Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

What's the upshot? Hold or run? =:-o

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

What's the upshot? Hold or run? =:-o

Good morning Whipsaw,
I am out because I believe it may go down short term. So I am waiting for a drop...a few percent??? Then again, not sure anyone should listen to me as I have had a very crappy year; although September was a success for me with more than 1.3% increase?? or thereabouts.

August was a good month for market and so was September (earlier). I think I posted something a week or so ago (post 22216 - pg 185), that indicated when August is a good return month, September is typically good with a little ugliness in October. I just looked and it seems to indicate down at end of September but then goes up for a week or so in October before taking a little dive.

Obviously, no way to know if that will be true. I prefer to just look at the 4 month daily charts I use now. My read at this point is that it drops a little more... just not sure how much.

Also, I have been looking at the dollar (UUP) and at interest yields lately. Seems some on FBN mention inverted yield curve (that could indicate a recession), but most of them indicate its a ways off...like 1.5 to 2 years after the inverted curve starts... but maybe it could cause a short-term knee jerk type reaction in market when it happens. The Right Side of Chart clearly indicating he thinks there is a drop coming ...I think he is saying ballpart 5-6%. Check out the video he put out yesterday.

To scare you further, I keep hearing there may be quite a bit of "rebalancing" tomorrow??? Hummm… seems to mean it drops but then again, I don't know enough about that. CH watches the breadth, puts/calls (smart money), etc so I would checkout his posts. REVISED: I do not know if CH is in or out of equities right now. He usually does not post that.

As for me, If I were in S fund I would bail... but that is me.....take it with a grain of salt! I just don't like that the Bollinger mid-point (20 SMA) is sloping down, price touched the 50 SMA line yesterday and looks like it wants to slide down further along the lower Bollinger band. Also, the 3 EMA is below 5 EMA... has been like that for awhile. I got into S fund on 9/10 because it looked like price was going to move upward (MACDs) but it failed within a few days and I exited it on 9/17 and moved to more to G, plus more to C and I. Since that time S fund continued to move down. It is just an ugly chart. But, it could bounce up or reverse... if I were in I would be weighing whether to wait for an up day or to just ride it out. Problem for me has always been that when I don't exit at first sign of a dip, I decide to ride it down and back up but then get caught because I just can't handle the dip... happened so much to me in Spring... I think I learned my lesson. I do not have the stomach for those several percent dips. My weakness... but I am learning the hard way. I exit and now resolve to keep an eye for weakness in charts. I think the MACD histogram bars help see that weakness very well.

Wishing you the Best WhipSaw!

Here is a link to S chart.
$DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Thanks DBA! Appreciate the summary, his vids can be long; even when increasing the speed I've found him to be quite bearish, which has impacted my risk tolerance and limited exposure when I should have been in (being on travel didn't help either ). At any rate, I've been tracking his divergent tops, and the re-balancing that was supposed to happen this month due to the realignment of what stocks will make up the NAS (??)... It almost seems that the market is powering through with the strong economy providing a wind at its back. The rate hikes may have a longer term affect, time will tell. At this point, the S is up a little after a week of declining... maybe its rolling over?

Hi Whipsaw, You might want to read my post again... I have been revising it...lol! But I am done now. The market is definitely strong and I would rather be in the market more than being out.... it continues to climb... but I have now committed to following the 4-month charts and trying to not let emotions rule.

I do think it is important to listen to what is going on... sentiment is important. But I also am now starting to believe that market "sentiment" does divulge itself in the market moves... you can read that sentiment in the intraday candles, daily candles and the indicators capture this as well. Obviously there are always some knee jerk reactions to be ignored. But looking at weekly charts, then daily and then intraday is good. Gives a balanced sense of market and where it is going... I am also paying a lot more attention to support and resistance zones. Bottom line: I am following the charts.

Also, FWIW, noticed XLF financial sector ETF has had some large moves downward which has affected the overall market. Looks like that might be ready to start moving up?? so that might help in the next few days, but again, I do not know what the driver is on that. Last week XLF was strong and helped the market. I think it was pricing in the rate hike. Not sure why it started dropping this week...but it has impacted overall market.

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!!

ADDED: LINK TO XLF
XLF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Here is an hourly candle chart for S fund!

$DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

HI WS, Looking at S fund daily chart, it is holding at Support zone (1464-1472) so it could go either way and the Slow Stochastic is down around 20 so that could indicate its near its bottom??? Like I said, it could go either way... But S fund does look like its making lower lows and lower highs... so I kinda like I and C funds better....although I fund starting to look tired.

P.S. Thanks for info on TRSOC's bearish take. I'll keep that in mind when I view those vids. Yes... market is powering through and I think it will continue to do that, but I am expecting some weakness SOMETIME in October... no telling when. But when it does go down, I want to have an IFT ready to jump in.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Thanks DBA! Appreciate the summary, his vids can be long; even when increasing the speed I've found him to be quite bearish, which has impacted my risk tolerance and limited exposure when I should have been in (being on travel didn't help either ). At any rate, I've been tracking his divergent tops, and the re-balancing that was supposed to happen this month due to the realignment of what stocks will make up the NAS (??)... It almost seems that the market is powering through with the strong economy providing a wind at its back. The rate hikes may have a longer term affect, time will tell. At this point, the S is up a little after a week of declining... maybe its rolling over?

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

The Right Side of the Chart video that Nnutt posted today was very good!

Nice video. The speaker in the video recommends staying the course during a rate change. Let others "impulse" sell. Proved true today. The markets are doing very well.

woo...hoo...It's Friday..... A little music to start off the day right! Hummm... Michael Jackson! great music and dance moves! Just love him! . Hope you have a great day!

One more....cuz two is just not enough!

No entry for me today. Charts still don't look promising. I will wait to see evidence of a bottom. I think we are still in an overall bull market, but at least for the short-term we are trending down. It just seems like it could stand to lose more before it starts back up...S Fund price is still hugging the lower band and has not moved away from it. With todays intraday action, we are nearing the bottoms of June and July. So will it stop there or drop more? Don't know.

So FBN has reported that drop is due to increasing 10-yr interest rates and I tend to agree it is kind of a knee jerk reaction on that which may pop back up but I am also thinking folks just want to pocket some gains before the elections. I had hoped to make some coin in October but not sure if that will happen and I am thinking a quick 2-3 day entry, exit is what I will do once I see a bottom.

Best wishes to you all!!!!!

Is the Kavanaugh vote going to affect the market? Not sure …. doesn't seem like todays continuation vote has affected it.. But, either way, it should bolster each side for a November showdown and that outcome will definitely affect the market. I would think that a Democrat majority in house means no chance for a 2.0 Tax cut. I feel confident the market would not be happy about that, but that is just my personal opinion. With all this going on, I just plan to stay out of market during November until the election is over... or at least that is my thinking now.

Hoping to see a bottom soon to make a little coin in October!