Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Great job!

Feeling good exiting last Thursday, just before the "Big Flush".
That was my 1st Aug IFT...and with one still in hand, and markets down near 1% this morning, I plan on using my 2nd IFT to go back into equities.
Things have changed from my bullish stance a week ago, namely Oil up nearly 10% from its recent low, because falling oil prices were playing on lowering inflation.
That will still likely be the overall trend in the coming weeks/months, but its creating some uncertainty now in the short term.

Powells speech, nothing unexpected made the Dow drop 1,000 points Fri, and indices were down 3-4%.
Now with near another 1% drop today...Cramer on CNBC made an interesting point "with this huge drop along with today...who still has not sold based on Powells hawkish speech?" implying that we might run out of sellers soon in the short term.

A look at the S&P chart (below) shows that with todays drop we're just about at the same "drop length" of our initial drop,and for charters, thats a good short term tool for a "short term reversal.
This level also lines up with an old "Open Gap" on the indices, not sure how relevant it might be now...but its there.
Plus my system is screaming at me to get in, to lock in my recent 4% gain on the markets, as YTD I'm now 7% above the F, 12% Above the C, 17% ahead of the S, and the only way I keep this lead on equities is to stay in them.
So while I could be trying to catch a "Falling Knife" or "Running Into a Burning Building" I'm using my 2nd Aug IFT to go back into stocks (50% C and 50% S) COB Today.
Could just be a 1-2 day play, or it could be longer, depends a lot on what the price of Oil does.

SP.jpg

Very brave move! I hope you hit a home run!!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

CPI disappointed...no short term catalysts until FED speech next week, so will try to lock in (err "save") Sep gains, before they vanish.

Leaving 50/50 S & C position and going 100% G COB Today.

Hi all, was having computer issues in the few minutes b4 the IFT deadline, so had to scramble and use my phone, which I rarely use to make IFT's.

So did not have a chance to post here, but in short, with our recent 6% downturn the past 7 days (where I've spent most of it on the -G- Lilly pad, minus the 1st big down day) and the 12% downturn off the recent relief rally high, I felt that most of the potential "Bad News" was already baked in.
With stocks going modestly higher INTO the Fed announcement this AM, I figured either:
1) A confirmation of "Bad News" would send the market sharply lower the last 2 hrs of the Fed announcement, fully baking in all negative news or
2) A surprise "Good Vibe" from the Fed in any positive comments would make the market go up higher, and then leave room for some short term follow thru upward the next 1-3 days.

My system simply calls for me to make small gains on the major indices and since exiting to the G a week ago, I "gained" on the C,S,I funds by having them drop an additional 2+ percent, seeing my lead on the C fund increase to near 13% and 19% on the S fund. Even 7% ahead of the F.
So with that, my system is screaming for me to get back in, regardless of what the market does next.
Speaking of that, a quick peek at the S&P chart (below) shows our 12% fall off the Relief Rally high and 6% recent drop the past week...and shows we are about 1 to 2% or so from filling the most recent open gap on the charts.
So that made me decide to go leave my 100% G position, and go 100% C starting COB today.
Hoping for a sharp fall from todays FED announcement to fill that gap by COB hopefully then get a snap back in the next day or two.

SP.jpg

Someone should call the Treasury and Administration. There is very basic advice that all financial folks know:

Don't

Fight

The

FED

Good luck with some bounce gains. That cat is disintegrating by now

Originally Posted by Boghie

Someone should call the Treasury and Administration. There is very basic advice that all financial folks know:

Don't

Fight

The

FED

Good luck with some bounce gains. That cat is disintegrating by now

Yes true...IN THE LONG RUN.
Another saying is "YOU BUY WHEN THERE'S BLOOD IN THE STREETS".
In that last hour there was a Raging River of Blood pouring down Wall ST ( >2.5% drop from intra day high to final close.).

Today's 1.7% total finalized drop is EXACTLY what I wanted. My entry into Stocks starts after today's close.
Today's last hour drop pretty much filled that open gap....puts us 14% down from the recent Relief Rally peak, and 8% down in the past 9 days.
This is usually when the Cat actually starts its bounce.

SP.jpg

We can only hope. Hopefully for a few days.

Tom doesn't like me to give away the exact parameters, but I will just show the numbers so far (its early) and say I have NEVER seen it this extreme.

Survey.jpg

This tells me Big Snap Back Rally coming soon...better get onboard the train...because it tends to pull away from the station faster than most people can digest and react to.

I can only hope for a snap back rally. I'm getting pummeled.

There's a final gap at 3715-3674.

Interesting note on the sentiment poll but I'm very leery of any sentiment data in a bear market. AAII has been throwing buy signals since March 2022 with at least four stronger than anything seen at the forced shutdown bottom in 2020. NAAIM has been pretty much useless in the intermediate term as well throwing buy signals since March. Long term, the market could be carving out a major bottom, but with tech so reliant on low rates, something is going to have to take the reigns after a decade of tech rule.