
After you have used your 2 IFTs in a month, you can move as many times as you want to reduce exposure to the market by moving into the G fund. (freebie IFTs).
So you can do it bit by bit. I really do not like doing that, but I do it sometimes because I am afraid of picking a bad day to get out... since we must place our order by Noon ET, there are 4 hours left of trading and a lot can happen during those hours to drop the market unexpectedly. This has happened to many folks.. and it really stinks.

As for the F fund, it was in a serious downtrend earlier this year. It had a Death cross down (50 MA dropped below 200 MA) back February and then started to rise back up in mid-Julne to mid-Aug to cross back above it but then started dropping again and now seems close to having another Death Cross... plus, I just really have never had much luck with the F fund. So that is why I went to G instead of F. Many say the F fund leads the equities in direction, and I always thought it was suppose to gain when equities are losing but that is not always the case. I also don't see a pattern of behavior, not that any do, but I feel uneasy with it and so I tend to stay away from it.

Originally Posted by NatInPW

I'm a newbie so sorry in advance if these questions are obvious.

DBA, I see you're 100% in the G fund. Just curious why you didn't put some in the F fund? Do you expect that to drop a lot in the next few weeks?

Also, I thought there were only 2 interfund transfers per month before having to go into the G fund, yet your signature tag line shows 4 in September, the 4th going 100% G. I assumed that the 3rd ITF in a calendar month had to go 100% into G, but I guess that's incorrect?

Here is a 4-month Daily AGG (F fund) chart. As for your question about whether it will go up a few weeks? I do not know. No one can be certain what the market will do.
But looking at the chart I see that the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA - on this chart is a red line) is hitting the 100 SMA (brown line) to cross below it. That is not a great sign at all. While it is moving up (Stochastic sloped up rising from 20) that might be a good short play … a few days for it to get to 80...BUT also notice price action is hitting the mid-point (dotted line) on the Bollinger band... that is the 20 SMA and that looks like it might be a resistance point for moving up further plus price is now also at the October high of a week or so ago and that looks like a resistance point as well. IF it can move higher past that, then maybe you get a nice little rise there for a bit longer. The MACDs have rising slope and above 20 so that looks good ... again maybe a few days up. But today's candle looks like it is forming a wick on top of the body of candle and that indicates that folks were buying at a price higher than the opening price and that is formed the wick intraday, but other folks stopped buying at those higher prices and so asking prices has come back down below the opening price...that is a bit bearish---bears beating the bulls today so far as day is not over. But no crystal ball on this. Might check and see how it does tomorrow morning... see how the day finishes or just jump in a bit and close your eyes!!! lol …… but I would not do that.... seriously... but that is just me.

Best wishes to you!!!!!

Attachment 43665

No jumping here! Can't see into the water to check for rocks....

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

No jumping here! Can't see into the water to check for rocks....

DA,

Curious of what resources you use to conduct your analysis on the market? I've lose a significant amount staying in S Fund since beginning of October and now jumped ship into G to stop the bleeding. So many determining factors to deal with right now, I think I'll stay G until midterms are announced. Thanks for your support.

Hi Catak, Sorry to hear about your loss. I am still trying to dig out of a hole I fell into in Spring so I feel your pain. That primarily happened because I kept "hoping" market would go up and was ignoring the charts (doubting myself) and I let fear and emotion rule my judgement....not too smart! All I can say is jump back in as soon as you think a bottom is in. that is the tricky part. I do not plan to get in until after the elections, but if I see charts starting to look like they have bottomed I may get in earlier. Just depends. I am also now sticking to my strategy and trusting my reading of charts.

I use the 4-month daily charts that I have posted (permalinks that update constantly) at page 185, post 2217 & 2218. I think you can copy the links. If you get a chance, see the chart at post 2216--it is scary accurate!!

The DAILY charts for C, S, I and F funds include Bollinger Bands, Exponential Moving Averages, RSI, Stochastics, and two MACD settings that I think work best for the type of trading I like to do (short). I look at support and resistance and EYEBALL the trend lines on other charts I keep for 8-month and 1-year daily pricing. On weekends, I look at Weekly Charts, 3 years for a broader view.

I also look at other charts such as Transports (TRAN), Dollar (UUP), TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield), VIX, OEX put/calls (!PCRATOEX), msci momentum factor (MTUM), Nasdaq composite ($COMPQ) which is a overall market breath indicator.

I read the Ira Epstein financial end of day report, Right Side of the Chart videos and GROK trade videos all posted on TSPTAlk by Nnutt!! Thanks Nnuutt!! Read miscellaneous financial articles each day and listen to Fox Business News... Maria Bartiromo for a few mins each morning and ALWAYS listen to her 30 minute Wallstreet show on Fox Business News that comes out each Friday evening, and listen Charles Payne daily (record it---per FBN and watch it each night). If possible, I also look at 15 minute Intraday charts for our TSP funds to see how that action is going--check it at lunch time.

I also read the posts that others on this site post... many folks here that give very good information about markets, their read of the market, tables showing earnings for past 15/60 days, and links to good articles, etc. I never fail to read the TSP talk commentary and CoolHand's posts! They are great and very insightful!!!

If you cannot spend a lot of time or do not wish to get that involved, Tom C has a great Premium Service (TSPTalk Plus) using sentiment and there are a couple other good premium services that are not very costly on this site.


Hope this helps. Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!

OH... and just to make it clear. By finding a bottom, I mean a short term bottom where we may have a very short relief rally... to jump in and out very quickly to make a little coin. Very risky. I think the real bottom may take another month or two... so like many folks, I do believe we are still going to trend down a little longer. Until the Bollinger Band mid-point (20 SMA) starts to slope up, that is when I will start to think things are really going to get back into an uptrend.

I tend to think this whole thing is primarily due to interest rate fears induced by Fed. So their coming out to say something like, we are going to take it easy on future rate hikes, etc . … that could cause market to reverse quickly and move back upward. Obviously other items in news like tariffs and EU is having some effect, but I still think it has to do with interest rates. That has a huge impact on consumer sentiment, buying and debt service and borrowing costs, AND ultimately earnings and revenue. That is a SOLID, QUANTIFIABLE AND REAL IMPACT.

Also been thinking about what is going to happen at the end of December, when European Central Bank stop their QE bond buying program.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ec...018-2017-10-26