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Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

  1. #2893

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Here are the remaining charts... same exact settings as 6 month. These are for 4 month daily and 12 month daily.
    New Strategy is to enter and exit using 13 EMA and 20 SMA crossovers, but STILL considering the Full Stochastics especially when MACD is starting to flat line and Stochastics drops below its signal line to go below 80, after the uptrend is starting to get a bit long winded. Note: I do consider the 13 EMA going below the 50 SMA to be an absolute Stop/Exit when market has been in an uptrend.

    Best wishes to you all!!!

    4 Month Daily Charts

    S Fund (DWCPF)
    $DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    C fund (SPX)
    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    I fund (EFA)
    EFA | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    F Fund (AGG)
    AGG | SharpChart | StockCharts.com


    12 Month Daily Charts


    S Fund (DWCPF)
    $DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    C fund (SPX)
    http://schrts.co/jHkFNMwG

    I fund (EFA)
    http://schrts.co/FtcNsXWi

    F Fund (AGG)
    http://schrts.co/vCnKFwDt
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  3. #2894

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    I Decided to also post charts using BigCharts---Whipsaw, I know you still like BC. The slow stochastic is basically same as full stochastic. These charts only use EMAs, as options on Bigcharts.com are a bit limited. Also, no custom smoother second set of Stochastics (14,7,5)---But these are still good! Links can be copied. Best wishes!

    6-Month Daily via BIG Charts

    S Fund=DWCPF
    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...ate=11&x=0&y=0


    C Fund=SPX
    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...te=11&x=64&y=5


    I Fund=EFA
    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...te=11&x=26&y=5


    F Fund=AGG
    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...e=11&x=42&y=10
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-25-2020 at 06:37 PM.
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

  4.  
  5. #2895

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    My new strategy: (Thought twice about posting my “secret” strategy.. but I figure if Double Tree can post their Secret Awesome Cookie Recipe… which I tried a few days ago, I can post my new Strategy…plus I’m pretty sure you’d be crazy to follow it considering my history…lol)

    Rule #1: Enter when 13-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)-same as Bollinger Band mid-point and Exit when opposite occurs. I Should review MACD and Stochastics (20 and 80) for possible earlier or later entry/exits and review of candle patterns and major resistance and support and watch for early exits when 20 EMA or 50 SMA are sloped down. But, the 13/20 crossovers should be my primary indicator.

    Rule #2 – If market is dropping, at minimum, must “Stop” and Exit when 13 EMA drops below 50 SMA to limit losses. You should have already exited if you followed Rule #1 so this is the “Special Rule” for DBA when she insists on being a “Meathead”!

    Rule #3 – If market has dropped enough intraday to likely cause you to go negative for year, you must Exit! Don’t be stubborn DBA! Yes, I do talk to myself all the time…don’t care ...I’m now old enough to claim senility! GET OUT!

    Note: Rule #2&3 are to ensure that losses are kept to a minimum….no riding major drops down (like I did in December 2018...too hard to make up)! This strategy is based on reviewing charts for last few years and crashes of 1987, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and 2020. I know it’s not perfect but it’s not too bad ---at least from what I am seeing. Please do not take this as trading advice! This is just me thinking out loud and I'm definitely not a trader-expert, etc. But I do welcome comments on strategy with one exception: I already know some of you think there are too many lines on my charts, but I like that …plus all the purdy colors! Hey…I need something to stare at and ponder each night before I go to sleep!!!

    Just for the record, I want a strategy that makes me some money, gets me out early enough to minimize losses during large drops, allows me to be invested longer without using a buy and hold strategy, and is something fairly SIMPLE. So, in short, I want it ALL!!!! Lol…. But then again who doesn’t?

    Now the hard part, when do I enter given that 13 is above 20??? Thinking to jump off my Lilly pad… does the water look okay out there?
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  7. #2896

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    Stinking desert valley of bad air quality, AZ
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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Here are the remaining charts... same exact settings as 6 month. These are for 4 month daily and 12 month daily.
    New Strategy is to enter and exit using 13 EMA and 20 SMA crossovers, but STILL considering the Full Stochastics especially when MACD is starting to flat line and Stochastics drops below its signal line to go below 80, after the uptrend is starting to get a bit long winded. Note: I do consider the 13 EMA going below the 50 SMA to be an absolute Stop/Exit when market has been in an uptrend.

    Best wishes to you all!!!
    Any particular reason for using 13EMA and 20SMA?

    PO

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  9. #2897

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Welp… a couple years ago, I read an article that claimed to have done 20+ year analysis with back testing to figure out the best crossover method. It said the best returns were to be made using the 13 EMA and 48.5 EMA, and had comparisons on average earnings/returns shown for various MA crossovers. Document appeared well sourced and based on good methodology, so I decided to place some reliance on it. I have charts with these settings. I look at them every week, but I noticed it just seems that by the time one would exit on a 50 crossover, too much money would be lost.

    So, I started looking at other MA crossovers not tested in that article to look for something that would fit my needs...leave me in market for a time to get me some returns but get me out if a large drop occurs. I do believe that price action is key and MAs can reflect something going on in market that we may not know about or sense... so I started to look at 3/5 and 3/7 and 7/10 and 13/16 crossovers and many others, but settled on 3/5 and 13/16 EMAs... you will see I have used those for about a year...but they did clutter my charts too much and so I wanted something Simpler and Easier to see instantly on charts. (LOL... but then I added in the 100 and 200 to show possible upcoming resistance areas...so much for getting uncluttered! )

    So, I decided to use the 13 and 20 SMA because I have always liked the thought of only being in market when price is above the mid-point of Bollinger Bands (= to 20 SMA) and in studying charts it seems the 13 EMA used with 20 SMA keeps you in the market a good amount of time but gets you out fairly quickly when a fast drop happens....if you don't procrastinate on exit.

    BUT, it does have its downsides. The trade off is that you have more whipsaws (in and outs) when using 13/20 crossovers as opposed to 13/48.5 or 50.. and you can lose some money on those whipsaws, especially when market is having high volatility and trending sideways (e.g. See 2015 chart...that was a tough year!). So, in those periods I have decided I cannot get away from some consideration and reliance on Stochastics and to a lesser extent the MACD. Nothing's ever easy but I am trying to simplify without resorting to strict buy and hold.

    Also, just to make clear, while little whipsaws might lose you money, its nothing like staying in market in a big downturn, like what we just had. This strategy would've had one out of market on February 24 and back in April 7th and still in.

    DWCPF -daily.png
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-25-2020 at 11:54 PM.
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  11. #2898

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    oppsey... I mean Exit on about Feb 26th... would have eaten one big candle if not watching intradays on day before to exit on 25th...but still... nothing like what happened after... Thankfully I was not in it, bur definitely feel for those who were.

    Other thing to keep in mind is that relations with China seem to be going South right now... just waiting for that shoe to drop. So, I'm thinking if I enter market this week, I will be leaning to S fund to avoid companies with the greatest China exposure in C fund. Then again...any bad news would still likely affect it. Also, watchful for China threatening to not buy debt....our treasuries. Not heard latest on that.
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76


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  13. #2899

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Last day of month should not be a factor in decision, but I want ability to exit in June and re-enter. If I recall correctly, we used to have markets go up in last half of June...seemingly after Fed meetings, but not sure that is in play anymore. So here goes.!! 13 EMA still above 20 SMA, just wish I was catching the wave at beginning...will exit if 13 crosses below 20, or if Stochastics start to drop.

    Entering 40%-S fund, 10%-I fund. I expect drop today for buyin and possible drop Monday if China retaliates...but then hope we continue upward as more of country opens. I guess I gotta start somewhere. Crossing my fingers! This is scary!!!
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-29-2020 at 10:56 AM.
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  15. #2900

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Here's a very good article I found on How to Forecast Market Direction. Strategy #3 is good because it talks about market fund rotations between large cap verses small-mid caps in Russell 2000. By using a comparison chart you can see where "smart" money is switching between large cap (SPX=S&P 500, or use SPY) and Russell 2000=IWM ETF, which closely mirrors our S fund (DWCPF).


    https://tradingsim.com/blog/russell-2000-index/
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 05-29-2020 at 11:30 PM.
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  17. #2901

    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Here's a very good article I found on How to Forecast Market Direction. Strategy #3 is good because it talks about market fund rotations between large cap verses small-mid caps in Russell 2000. By using a comparison chart you can see where "smart" money is switching between large cap (SPX=S&P 500, or use SPY) and Russell 2000=IWM ETF, which closely mirrors our S fund (DWCPF).


    https://tradingsim.com/blog/russell-2000-index/
    #3, as you mentioned, was noticeable months ago. We cannot be surprised when this "flip" between the Dow and the small caps takes place. And at least move from the dia or spy to small caps, or vice versa.

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  19. #2902

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Hi JimmyJoe! Yes agree it flipped during the big drop in March. C fund over S Fund. But, I picked S Fund and I Fund over C Fund for latest investment due to exposure of Large caps (S&P 500) to China and upcoming possible more QE? or some kind of help by European Central bank; although C Fund has broken through the 100 SMA... which is very promising. I and S Funds are still just below 200 SMA and so are still hitting that line as resistance. Will see if they can break that line like C Fund. Best wishes to you and everyone!!! !!

    comparison.png

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJoe View Post
    #3, as you mentioned, was noticeable months ago. We cannot be surprised when this "flip" between the Dow and the small caps takes place. And at least move from the dia or spy to small caps, or vice versa.
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 06-01-2020 at 09:25 PM.
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  21. #2903

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Today's charts. S Fund popped through 200 SMA today, but will see if it can stay above it tomorrow. C fund already above this threshold for a few days. I fund is approaching this line of resistance, but just crossed above the 100 SMA.

    S Fund
    DWCPF -daily.png

    C Fund
    SPX now.png

    I Fund
    I FUND - EFA. now.png
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  23. #2904

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    Default Re: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

    Here is F Fund chart. Bollinger bands really tight so looking to see which way it breaks. Not sure what happened Thursday last week with that Super long tail. I guess I missed news on that. Anyone know???? Looking at intraday minutes chart, looks like it happened in first minute of trade.

    Attachment 46309
    Current: 7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30% //Prior: 6-25-20 = 100%G// 6-16-20=G85%-15%S // Strategy & Chart Links=See Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
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