Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Its nice to see market recovering from skittishness this morning!

I understand Tesla now coming into S&P 500 might have effect on Friday, in addition to Triple Witching. Article I read on Tesla was unclear on market impact. Will check on that more this week. Best wishes to all!

I'm a fan of Elon, he's one of the great innovators of this generation

Definitely Agree Sniper!

Doesn't look like a good idea to Short Tesla!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bi...article_inline

Correction - please disregard comment about Friday.. no triple witching. Too tired late last night when I was reading an old article.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Its nice to see market recovering from skittishness this morning!

I understand Tesla now coming into S&P 500 might have effect on Friday, in addition to Triple Witching. Article I read on Tesla was unclear on market impact. Will check on that more this week. Best wishes to all!

Here are the current charts ... equities look good. Bonds are a stinker!

DWCPF -daily.png

SPX now.png

I FUND - EFA. now.png

AGG now.png

I love DBA charts! They have all of the lines (including the slow stochastics which many don't include). Looks like DWCPF (S) continues to be embedded slow stochastic, in an upward channel with lots of support lines below. Repeatedly going over the top of Bollinger bands though and "oversold" which might indicate a drop to come? With the NAAIM bullish and the VIX still pretty low, seems like S is the place to be, until it isn't. Thanks DBA!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Here are the current charts ... equities look good. Bonds are a stinker!
...

AGG (Bonds) are stinkers, but they will help buffer things when the S Fund corrects.

I don't pretend to know when the S Fund will correct, although it does seem a bit floaty right now. What I think I can say is that if it dumps 8% in a day, with a comparable dump in C and I, I will lose about 4% (because F will go up). I can bail deep into the following day or maybe even the next - which may allow me to see if it is correcting or free-falling. Don't get me wrong, in a normal market I will always have 60% - 80% in C/S/I. Bonds - and especially Social Security Bonds (G) - just kinda suck as a major holding in normal or aggressive markets.

Personally, I just wouldn't want to be letting it all hang out in the most variant of our funds. I had my account dump 8% in an afternoon (after IFT deadline - the morning looked good to go) in 2008 and dump another 8% before COB the next day - which is when my IFT took hold. Not happy with that. I was actually up +7% YTD one day in 2008 and down -11% the next. Not fun, not fun at all. With my current allocation those two crash days would have left me about even or a couple of points down YTD.

Have to agree with you flalaw97. DBA's charts have got it going on!!!

Nice charts DBA

Here are some OLD charts from 2008...might be a little hard to see as these are a full year of daily candles. But what I have taken away from studying this crash plus others is that being in market when 20 dma has crossed below 50dma can hurt a lot!

Also notice that while the biggest drops started in equities right at start of October, the F fund followed down the rabbit hole a few days later....but did recover more quickly, so diversifying would helped. Not sure of percentage losses if comparing the two, but the drops on all charts looked bad....too much red! The key was to not exit once you were too far down, thing is its hard to tell how more the knife will fall.

Also, Not saying you can't make money, but you would have had to artfully navigate the little bounces on the way down. EX. Last half of October, if you had exited before the largest drops. EX2: mid July to mid August. That happened when MACD was above its signal line and moving upward and when Stochastic did that with MACD at tge same time...still very risky!

While that 20 below 50 DNA would have helped in 2008, I'm not sure its as good now because of super fast trading happening now.

2008

DWCPF -daily.png

AGG now.png

I must admit, I don't much like the F fund in GENERAL. However, right now it looks like it might be good since it has dropped a lot, Stochastic dropped below 28 and is now turning up....MACD could follow??? Today's big increase is very nice! I might pull some out if S fund to put into F...not yet sure. hummm.....

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