Thread: Ebb's Account Talk

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Unofficial results for May 03, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.05%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.22%; EFA (I-fund): +1.28%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.72% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).

TNA: +4.60% (YTD: +38.77%). Bulls take wings and fly.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

I'll have to take your premature evaluations of the I fund fair value with a grain of salt from now on. The I fund rocked today.

Originally Posted by JimmyJoe

I'll have to take your premature evaluations of the I fund fair value with a grain of salt from now on. The I fund rocked today.

JimmyJoe, that's why I call it unofficial. The FV or no FV evaluation I post is from the market movement between 12:00 noon ET and close of market (half a percent usually triggers an FV). Here's the tale of the tape on Friday:

Dow: 14,985 (12:00 pm); 14,973 (4:00 pm). Dropped 12 points!
S&P: 1616 (12:00 pm); 16.14 (4:00 pm). Fell 2 points.
EFA: 62.45 (12:00 pm); 62.55 (4:00 pm). That's a gain of only +0.16%, and far from half a percent.

For the ones who are already in the I-fund, it doesn't matter. Friday's FV of +0.74% turns into an FV baggage of -0.74% on Monday. Only the I-fund jumpers who made the early move on Friday got screwed.

The TSP overlords might have seen an influx of folks going into the I-fund, and decided to punish them. Japan's Nikkei is closed on Sunday night (still on a long holiday), so the I-fund jumpers don't even get to benefit from that (Nikkei comes back on Monday night). Maybe its another oversight by the TSP overlords.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

JimmyJoe, that's why I call it unofficial. The FV or no FV evaluation I post is from the market movement between 12:00 noon ET and close of market (half a percent usually triggers an FV). Here's the tale of the tape on Friday:

Dow: 14,985 (12:00 pm); 14,973 (4:00 pm). Dropped 12 points!
S&P: 1616 (12:00 pm); 16.14 (4:00 pm). Fell 2 points.
EFA: 62.45 (12:00 pm); 62.55 (4:00 pm). That's a gain of only +0.16%, and far from half a percent.

For the ones who are already in the I-fund, it doesn't matter. Friday's FV of +0.74% turns into an FV baggage of -0.74% on Monday. Only the I-fund jumpers who made the early move on Friday got screwed.

The TSP overlords might have seen an influx of folks going into the I-fund, and decided to punish them. Japan's Nikkei is closed on Sunday night (still on a long holiday), so the I-fund jumpers don't even get to benefit from that (Nikkei comes back on Monday night). Maybe its another oversight by the TSP overlords.

Interesting. I'll keep an eye on th FV for Monday. I was relieved that it didn't go bust on Friday after such a great day. Maybe the overlords didn't want to crush us I funders. I have used your evaluations often as I'm in the I fund now. Thanks for the insight and your posts.

Unofficial results for May 06, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.19%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.56%; EFA (I-fund): -0.19%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.35% for the I-fund (no FV tonight). If we add Friday's FV baggage of -0.74%, then the I-fund should be down -1.09%. The I-fund is a bargain for the ones who jumped in before noon today, especially with the Nikkei coming back tonight. But, with the I-fund being too cheap and the Nikkei expected to surge a couple of percent, are the TSP overlords preparing to tack on another +FV?

TNA: +2.05% (YTD: +41.62%). Waiting to exhale.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Unofficial results for May 06, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.19%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.56%; EFA (I-fund): -0.19%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.35% for the I-fund (no FV tonight). If we add Friday's FV baggage of -0.74%, then the I-fund should be down -1.09%. The I-fund is a bargain for the ones who jumped in before noon today, especially with the Nikkei coming back tonight. But, with the I-fund being too cheap and the Nikkei expected to surge a couple of percent, are the TSP overlords preparing to tack on another +FV?

It's official (May 06, 2013): G+0.01%, F -0.10%, C +0.19%, S +0.58%, I -0.21%.

For the I-fund: Friday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.74% was added to Monday's MSCI EAFE of -0.35% (loss -1.09%). But with Japan's Nikkei back tonight and expected to surge at least a couple of percent higher, another FV of +0.88% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price. So today, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.88% at the get-go.

Friday's I-fund jumpers didn't get screwed today because the TSP overlords rectified the situation with another positive FV.

I'm sure glad you know how that all works. It's enough to make my head spin. Do you think Blackrock adjusts the FV based on our funds going in/out or is it only on stuff like the Nikkei futures?

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

It's official (May 06, 2013): G+0.01%, F -0.10%, C +0.19%, S +0.58%, I -0.21%.

For the I-fund: Friday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.74% was added to Monday's MSCI EAFE of -0.35% (loss -1.09%). But with Japan's Nikkei back tonight and expected to surge at least a couple of percent higher, another FV of +0.88% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price. So today, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.88% at the get-go.

Unofficial results for May 07, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.52%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.71%; EFA (I-fund): +0.14%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.92% for the I-fund (no FV tonight). If we add Monday's FV baggage of -0.88%, then the I-fund should be up +0.04%. A price adjustment of +0.04% a day (Friday, Monday and Tuesday) and the I-fund probably ends up with a gain of +0.16%.

TNA: +2.36% (YTD: +46.40%). Buy-and-beholders rejoice.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

Originally Posted by Cactus

I'm sure glad you know how that all works. It's enough to make my head spin. Do you think Blackrock adjusts the FV based on our funds going in/out or is it only on stuff like the Nikkei futures?

They probably factor everything in to get the fair value, and make corrections or adjustments when needed.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Unofficial results for May 07, 2013:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.52%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.71%; EFA (I-fund): +0.14%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.92% for the I-fund (no FV tonight). If we add Monday's FV baggage of -0.88%, then the I-fund should be up +0.04%. A price adjustment of +0.04% a day (Friday, Monday and Tuesday) and the I-fund probably ends up with a gain of +0.16%.

It's official (May 07, 2013): G +0.00%, F -0.04%, C +0.53%, S +0.72%, I +0.10%.

For the I-fund: Monday's FV (fair value) baggage of -0.88% was added to Tuesday's MSCI EAFE of +0.92% (gain +0.04%). A price adjustment of +0.06% made it to the I-fund's final price. Today, the I-fund is all squared up.

I thought the TSP overlords would be more generous with their price adjustment.

How the frig is that considered a "fair value" after every market in the frigging world gained today?!!!
Well Asia is continuing up up and away as I type, so perhaps tomorrow will be a fairer value...

Originally Posted by crommie

How the frig is that considered a "fair value" after every market in the frigging world gained today?!!!
Well Asia is continuing up up and away as I type, so perhaps tomorrow will be a fairer value...

The way things are starting this morning it looks like it will be a fairer value today.