Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Good morning, here are charts as of a few minutes ago. I am liking C and I funds, but still thinking about entry. Humm..it does look like C fund wants to pull back a little and I fund seems high. Would really prefer to enter after it drops some...just not sure when that will happen... Ugghhh...patience. I tend to think the money to be made will occur before we get closer to Fed meeting the last week of January, when fear turns up. So, I want to get in sooner rather than later. S fund looks like it wants to move further down...3 EMA now looks to be crossing below 10 EMA and Stochastic has dropped below the 80 line.

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VIX fear starting to tick up since mid-morning.


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Charts update
S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Charts update
S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

I believe I’m detecting a shift into international stocks and probably a sustained duration as US stocks are overvalued. Better opportunities overseas. This article caught my eye. Probably will ride I fund for the year. Expecting correction in US stocks this year. Where else would we put our money? C Fund…oh brother…pie in the sky. 🤣🤣🥴😵

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/is-investing-in-foreign-stocks-a-good-idea-11637941887

Hummm... Article seemed mixed... Indicates there is a high correlation between international and US stocks during bear markets and crashes. Charts indicate I fund is doing best right now, but typically I fund is strong in December and at times in January.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is...ea-11637941887

Was just now looking at charts and that was quite a drop this afternoon that accelerated around 2 PM ET.

I was listening to news and some of this seems likely due to Fed minutes released from last month's meeting, and by bond yield tightening.

The Fed minutes came out today and they are committing to increase pace of taper and looks like rate hike happens in March.

Also, it was reported on Charles Payne this afternoon, by Danielle Dimartino Booth, former Dallas Fed advisor and Ceo of Quill Intelligence, that there is going to be a drop in liquidity from the ending of stimulus, and that realization is starting to show in tightening of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond interest yield curves. There is a flattening of the yield curve during the past 24 hours that is causing concern of coming recession.

I need to look at those charts...


Ok...found this Good article on yields - 2-year Treasury yield jumps to highest level in almost two years as Fed officials eye a more aggressive start to rate hikes

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ng-11641385221

P.S. Yep... Also looks like IF good job numbers are reported on Friday, that may lead to another round of good news being bad for market as good job numbers would mean more people employed, increasing wages/stronger economy and thus more inflation thus bolstering the case for need if higher interest rates....

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Hummm... Article seemed mixed... Indicates there is a high correlation between international and US stocks during bear markets and crashes. Charts indicate I fund is doing best right now, but typically I fund is strong in December and at times in January.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is...ea-11637941887

I've been trying to find the best contrarian stocks to S&P - that is, what is best to be in defensively during a downtrend in S&P and DOW? - both in and out of the TSP.

For the Forum here, i guess this raises the question which is better G or F when C,S, and I are falling in a bear market?

The F-Fund used to run contrary to stocks, though I haven't seen that consistently for some time. When out of stocks, I usually go to G.

MMK, G fund is clearly the safest place within TSP. I equate it to being in cash/on the sidelines.

During major crash, like 2008/2009 (which actually started October 2007 for equities), C Fund dropped about 57.69%. The S fund dropped 59% while I Fund dropped 61%. F funds /bonds dropped around 14.63%. So, next to G fund the F fund was safest during major Stock market/equities drop.

They each recovered to get back to level before start of drops, but recovery periods varied.

C Fund -recovered by April 2013 = 4 years, 1 month (drop started Oct 2007)
S Fund -recovered by January 2011 = 1 year, 10 months (drop started Oct 2007)
I Fund - recovered by June 2014 = 5 years, 1 month although it got close to recovery by May 2013 but then dropped again a bit (Drop started Oct 2007)
F Fund - recovered by December 2008... It had been climbing until Sept/Oct 2008 dropped for a few months while equities were taking major portion of the drop and recovered quickly


Lesson: Buy and Hold can be costly, and that strategy can take a long time to recover losses. While some drops occurred quickly in days and weeks, the overall downtrend lasted 1.5 years. Also, some folks jumped out at bottom and did not get back in for the long recovery. For this reason, I do believe in setting a dollar or percentage loss (stop loss) to try to not ride down a major drop. Every person should set that limit. I am fairly conservative as I get close to retirement, but I do plan to continue investing after retirement... Goal: To live off the yearly earnings and leave principal untouched, Crossing my fingers! I clearly need to get better at investing.


PS ..Agree with you Whipsaw. So, unless F fund is starting to enter an uptrend, I just go to G fund.

Here are charts and must sign out rest of day. Equities were lower earlier but started rising. I like to post closer to 11:30ET because trend seems to change often right in last hour before noon cut off ir thereafter. can't wait today.

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