Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Originally Posted by felixthecat

I don’t know about you, but the Lion King Rafiki quote, “It is Time” comes to mind. Exiting out since I don’t have any time to watch the markets due to yet another tropical system coming. Yikes!

Oh gosh...I hope you weather the storm well Felix. I will say some prayers for you and your family and folks in your area. Take care!

Exited fully. From 15S,85G to 100%G. Best wishes to you all!

Charts...
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Updated...

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Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Exited fully. From 15S,85G to 100%G. Best wishes to you all!

Ditto…Better safe than sorry. Until market continues to drop a couple more days and breaks SPX 4370 multiple tested support, trending remains bullish. Early September triple witching option expiration surely would add more volatility… will watch carefully for reentry next month.



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NAAIM index jumped up from 70.57 last week to 92.83 yesterday. Smart money is looking bullish again...

wow. thats a big move considering...

Originally Posted by eastj

If someone is more familiar with how NAAIM is read, please feel free to correct my observations.

You're correct, it's best used as a contrary indicator and combined with other indicators. With all sentiment indicators, it's the extremes that matter (March 2020). Below 60 has worked well since March 2020. Below 40 seems to be a good long term buy (March 2009 it was under 10). Anything above 95 means market participation is burning pretty hot.

Don't get too caught up in the bullish and bearish readings, just use the NAAIM number at the site. Despite NAAIM's words below, it is widely used as a sentiment gauge.

It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and to stay in tune with what the market is doing at any given time.

Charts for COB Friday...Wow! Great for those who were in!

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CoolHand said the following about NAAIM in his thread post 7685

Originally Posted by coolhand

Attachment 46098

Here is a chart from the NAAIM website where they plot the NAAIM Number. I suspect that the numbers on the left side of the chart can go negative or more positive than what is shown, but that doesn't generally happen. Let's say that 60 is neutral (which it is on this chart). The further above that neutral line the number goes, the more bullish the reading. By the same token, the further lower that the number goes below the neutral line, the more bearish the reading.

For anyone reading this, don't over-analyze the reading. There is some subjectively involved. All you are trying to do is get a sense of how the smart money is positioned overall. Are they collectively bullish, bearish or somewhere in between?

My personal perspective on how I read the weekly NAAIM reading is also shaped by other data that changes week to week (not dramatically), but be aware that I have been using NAAIM for probably 10 years now and nothing takes the place of experience.

Charts as of a few mins ago. What strikes as significant is that the S fund has broken above the longer term (blue box) for tge second time since February. The first break out in June quickly failed. Will see how this one does. As for C fund, it also has broken above a mid-term term trendline established since May this year.

S Fund
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C Fund
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