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Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

  1. #3193

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    When does the Santa rally usually start

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  3. #3194

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Good question. It varies ....it seems to go up the week of Christmas, but it also seems to follow the overall market trend (at least for S fund). This year has been highly unusual. I would not be surprised to see December continue upward, but start of December, for a few days, is green on average at least per my recollection withba little midmonth weakness. Check out tge TSPTalk Market Commentary. At bottom Tom posts tge Seasonality chart for December!

    As usual, I am debating entry and would like to see some pull back....last month that never happened...eeeeeeeeee. I am going to just keep assessing charts, but I can't help but feel being in the market is best. Lots of positive things going on with vaccines, Fed keeping the status quo and likely possibility that many will miraculously decide its okay to send kids back to school so parents can get back to work. Yet, the extreme gains of November mean this market is still very high. Fear of a drop is never far from my mind. ugghhh...I would like to see a little drop before entry.

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    When does the Santa rally usually start
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 12-01-2020 at 08:45 PM.
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 2-26-21=100%S/ 2-1-21=50%S-50%G/ 1-25-21=G100%/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895// www.theepochtimes.com

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  5. #3195

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    DB
    Thank you. (not that you need me to) but, I concur with your sentiment up to the end of the year. my concern going into next year is the disfunction of congress to get a budget and/or relief package passed - and other things mentioned below. I did see the seasonal chart. I also have a chart from a few years ago (can't recall where I got it now - one of the other threads here) - i'll post it below. it agrees with the seasonal chart in that best time to get back in during December is later mid-month. however, I was only thinking of taking advantage of the seasonal rally and then do a wait an see till around February. so, many financial events will happen or come due in Jan/earl Feb time that may have an impact on markets. You have commercial insurance renewals, commercial real-estate loans due or renewing, traditional start of private real-estate market, jobless numbers, another quarter, etc. I'd like to see the direction the market wants to go after that before jumping back in full time. maybe unfounded, but I feel like there is this big drop looming and I don't want to get caught in it.
    sorry this wasn't short. my totally uneducated thoughts.

    BTW - learning a lot from your thread and the other threads you mention. many, many thanks to you and good luck to us all!


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  7. #3196

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk


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  9. #3197

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    I jumped 100%G today


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  11. #3198

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    DB
    Thank you. (not that you need me to) but, I concur with your sentiment up to the end of the year. my concern going into next year is the disfunction of congress to get a budget and/or relief package passed - and other things mentioned below. I did see the seasonal chart. I also have a chart from a few years ago (can't recall where I got it now - one of the other threads here) - i'll post it below. it agrees with the seasonal chart in that best time to get back in during December is later mid-month. however, I was only thinking of taking advantage of the seasonal rally and then do a wait an see till around February. so, many financial events will happen or come due in Jan/earl Feb time that may have an impact on markets. You have commercial insurance renewals, commercial real-estate loans due or renewing, traditional start of private real-estate market, jobless numbers, another quarter, etc. I'd like to see the direction the market wants to go after that before jumping back in full time. maybe unfounded, but I feel like there is this big drop looming and I don't want to get caught in it.
    sorry this wasn't short. my totally uneducated thoughts.

    BTW - learning a lot from your thread and the other threads you mention. many, many thanks to you and good luck to us all!
    Hi MMK, Your comments are very appreciated! The late January/early February timeframe is always interesting. I will be pausing around that time as well. Thank you!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 2-26-21=100%S/ 2-1-21=50%S-50%G/ 1-25-21=G100%/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895// www.theepochtimes.com

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  13. #3199

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Here are updated charts, although the trendlines have not been redrawn. Still interesting how the C fund keeps stopping its upward push right at the shorter term trend line (purple). If it pops through it plus the longer term (blue) trendline it likely will skyrocket like S Fund, or so me thinks!

    Also, S fund looks to be building a high base... While it gained .98% today, it only recovered what it lost yesterday. So, will it break higher..above high base its creating? Futures are up 46 points right now on DOW, so not looking explosive at this time. Will see...

    If it breaks well above today's high, it could mean another leg up but gosh it would be scary to jump in. Right now, the TSPTalk poll for next week is 57% bulls, 27% bears. Very bullish. Long ago, I recall that the TSP sentiment used to be a very good contrarian indicator (which meant market would drop) but maybe not so contrarian anymore???? Looks like its now more in line with NAAIM that Coolhand posts, and that is Bullish. But, I am waiting....not happily, but I'm waiting...


    SPX now.png

    DWCPF -daily.png
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 12-03-2020 at 08:17 PM.
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 2-26-21=100%S/ 2-1-21=50%S-50%G/ 1-25-21=G100%/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895// www.theepochtimes.com

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  15. #3200

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    10,641

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    DBA,
    You would think that the market would relax a little bit just before the Santa Rally, but with the vaccines on the horizon do we sit on the sidelines and wait or take a chance?
    May the force be with us.

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  17. #3201

    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    Cape Cod
    Posts
    152

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    NAAIM remains high, Slow stochastics embedded, continuous upward trading channel, well above all EMA lines. Other than Bollinger Bands (which I haven't quite figured out) it seems like the normal indicators for bullish are there. Plus I think we are finally going to get some movement on a second stimulus and everyone wants to be in when that happens.

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  19. #3202

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    10,641

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    I'm back in the game, 100% S fund. Thought we would see a little more of a pull back. I thought wrong. Hope the month can still get me a little profit.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #3203

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    I dipped in a little yesterday because of fomo and the trend. I too feel like stimulus talks are being more productive and want to be in somewhat when that happens. I simply cannot believe our government will let us down in the middle of a pandemic as we head into the Christmas season. That would be so heartless. I didn't put in more than that because I think we are still stretched so far above the MA's. Good luck to brave souls who went 100%

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  23. #3204

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Welp...here are charts as of a few minutes ago... S fund breaking upward! Wow... C fund still respecting the long term trend line (blue-multiple year line). I dunno...jumping in seems a bit scary.
    Will see....gotta let this sink in...ugghhh.. I'll likely wait until Monday to see if C fund breaks out, although I love S fund.
    DWCPF -daily.png

    SPX now.png
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 2-26-21=100%S/ 2-1-21=50%S-50%G/ 1-25-21=G100%/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895// www.theepochtimes.com


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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk
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DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk
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DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk
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