Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Here is an updated spreadsheet for Mstrzerg strategy (as of 9-18-2013), which was previously mentioned in the TSP Millionaires thread (post 167). I think Bucket was testing it...here are the gains for the last transaction period.

Period of Investment - per strategy was to be in S fund.
Returns for this period, which called for exiting September 18

2013

Aug 19

Sep 18

G 0.19%

F 1.31%

C 5.01%

S 6.46%

I 5.47%

What is more interesting is the returns for 4 investment periods over 9 years....see table 2 at bottom of spreadsheet.
This is not investment advise... just testing and tracking results of this strategy.

Note to self: market outlook thread..post 1335 -- return rates for S and C going back many years.

I know this will sound silly but I think I got the right Number. . and strategy to keep myself in this game. Just need to figure when to re-enter the scene. Thinking more on it tonight, and will do some analysis.. Definitely a good chance to re-enter tomorrow. Noticing S fund has a cross candle stick so think that means a big move possible tomorrow, with MACD positive while C fund shows Stochastics way low..but MACD looking to cross negative direction...humm??

Still waiting for better/ lower price for market entry. Watching market action again tomorrow morning. Really did not want to enter on last day of month as it just seems like price goes up on last day month. Entry for C fund might be good now because Stochastics are way low but MACD is just kissing the line to go into negative territory...but it may bounce back up So still seems tomorrow might be good entry before next weeks political games as long as price action in morn is not way up. If Gov shuts down market might drop further (temporarily) next week which would provide a better price entry point. Both C and S funds look like they are ready to go up..bollingers still opening, price bouncing off of the upper band.... I may enter with 30-40% tomorrow and then enter with more next week if/when it drops lower. I don't expect for it to stay low for more than a week...will see!! Good luck to all!! ... Please do not take this as investment advice...just me talking out loud about what I am considering for self.

Just my humble opinion, but I consider this a purely news-driven market until the folks in DC come to some agreement, and that agreement needs to include an increase in the debt ceiling. Once that occurs technicals will be back in play.

I think that tomorrow (Friday) we have a sell off, especially in the last hour, because many folks won't want to be long over the weekend. I don't think there will be a resolution during market hours Monday, but who knows after that. Typically we see some last hour agreement and if that was going to happen the buy-in day would be Monday prior to the deadline.

Many of us don't have a Sept IFT left and a last minute agreement would lead to a big up day tues OCT 1, which would be watched by us from the sideline. No last minute agreement would mean a pretty big down day on tues, and I guess I'd be watching it from home :-)

So in my opinion the best buy-in day depends on when you think DC will come to an agreement.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

So in my opinion the best buy-in day depends on when you think DC will come to an agreement.

your analysis is convincing, i had almost committed in my head to making a balls out all in trade on monday, i have a lot of ground to cover and little to lose. then i read your last sentence and by my calculations that puts the buy in date at, umm, exactly never. or at least not until next friday. which
seems like forever. i'm so confused.

Haha. You may be right. Just because they usually come to an agreement by the deadline doesn't mean they will this time. I can't jump in before Tuesday and I may jump in that day even without a resolution because once they do the markets will quickly regain anything they lose between now and then.

If the resolution doesn't include increasing the debt ceiling then strap in for the roller coaster ride.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

Just my humble opinion, but I consider this a purely news-driven market until the folks in DC come to some agreement, and that agreement needs to include an increase in the debt ceiling. Once that occurs technicals will be back in play.

I think that tomorrow (Friday) we have a sell off, especially in the last hour, because many folks won't want to be long over the weekend. I don't think there will be a resolution during market hours Monday, but who knows after that. Typically we see some last hour agreement and if that was going to happen the buy-in day would be Monday prior to the deadline.

Many of us don't have a Sept IFT left and a last minute agreement would lead to a big up day tues OCT 1, which would be watched by us from the sideline. No last minute agreement would mean a pretty big down day on tues, and I guess I'd be watching it from home :-)

So in my opinion the best buy-in day depends on when you think DC will come to an agreement.

I really do not think Congress will let the govt shut down. It would cause to much chaos. Too many people getting stamps and SS, etc. They could come to an agreement over the weekend which would make today a better buy in day than Monday or Tuesday. Decisions, decisions?

No big tumble at the close. My guess is still for a monday night agreement. It will be interesting.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

No big tumble at the close. My guess is still for a monday night agreement. It will be interesting.

A late agreement would be great! Really do not want to see a shutdown.

Could not jump into market today...just seemed like market going up. Will see if fear sets in Monday....and again may just jump in regardless...yes..decisions..decisions!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

A late agreement would be great! Really do not want to see a shutdown.

Could not jump into market today...just seemed like market going up. Will see if fear sets in Monday....and again may just jump in regardless...yes..decisions..decisions!

I may be eating crow on Tuesday as I said there will be no shutdown. Now I'm not to sure.