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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #1

    Default FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    After years of polluting other peoples threads figured I'd just start start my own.

    I consider myself 50% Chartist and 50% Economic News Junkie and try to weigh both in before making a decision.

    So with that...despite feeling very bullish with the overall market and economy past few weeks I am pulling out to safety (50% G and 50% F).

    After any runup of 10% or more over a short time period you have to start looking for market topping patterns, otherwise you risk taking 9 steps back after taking 10 steps forward. Well, if things close as they are around the IFT deadline, then we've just finished the 3rd and usually final point of the classic crowning pattern (see S&P chart below).
    I thought Fridays action took us past any forming top, but now it seems that it just formed the 2nd peak, and its been pointed out to me by Mr Bowl that often that 2nd point ends up being the highest.

    So, decided to bail, but also noticed the -F- fund is at a 10 month low, so my parachute is made up of half F as well as half G. Did not want to go "all F" in case this is a false top (which sometimes happen). Will take my 2 to 2.5% YTD and preserve it for what could be our next good runup.

    So with that, the next question is "How Low Will We Go"?

    2 levels come to mind off the charts.
    1st restance level as I see it would be around 1460. This is near both the 50 day EMA (exponential Moving Avg) and Sep-Oct triple peak. This would be about a 3% fall.
    2nd resistance level a bit more ominous...near 1420. This is near the mean trendline of our Nov-Dec levels (minus the brief mid-Nov drop). Also near the 200 day EMA which is what our more significant corrections end up being. Feel that this is the "worst case scenario". this would be a 6% correction

    So my thoughts are most likely somewhere in the middle...around 1440, or about a 4-5% correction.
    Then again I always believe in staying fluid, so if some great economic news comes out, and market blasts past current top, I'll quickly jump back in, but until then...I'm out.



    Feb 5th Chart.PNG
    CURRENTLY 100% S (as of COB 11/26/19) 2ndNov IFT


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  3. #2

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk



    Look forward to reading what you have to say about the markets.

    Looks great so far!

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  5. #3

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Taling a little longer term perspective I don't think it's possible for me to be more bullish. The VIX is going to get punished back to under the 12 level.

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  7. #4

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Glad to see you've started your own thread, great chart!

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  9. #5

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Taling a little longer term perspective I don't think it's possible for me to be more bullish......

    That's called a "Sell Signal".
    But agree that longer term...maybe...just maybe...the secular bull is underway and the dips will be briefer and shallower.
    CURRENTLY 100% S (as of COB 11/26/19) 2ndNov IFT

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  11. #6

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post


    Look forward to reading what you have to say about the markets.

    Looks great so far!

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Taling a little longer term perspective I don't think it's possible for me to be more bullish. The VIX is going to get punished back to under the 12 level.
    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Glad to see you've started your own thread, great chart!
    Thanks guys.

    Birch, now you can come in and slam me on my thread (lol)
    CURRENTLY 100% S (as of COB 11/26/19) 2ndNov IFT

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Fear not I'm here. "The technical breakout on the Dow Transports, which formed a 'line' throughout most of 2012, was so strong the first few trading days in January the indusatrials and the broader market took heart and followed suit."

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38836.html

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  15. #8

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The Crown Topping pattern on the I Fund is a bit ahead of ours.

    Already complete with the initial down move and the weakest of Dead Cat Bounces.
    According to the charts, a potential worst case scenario is along the "bottom trendline" in black, which paralells the 200 Day EMA.
    This comes out to near 55 if we stretch that line out about 2 weeks from today. So that would be about an 8-9% correction from its peak, or about 5-6% lower than today, but its starting to fall over pretty rapidly so who knows where it will end up.

    Bueller??...Bueller??.......Birchtree??...
    Birchtree??

    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 02-06-2013 at 01:43 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% S (as of COB 11/26/19) 2ndNov IFT

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    pullback is inevitable, looking at charts it's been wanting to do that for a few days now. the fed is oh so tricky though, will helicopter ben save the market? haha

    with that said, i think the pullback won't be that much, maybe closing the gap at 84.43 (IWM) and then shooting back up
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The 200 EMA does have a nice upward trend that is not going to change rapidly - stay with the trend.

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    EFA is a tricky, without the sheer volume the other major ETFs have, it's a difficult chart to provide analysis for, throw in the countless countries/denominations and it's difficult to comprehend why we bother playing the I-Fund.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The I fund is going to earn my tugboat a great deal of money this year - invest where most people fear to tread.

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