Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Good evening,

Well finally checking out charts today....What a drop. Friday's prices were on the bottom band of tight Bollingers, and so now it shows what could be another steep leg down.

This is like the third time or so that China gives its bad news on Monday-Tuesday.

So with this drop, occurring in conjunction with the contracted Bollingers, it looks like we move further down especially with MACD now turned negative below its signal line for both SPX and DWCPF, and Slow Stochastic below 20 and looking embedded. At this point I think maybe we have a bounce tomorrow, and then continue further down, sliding along band.

For, EFA see that Slow Stochastic starting to move upward...so that looks interesting....possible few positive days ahead??

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!!

P.S. Again...would like to buy in for a day, but sooooo risky! I think I will wait....at least for now!

Just looked at charts again. I noticed that there seems to be a double dip going on in the MACD lines now that they are below the zero line. That is not typical... at least not when looking back for years. The last time I see that is in August-October 2011 when SPX dipped below the zero line down to -40 went up and then dropped again. Then it happened again in May-June 2012 where SPX's MACD dropped below zero line to -20 and went up slightly and dipped again before moving on up again. So looks like that is happening again. I was using Free Stockcharts to look at that.

Also see this happened with DWCPF during those same past periods with a double drop in the MACD all while under the zero line. I can't see what happened in 2008 because Big Charts only gives a consolidated decade view and its hard to see and I am not subscribed to Stockcharts (they started limiting how far you can look back).

Also, we are under the Death Cross (50 below the 200) for all of these charts. I think NASDAQ hit it yesterday. So for now SPX, DOW (including DWCPF) and Russell 2000 and NASDAQ are all hitting this...the Four Horseman pattern??? Yes...the Death Cross is a sell signal. Not to say you can't make money on a quick turnaround buy and sell but with our limitations in TSP, and that on top of the Death Cross makes it even more risky! Not to mention that the timing would be VERY critical and very easy to miss. So for now, I am staying out... I'm gonna try to not even think about it.... but I know I will think about it... but NO.. I tell myself... NOoooooo....dooooonnn't do it!!!!

Best Wishes to Everyone on your Investments!!!!!!

OMG...I just looked at charts. I am trying to talk myself into buying in tomorrow at 50%. Why...to catch a short lived Bounce? Sooo risky! Geez... Is anyone else thinking to do this???. I think Alevin is. Just keep thinking that many days down....there must a bounce...a day or two?

Ugghhhh......hope i stay out..

Okay. I'm back in check. Just one look! Patience..... I'm staying on the lilly pad!

Above the Green Line - Sep 29, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Have a nice evening, and Best Wishes to you all on your investments!!!!!!!!!

Hi DBA. Tomorrow is one of those days that screams "STAY OUT" just based on stats over the years. However, with algos in play and BLOOD MOONS who knows what tomorrow will bring. I'm out until we get some further confirmation that we hit bottom. We could still have a leg down to 1820. All the best to you in your investing. Like you said "Patience is a virtue"..

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Hi DBA. Tomorrow is one of those days that screams "STAY OUT" just based on stats over the years. However, with algos in play and BLOOD MOONS who knows what tomorrow will bring. I'm out until we get some further confirmation that we hit bottom. We could still have a leg down to 1820. All the best to you in your investing. Like you said "Patience is a virtue"..

FS

Hi FS.... ugghh... patience is not one of my stronger virtues! I am going in 40-50% this morning... not sure which S or C or combo. Will decide in the next few minutes. I plan to only be in a few days... will see how it goes. I keep thinking that it will be dropping more towards midmonth.. a couple weeks before next Fed meeting. I am just going to close my eyes and cross my fingers and say a little prayer! Girl can't help it... gotta play with fire!

Holy Moly Cannoli!! .. I pulled the trigger.. I am now in 20%S and 20%C. Will see!!!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Holy Moly Cannoli!! .. I pulled the trigger.. I am now in 20%S and 20%C. Will see!!!

DBA, you're not in the AutoTracker??

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

DBA, you're not in the AutoTracker??

That's because I am in TSPTalkplus subscription (but not following signals). I bought a one year back in January... I like the information (really good) and the take on markets ... and I like knowing the sentiment survey signal but alas I pretty much execute without relying on it. I really use information from many places and charts with just a few indicators such as EMAs, Bollingers, Slow Stochastic, and MACD and then always looking at slopes and then consider seasonality, sentiment, news, futures, lunar, and other hunches and leads). I usually try to rely on the technical more. Obviously today is not one of those times...but will see. Today's entry is very high risk...I will be in pins and needles until I get out. Just want to make sure I do not get greedy if it goes up, and overstay my welcome. The market has been brutal. My goal is 1%.

This means I will only be able to use one IFT in October to exit so I will not be able to average out using two moves, so the exit will be critical......as I want to preserve the 2nd IFT of October to hopefully catch the second half of what I believe will be second part of the double dip bottom around mid-October or so. I am thinking that might be the bottom for a little while ...possibly continuing down for a time but possibly having a short term opportunity later in month if prices drop again. Obviously all just speculation based on thoughts that I've heard the market tends to come down a couple weeks before a Fed meeting (or basically anything they say at anytime), etc... and also the lunar exit day is 10/9 (market crash exception) and based on what I have been reading from others about the Elliott Wave.

In any case, I think we will have at least 4.5 months total (or possibly into next year) of short downtrend before we see indicators right themselves. That is just based on seeing how long the last double dip below zero line in MACD downtrends took.. one was 2 months and the other 4.5. So the strategy is still just to catch some DCBs..short buys... risky...until the technical indicators start to display that we are back in an upswing.

I am around 3.15% or thereabouts right now... took a hit in August... got in a day too early and caught a very sharp knife! Ouch... then got out gradually (using two moves) over the next week to avoid a bad exit (unforeseen things that happen after noon). I had been around 4.79 or so. So I have a little cushion but not much...

Best Wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!!!!!

P.S. What is odd is that when Fed did not act, the market sank...which is opposite of what I thought it would do. Then talking heads indicated this was because market took it as no action means economy is bad. Okay ... but the opposite is that if it goes up many are saying that would be detrimental to the global markets. So the Fed is now determining its action based on global effects????? Dang... what the hell.
Then when that Fed guy spoke a few days back saying October was the time for likely hike...or something to that affect, the market reportedly did not like it and dropped. So.... I still find it hard to believe they will increase in October because the economy is not healthy and surely we have not hit the 2% inflation they kept talking about earlier this year. But then again... seems they care more about not affecting the global markets.... Then with them hinting they will raise in October, how can they back down. I still don't have a good sense of how market will react. Anyone have a take on that????

Just my 2 cents on the Fed DBA. They have consistently stated that the rate decision is "data dependent"; meaning wage growth and inflation. So far they've stuck to their word on how they will make the rate decision and I don't think they will change course. So, unless we see a statistically relevant increase in wages or a rise in inflation, I don't think a rate increase will occur in October.

FS

DBA, long time no see, be nimble young lady!!!